Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.9 189
Results Rating -0.2 161
Consistency 0.17 274
Pace 72.3 82
Improvement -4.6 335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 107 B- B- C- D D
Defense D 303 C C- C D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 348 B+ 65% 42 -2.3 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 141 C 38% 162 +1.9 81
Three Pointers 44% 116 B- 36% 110 +2.8 86
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 321 B +3.5 73
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 104
Second Chance C 30.8% 166 B 1.12 55 B- 0.35 97
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 278
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 118
Turnovers C- 17.2% 215
Freethrows D- 0.25 338 C 73% 181 D 0.18 320
Total Offense C+ +2.5 107

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A- 64% 12 C 11.0% 177
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 233 B- 4.0% 113
Three Pointers D+ 79% 287 C- 1.0% 242
Total B- 60% 87 B- 4.8% 98


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 277 D+ 61% 262 -0.8 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 94 B 35% 59 +0.1 201
Three Pointers 42% 148 D+ 36% 260 +1.4 260
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 88 C- +1.2 229
1st FG Attempt C 1.04 200
Second Chance D- 34.5% 328 B- 0.97 84 C- 0.34 243
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 233
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 95
Turnovers C 16.6% 183
Freethrows D 0.35 314 C 73% 196 D 0.26 310
Total Defense D -4.4 303

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 92 B- 13.5% 81
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 168 B+ 8.2% 38
Three Pointers B- 80% 66 C 0.9% 154
Total C+ 53% 118 B- 7.0% 71

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.6 34 18.0 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 87 0.18 212
Consistency 0.13 233 0.15 324
Improvement +3.1 51 -7.6 365

