Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#170
Expected Predictive Rating+2.7#141
Pace75.1#51
Improvement-3.0#341

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#189
First Shot-1.8#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#132
Layup/Dunks-5.4#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#89
Freethrows-1.3#251
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#170
First Shot-4.0#308
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#12
Layups/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#136
Freethrows-4.5#354
Improvement-2.2#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.8% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 86.0% 92.9% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 87.6% 80.2%
Conference Champion 16.3% 20.4% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.9% 15.8% 10.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 175 @Massachusetts W 78-72 39%     1 - 0 +7.8 -3.1 +10.1
  Sat, Nov 8 173 @Toledo W 85-73 39%     2 - 0 +13.9 +9.0 +4.8
  Wed, Nov 12 223 Elon W 96-89 71%     3 - 0 +0.3 +7.2 -7.5
  Sat, Nov 15 26 @Virginia L 78-104 5%     3 - 1 -8.6 +5.2 -11.8
  Thu, Nov 20 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-70 93%     4 - 1 +10.9 +9.7 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 328 Mercyhurst W 69-60 86%     5 - 1 -3.6 -1.7 -0.9
  Wed, Nov 26 164 Lipscomb L 67-90 60%     5 - 2 -26.7 -13.0 -11.4
  Wed, Dec 3 109 @UNC Wilmington L 69-70 22%     5 - 3 +6.1 +6.6 -0.6
  Sat, Dec 6 194 @Ohio L 79-81 44%    
  Wed, Dec 10 123 Western Kentucky L 80-81 47%    
  Sat, Dec 13 160 Wright St. W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Dec 20 146 @Troy L 73-78 34%    
  Wed, Dec 31 334 Georgia St. W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 283 Appalachian St. W 74-65 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 169 @James Madison L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 334 @Georgia St. W 78-71 72%    
  Wed, Jan 14 260 Coastal Carolina W 79-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 169 James Madison W 78-75 61%    
  Thu, Jan 22 357 Louisiana Monroe W 85-69 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 165 South Alabama W 74-71 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 232 @Texas St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 155 @Arkansas St. L 79-83 36%    
  Wed, Feb 4 219 Southern Miss W 80-74 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 220 @Old Dominion L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 226 @Georgia Southern L 79-80 50%    
  Thu, Feb 19 283 @Appalachian St. W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 260 @Coastal Carolina W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Feb 24 220 Old Dominion W 79-73 69%    
  Fri, Feb 27 226 Georgia Southern W 83-77 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.9 4.7 2.6 0.9 0.2 16.3 1st
2nd 0.4 3.1 5.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.6 4.1 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.7 1.3 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.3 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.8 0.4 6.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.8 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.5 10.2 12.9 14.6 14.6 12.3 9.2 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.5% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 95.4% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.2% 4.7    3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.8% 4.9    2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.2% 2.4    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 9.4 4.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 59.7% 59.7% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 46.0% 46.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.8% 37.8% 37.8% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.8% 36.1% 36.1% 13.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-4 9.2% 29.9% 29.9% 14.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.0 6.4
13-5 12.3% 23.3% 23.3% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 9.4
12-6 14.6% 12.9% 12.9% 14.5 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 12.7
11-7 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 13.6
10-8 12.9% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 12.5
9-9 10.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0
8-10 7.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 7.4
7-11 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 5.4 3.6 0.5 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.1 8.0 76.0 16.0