Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.5 112
Expected Predictive Rating +5.5 90
Pace 78.1 13
Improvement -4.2 333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #64 B- B- B- B C+
Defense C- #234 C+ D+ C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 150 61% 103 +1.8 112
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 242 43% 49 -0.3 193
Three Pointers 43% 138 35% 132 +1.8 114
1st FG Attempt 1.08 85 +3.3 86
Second Chance 32.3% 131 1.15 49 0.37 72
Turnovers 15.6% 100
Freethrows 0.33 109 76% 47 0.25 69
Total Offense +5.4 64

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 19 54% 75 -2.4 264
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 28 38% 191 -2.6 343
Three Pointers 27% 365 36% 265 +6.3 4
1st FG Attempt 0.99 128 +1.4 128
Second Chance 32.6% 271 1.06 237 0.34 259
Turnovers 15.8% 244
Freethrows 0.29 139 73% 247 0.21 152
Total Defense -1.9 234

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 119 -0.3 115
Shot Type Accuracy +2.7 88 -1.1 137
Possession Length 15.9 46 16.5 55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 177 0.18 213
Improvement -0.2 #199 -3.9 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 11% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round12% 13% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 24 - 44 - 7
Quad 37 - 411 - 11
Quad 411 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 249 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 79% +5  53% 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -4 F B- F+ B +6 C B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  91% 2 - 0 A +21 A +11 A- F A+ B +5 B B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 37 @SMU L 91 - 102 11% -9  1% 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 A- A- C C -0 A- D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 266 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 87% +11  97% 3 - 1 B +11 A +12 A+ A+ F C- -2 B F B+
 Tue, Nov 18 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 91% +16  88% 4 - 1 B +10 A +13 C+ A+ A+ C- -2 B+ F B
 Sun, Nov 23 173 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 66% -3  17% 4 - 2 C- -4 B- +5 B B- A D- -9 C+ F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 88 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 41% -16  11% 4 - 3 D+ -7 F -16 F C D A- +10 B+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 25 84 George Washington W 96 - 95 38% +1  60% 5 - 3 B- +8 A+ +18 A- A+ A- F+ -10 C- B F
 Tue, Dec 2 292 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 90% +10  75% 6 - 3 A +21 B- +5 D+ A- D+ A+ +17 A- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 283 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 89% +13  98% 7 - 3 C+ +3 C +0 A F F B- +4 C A C
 Sat, Dec 13 72 Akron W 115 - 100 34% +9  90% 8 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +24 A+ A- D- C- -3 C- A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 177 Drake W 81 - 72 76% +5  74% 9 - 3 1 - 0 B- +5 B +6 D- A A+ C -1 B+ D- B
 Sun, Dec 21 155 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 52% -2  27% 10 - 3 2 - 0 B +9 A- +11 A+ F B C- -2 D C- C
 Mon, Dec 29 127 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 67% +7  90% 11 - 3 3 - 0 C+ +2 B +7 A+ F C D+ -5 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 137 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 46% -1  38% 12 - 3 4 - 0 B +8 B +6 F A+ B- B- +2 B D+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 120 Bradley W 86 - 66 64% +14  97% 13 - 3 5 - 0 A +20 A +12 A+ C B A- +8 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 273 @Evansville W 79 - 69 74% +4  72% 14 - 3 6 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 D+ C+ A B +5 D+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 155 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 73% +6  80% 15 - 3 7 - 0 B +10 A +11 A+ D- B C- -2 D- C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 80% +5  97% 16 - 3 8 - 0 C -1 B- +5 B- A- C D -7 B- F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 177 @Drake L 90 - 101 56% -5  9% 16 - 4 8 - 1 D -9 C +1 C D B- D- -9 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 100 @Northern Iowa L 76 - 81 32% -4  17% 16 - 5 8 - 2 C+ +3 A +14 C A+ A- F+ -11 F C+ D