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 207 193 174
Results Rating Rank 178 167 139
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22% 45% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round22% 45% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 411 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 193 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 39% +5  87% 1 - 0 B- +7 F+ -9 B+ C- F A+ +15 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 151 @Toledo W 85 - 73 30% -1  34% 2 - 0 A- +15 B+ +8 A+ D- D- A- +7 B- B+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 242 Elon W 96 - 89 71% +6  95% 3 - 0 C -1 B +6 B+ A+ D D- -7 D+ C- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 21 @Virginia L 78 - 104 3% -20  0% 3 - 1 D+ -6 B +7 C A+ D- F -11 D+ D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 88% +5  50% 4 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 A+ F B- B +5 A C B
 Sun, Nov 23 291 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 79% +5  87% 5 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 B F+ C B- +2 A- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 195 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 62% -17  0% 5 - 2 F -28 F -17 F B F F+ -9 F A- B
 Wed, Dec 3 106 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 20% -1  31% 5 - 3 B- +6 B +6 C- A+ F+ C+ +0 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 221 @Ohio L 81 - 88 45% -6  0% 5 - 4 D+ -8 C+ +2 D+ B C- F+ -9 D- C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 130 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 47% +7  71% 6 - 4 A- +15 B- +4 C- B+ A+ A+ +11 B A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 161 Wright St. W 76 - 74 55% -1  28% 7 - 4 C -1 B- +5 C A C- D -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 150 @Troy L 63 - 70 30% -6  10% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C- -4 F -11 F D+ F+ A- +7 A B B
 Wed, Dec 31 305 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 82% +2  61% 8 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -8 C- -1 C+ A F+ D- -7 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 172 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 58% +8  92% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ D- B F+ -9 D- D- C
 Wed, Jan 7 207 @James Madison W 66 - 64 41% +8  96% 10 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +3 C- -1 F A- B+ B +4 A D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 305 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 64% +3  56% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D- -14 D- -7 D- B- F D -6 B+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 228 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 68% -5  17% 10 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 B+ +8 A D+ A- F -17 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 207 James Madison W 77 - 72 64% -0  59% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C -0 C -0 D A- F C -0 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 22 354 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 92% +28  97% 12 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +38 A+ +23 A+ A+ D A+ +12 A+ C C-
 Wed, Jan 28 232 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 47% -4  21% 12 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -5 D -5 D F+ A+ C -0 C F C
 Sat, Jan 31 146 @Arkansas St. W 70 - 61 29% +4  76% 13 - 8 6 - 4 B+ +13 C+ +3 C B F+ A +11 A+ A C-
 Wed, Feb 4 225 Southern Miss W 81 - 77 68% -2  29% 14 - 8 7 - 4 C- -3 B+ +9 A B C+ F -12 D D- B
 Sat, Feb 7 90 Miami (OH) L 74 - 90 31% -13  0% 14 - 9 D- -13 C- -2 D+ C+ B- F -11 C- F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 244 @Old Dominion W 81 - 79 49% -7  10% 15 - 9 8 - 4 C +0 B- +4 A+ F C D+ -4 D D D-
 Sat, Feb 14 260 @Georgia Southern L 87 - 101 53% -11  13% 15 - 10 8 - 5 F+ -17 C +0 D+ F B+ F -16 F C+ B-
 Mon, Feb 16 186 South Alabama W 84 - 80 61% +8  89% 16 - 10 9 - 5 C -1 A +14 B+ A A+ F -15 F F B
 Thu, Feb 19 172 @Appalachian St. W 94 - 93 35% -6  8% 17 - 10 10 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +26 A+ B A+ F -23 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 228 @Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 46% -8  0% 17 - 11 10 - 6 C- -5 D+ -3 F B+ C- C -1 B- C- B-
 Tue, Feb 24 244 Old Dominion W 97 - 88 71% +7  96% 18 - 11 11 - 6 C +1 A+ +15 A+ B- A F -14 C- F F
 Fri, Feb 27 260 Georgia Southern L 82 - 99 74% -1  31% 18 - 12 11 - 7 F -26 C- -1 B- B- C- F -24 F F F
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 -2 C+ +3 A- B D D -4 B- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B+ C B- B 31% 41% 44% D B- C B B- C- D- C D D D+ B D+ C- 35% 23% 42% B- C D- B- C- C D C D
1.12 65% 38% 36% +3 -1 1.07 31% 1.1 .35 17% .25 73% .18 1.15 61% 35% 36% +1 -1 1.04 35% 1.0 .34 17% .35 73% .18
Nov
3		 Massachusetts F+ A+ F C B+ 33% 14% 53% C B+ A- F C- F D C D A+ C+ D- B+ B- 43% 22% 35% C- C+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A F
0.96 82% 29% 33% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.8 .29 32% .34 74% .25 0.88 57% 45% 29% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.4 .10 25% .58 58% .34
Nov
8		 Toledo B+ A+ F A+ A+ 25% 10% 65% C- A+ C+ F D- D- D+ D D+ A- A+ F C B 41% 29% 30% C+ B- F A+ B+ A F+ D F+
1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14 1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 Elon B B C- A+ B+ 31% 15% 54% C B+ D A+ A+ D A- D B D- F A B D+ 37% 7% 56% C D+ C- C C- D- D+ C- D+
1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24 1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24
Nov
15		 Virginia B D A+ F C 28% 30% 42% D+ C B A+ A+ D- A+ B+ A+ F B- C F D+ 42% 13% 45% C- D+ B+ F D- D- F C F
1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31 1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39
Nov
20		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B A+ D- A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% F A+ F+ F F B- D- B+ D+ B F+ C+ A+ B 17% 50% 33% A+ A C C C B F D+ F
1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26 0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33
Nov
23		 Mercyhurst D+ D+ F A+ A- 25% 18% 57% D- B D+ F F+ C F+ A+ D+ B- C B+ A+ A 40% 34% 26% D+ A- F+ A+ C+ C F A+ C-
1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25 0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Lipscomb F D- F F F 35% 22% 43% C F C- A+ B F A A- A+ F+ F+ C+ F F 37% 17% 46% B F A- A A- B F A+ F
