Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #263
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #251
Pace 67.0 #236
Improvement +1.0 #131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #299 D- D+ D- C- D+
Defense #204 D- B- B- D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #27 1.09 #257 +2.7 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.78 #134 +4.2 #24
Three Pointers 24% #365 0.79 #361 -11.4 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #306 -4.6 #307
Freethrows 15.9 #277 75% #104 11.9 #235
Second Chance 32.1% #141 0.89 #343 0.29 #243
Turnovers 18.7% #316
Total Offense -4.7 #299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.22 #261 -4.6 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #309 0.63 #25 +2.6 #16
Three Pointers 40% #218 1.16 #338 -2.3 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #308 -4.2 #309
Freethrows 20.2 #306 72% #170 14.5 #300
Second Chance 29.8% #142 0.96 #69 0.29 #99
Turnovers 17.8% #92
Total Defense -1.0 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #283 1.9% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.6% #300 6.2% #296
Possession Length 17.8 #218 17.1 #145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #112 0.18 #210
Improvement +0.8 #135 +0.2 #175

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.4
.500 or above 36.9% 57.3% 26.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.5% 62.6% 29.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 413 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 129 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 16% -13  0 - 1 -30 -22 F F F -8 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 172 @Tulane L 71 - 79 23% +6  0 - 2 -6 +3 D- B B- -9 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 345 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 81% +10  1 - 2 -4 +0 F A A- -4 C D+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 335 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 79% +12  2 - 2 -4 -4 F A+ F -1 D A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 258 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 60% +11  3 - 2 +6 -5 D- F F +13 A+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 21 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 66% +5  4 - 2 -1 -8 C F F +8 A- A A-
 Fri, Nov 28 121 Seattle L 52 - 66 21% -5  4 - 3 -11 -7 C F D -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 307 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 61% +1  4 - 4 -12 -3 D- D+ F -9 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 239 @Rice L 72 - 77 34% -2  4 - 5 -6 -0 D F C -6 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 246 Southern W 86 - 83 58% -2  5 - 5 -5 +2 A+ F F -7 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 145 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 37% -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -21 -7 F C- D+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 191 South Alabama W 67 - 65 48% -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -2 F A- D+ -1 C A- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 112 @Troy L 80 - 100 13% -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -14 +12 C A+ D -27 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 75% +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -8 +1 F A F -9 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 244 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 35% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -12 -8 F C- D+ -3 D- B B-
 Sat, Jan 10 145 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 18% -5  7 - 9 2 - 4 +3 +2 D+ A+ F +1 B- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 312 Louisiana W 59 - 54 73% +5  8 - 9 3 - 4 -7 -8 A- F F +2 C- B- C
 Sat, Jan 17 244 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 58% +3  9 - 9 4 - 4 -1 -2 C F F +1 C A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 36% -3  9 - 10 4 - 5 -4 -0 F D A+ -4 C- B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 231 @James Madison L 69 - 74 33%
 Wed, Jan 28 163 Marshall L 73 - 75 41%
 Sat, Jan 31 240 Old Dominion W 73 - 71 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 251 @Georgia Southern L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 260 Western Michigan W 74 - 71 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 112 Troy L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 68 89%
 Thu, Feb 19 191 @South Alabama L 64 - 71 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 312 @Louisiana W 65 - 64 52%
 Fri, Feb 27 206 Appalachian St. W 66 - 65 51%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -6 -5 D- D+ D- -1 D- B- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 2.4 0.2 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.3 0.8 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 5.3 3.6 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 8.6 0.8 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 6.7 4.8 0.1 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 2.3 9.6 1.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.4 7.7 5.4 0.0 13.5 10th
11th 0.1 3.1 8.1 0.7 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 5.6 2.3 0.0 9.0 12th
13th 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 3.2 11.0 20.6 24.4 21.0 12.8 5.3 1.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 24.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 24.1% 24.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.3% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-7 5.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-8 12.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.6
9-9 21.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.1 0.0 20.9
8-10 24.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 24.3
7-11 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
6-12 11.0% 11.0
5-13 3.2% 3.2
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%