Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#273
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#244
Pace70.4#163
Improvement+4.5#6

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#299
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#245
Layup/Dunks-2.3#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#38
Freethrows-3.2#330
Improvement+1.9#41

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#216
First Shot-4.6#321
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#25
Layups/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#363
Freethrows+1.2#115
Improvement+2.6#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.2% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 21.1% 30.7% 13.5%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 54.5% 43.6%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 5.0% 8.2%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
First Round3.4% 4.7% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 44.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 411 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 21 @North Carolina L 54-94 2%     0 - 1 -21.9 -13.9 -5.2
  Tue, Nov 11 22 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     0 - 2 -19.0 -11.4 -5.4
  Sun, Nov 16 228 Samford L 77-84 OT 53%     0 - 3 -14.0 -5.8 -7.7
  Thu, Nov 20 145 @North Texas L 56-74 17%     0 - 4 -14.2 -11.7 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 23 251 Eastern Washington W 92-65 57%     1 - 4 +19.0 +10.3 +8.0
  Tue, Nov 25 325 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 72%     2 - 4 +8.8 +12.9 -2.0
  Sat, Nov 29 115 @East Tennessee St. L 57-80 12%     2 - 5 -16.6 -13.8 -2.3
  Wed, Dec 3 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 85-47 68%     3 - 5 +27.0 +6.2 +20.0
  Sun, Dec 7 300 @East Texas A&M L 69-70 44%    
  Sat, Dec 13 12 @Vanderbilt L 64-92 1%    
  Sun, Dec 21 40 @SMU L 66-87 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 348 Stetson W 77-68 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 292 @Bellarmine L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 74-78 36%    
  Thu, Jan 15 275 Jacksonville W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 343 North Florida W 83-75 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 285 @West Georgia L 71-73 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 200 @North Alabama L 68-75 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 199 @Queens L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 258 Eastern Kentucky W 77-75 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 200 North Alabama L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 164 @Lipscomb L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 292 Bellarmine W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 285 West Georgia W 74-70 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 348 @Stetson W 74-71 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-80 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 182 @Austin Peay L 67-75 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 199 Queens L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.3 1.8 0.2 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.9 3.5 0.4 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.1 4.7 0.6 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.3 7.1 10.3 12.4 14.2 13.4 11.8 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.5% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 42.9% 42.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 29.6% 29.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 25.4% 25.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.0% 15.5% 15.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.7
13-5 4.1% 14.8% 14.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.5
12-6 6.5% 9.7% 9.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 5.8
11-7 9.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.7
10-8 11.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.1 0.7 11.1
9-9 13.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.1
8-10 14.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.0
7-11 12.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-12 10.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.2
5-13 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 4.3% 4.3
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 96.0 0.0%