0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28 1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27
Dec
3		 UNC Wilmington B A+ C+ F B- 17% 42% 42% F C- B A+ A+ F+ F A+ D+ C+ F+ A+ A- A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ F A+ B- F F D- F
1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18 1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51
Dec
6		 Ohio C+ A- D F D 48% 11% 41% B+ D+ B- B B C- C+ C+ C+ F+ A+ F F F+ 33% 24% 43% C+ D- B- C C+ D- F C+ F
1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25 1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31
Dec
10		 Western Kentucky B- D+ B- C+ C+ 26% 40% 34% F C- B+ B- B+ A+ F D+ F A+ B- A- B+ B 35% 27% 38% A- B D+ A+ A+ B- D B D+
1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17 0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Wright St. B- A+ B D B- 25% 27% 48% F C A- B A C- C A B- D D A- F F+ 24% 29% 47% A+ D+ F A+ A+ F A+ A- A+
1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25 1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07
Dec
20		 Troy F A F F F 25% 26% 49% F+ F B F D+ F+ D+ F+ D A- A+ A+ B- A+ 47% 4% 49% F+ A B- B+ B B F F F
0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16 1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33
Dec
31		 Georgia St. C- A+ F D C+ 33% 16% 51% C C+ D- A+ A F+ A- F C+ D- F D+ B F+ 23% 38% 40% A D F+ D- F C+ F F F
1.12 76% 25% 31% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.8 .48 20% .37 64% .23 1.07 67% 40% 29% -1 -3 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 17% .37 87% .32
Jan
3		 Appalachian St. A B- A- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D A+ F+ D D- B A+ C+ A+ F+ F+ F B- F 33% 27% 41% A D- D D- D- C F A F
1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29 1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29
Jan
7		 James Madison C- F A+ F F+ 29% 27% 43% F+ F B- A A- B+ D- B- D B C A+ A A 35% 19% 46% B- A F B+ D+ C+ B A A-
1.07 33% 50% 27% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.2 .41 10% .29 75% .21 1.03 59% 22% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.9 .33 18% .26 62% .16
Jan
10		 Georgia St. D- C F D D 34% 20% 46% D+ D- B- C B- F A F C+ D B+ C A+ A- 31% 26% 43% D+ B+ F F F B F F+ F
0.99 59% 30% 30% -4 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 23% .39 59% .23 1.10 46% 36% 22% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.4 .56 19% .66 85% .55
Jan
14		 Coastal Carolina B+ B- B- A+ A+ 20% 52% 28% F A B- F D+ A- D F F+ F F F F F 33% 24% 43% D F A+ F B- B- D F F
1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16 1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 James Madison C C F B- D+ 35% 28% 37% D- D A+ D- A- F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- D C+ 26% 23% 51% A B F D+ F B+ F+ B+ D
1.13 56% 23% 35% -4 -1 0.91 46% 0.9 .41 19% .51 82% .42 1.05 42% 36% 38% -2 -1 0.96 36% 1.1 .40 20% .37 65% .24
Jan
22		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C F A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D F A F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C A+ C C+ C C- F C F
1.55 63% 25% 51% +18 +1 1.39 54% 1.3 .71 18% .15 78% .11 0.81 28% 50% 17% -20 0 0.62 24% 1.0 .24 16% .47 72% .34
Jan
28		 Texas St. D A C- F D 40% 25% 35% D D F B- F+ A+ F F F C B+ A+ F C+ 48% 24% 28% F+ C C+ F F C F+ A D+
0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11 1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas St. C+ C+ D A+ B- 27% 38% 35% F C A- C- B F+ D A+ C A D- A+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C- A+ D- A+ A C- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23 0.96 67% 20% 19% -13 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31
Feb
4		 Southern Miss B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 32% 30% 38% F A C+ A B C+ B C- B- F F A+ F F 12% 35% 53% A+ D F A D- B F B F
1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27 1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40
Feb
7		 Miami (OH) C- A+ F F D+ 32% 20% 48% C D+ A F C+ B- C+ F D F F A+ F D+ 40% 23% 36% B- C- F F F B+ D C- D
1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17 1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28
Feb
11		 Old Dominion B- A C- A+ A+ 38% 25% 36% D+ A+ F F F C F+ F F D+ D- F C+ F+ 32% 36% 32% B+ D B+ F D D- A A+ A+
1.15 71% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 14% .28 65% .18 1.12 67% 45% 33% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.6 .32 13% .21 62% .13
Feb
14		 Georgia Southern C F+ B+ B C- 34% 19% 47% D D+ F+ F F B+ C+ B B- F D- A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D+ F D- A C+ B- F F F
1.12 50% 45% 37% +1 0 1.03 27% 0.8 .22 15% .38 80% .31 1.30 63% 25% 48% +13 +2 1.31 31% 0.9 .28 17% .50 81% .40
Feb
16		 South Alabama A A+ F+ B- A 14% 12% 74% D B+ C- A+ A A+ F F F F F A C- F 47% 29% 24% A- F F A+ F B A D B+
1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10 1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16
Feb
19		 Appalachian St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 25% 43% D A+ D+ A+ B A+ A- C+ A- F C- F F F 35% 5% 60% F F F F F F F F F
1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24 1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47
Feb
21		 Coastal Carolina D+ D- D+ F F 34% 36% 30% D+ F C+ A B+ C- D+ A+ B C C+ A C B- 30% 34% 36% B B- F A C- B- F B- F
1.00 48% 36% 22% -9 -2 0.79 30% 1.2 .36 13% .28 89% .24 1.05 53% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.88 36% 0.8 .27 17% .55 71% .38
Feb
24		 Old Dominion A+ A+ A+ D- A+ 28% 32% 40% F A+ D+ A B- A F A- F F D C- A+ C 47% 28% 26% D C- F D F F D+ F F
1.34 88% 79% 29% +19 -2 1.35 29% 1.3 .36 10% .15 80% .12 1.22 63% 38% 27% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.2 .46 11% .31 90% .28
Feb
27		 Georgia Southern C- A B- C- B 41% 24% 35% D- B- F A+ B- C- B- F+ C F F+ A+ F F 42% 15% 44% C F D- F F F D- F F
1.14 71% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 23% 1.7 .40 20% .40 70% .28 1.38 65% 13% 46% +7 +1 1.18 32% 1.8 .58 11% .38 83% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.9 9.3 11.1 1.0 77.7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 14.5 77.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.3% 100.0% 14.5 4.0 41.8 49.7 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 27.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 50.2%