 Wed, Jan 28 94 Illinois St. L 65 - 70 54% -3  17% 16 - 6 8 - 3 C- -3 D- -7 F B- A B +4 C+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 78 @Belmont L 86 - 103 25% -20  2% 16 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -7 A +12 D+ A+ C- F -19 C- F F
 Tue, Feb 3 137 Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 74 69% +8  96% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B- +5 C +1 C- A+ C- B- +4 B+ C D
 Fri, Feb 6 127 @Southern Illinois W 91 - 81 44% +6  66% 18 - 7 10 - 4 A- +15 A+ +18 A+ F D+ D+ -4 C+ B- F
 Mon, Feb 9 100 Northern Iowa L 60 - 89 55% -13  0% 18 - 8 10 - 5 F -27 D -5 C- C- A- F -24 F F F
 Thu, Feb 12 197 @Indiana St. W 86 - 83 61%
 Sun, Feb 15 78 Belmont L 87 - 88 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 94 @Illinois St. L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Evansville W 87 - 74 89%
 Sun, Mar 1 120 @Bradley L 82 - 84 41%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +3 B +5 B- B- B- C- -2 C+ D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B- B C+ B- 40% 17% 43% C+ B- C+ B B- B- B- B B C- B- C D+ C+ 46% 27% 27% C+ C+ D+ C- D+ C- C+ C- C+
1.16 61% 43% 35% +3 0 1.08 32% 1.1 .37 16% .33 76% .25 1.11 54% 38% 36% -1 0 0.99 33% 1.1 .34 16% .29 73% .24
Nov
3		 Nebraska Omaha D+ C F F F 35% 12% 53% C+ F C A- B- F+ A+ A+ A+ B B- C F C 50% 32% 18% C+ C D+ A+ B A- C C C
1.07 61% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.88 29% 1.2 .34 18% .51 91% .46 0.97 54% 39% 40% 0 -1 1.00 28% 0.8 .22 21% .29 72% .21
Nov
7		 Mississippi Valley A A+ F A- A- 36% 6% 58% B+ A- B F F A+ D F F+ B B- A B B 29% 43% 29% C+ B F A+ B- A+ F F F
1.39 83% 25% 41% +14 +2 1.33 41% 0.5 .20 6% .35 68% .23 0.77 50% 29% 29% -9 -4 0.78 36% 0.5 .17 30% .39 86% .33
Nov
11		 SMU B+ D A+ C B+ 39% 17% 44% B+ A- D A+ A- C A B+ A+ C A C F A- 40% 35% 25% B+ A- D- C+ D+ D+ F F F
1.12 52% 78% 33% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.6 .39 18% .36 75% .27 1.25 50% 43% 47% +3 -2 1.05 43% 1.0 .43 14% .43 83% .36
Nov
15		 Nicholls St. A C B A+ A+ 36% 16% 48% C A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ C- A C- B- A- 47% 14% 39% F+ B F F+ F B+ A- F C
1.31 63% 43% 57% +19 0 1.41 52% 1.3 .70 26% .54 83% .45 1.04 44% 38% 32% -8 +1 0.89 40% 1.2 .47 20% .21 85% .18
Nov
18		 Arkansas Little Rock A F A+ A+ C+ 38% 13% 50% C C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ C- B+ B+ C A- 48% 40% 13% C B+ F D F B F+ F F
1.34 44% 83% 46% +10 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30 1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23
Nov
23		 Middle Tennessee B- A C C B+ 36% 25% 38% D B D A+ B- A A+ F+ A- D- B D D+ B- 54% 27% 19% D C+ F F F D- C- A+ B-
1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30 1.19 53% 44% 36% 0 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15
Nov
24		 McNeese St. F F D+ F F 26% 19% 55% D F C C+ C D A F C- A- C- C- A+ B+ 42% 20% 38% C+ B+ A A+ A+ D- C+ A+ A
0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28 0.98 60% 42% 22% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15
Nov
25		 George Washington A+ C A+ B+ A 37% 27% 36% D A- A+ C+ A+ A- C+ B- B- F+ C+ C+ D- C 56% 10% 35% D+ C- A D B F F D- F
1.33 59% 63% 38% +9 -1 1.19 44% 1.1 .47 14% .30 74% .22 1.31 59% 40% 39% +3 +3 1.13 29% 1.2 .35 10% .50 79% .40
Dec
2		 Morehead St. B- C+ D- D- D- 46% 6% 48% B+ D+ A C+ A- D+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A- A 49% 30% 21% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36 0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09
Dec
6		 Bellarmine C A+ A A+ A 40% 13% 48% B+ A B- F F F F A+ D+ B- C F C B- 60% 4% 36% F C A+ B- A C C B- C+
1.24 79% 50% 43% +17 +1 1.38 38% 0.6 .23 20% .21 91% .19 1.04 61% 50% 35% +3 +4 1.15 7% 1.0 .07 17% .29 75% .22
Dec
13		 Akron A+ B A+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% C A+ A C A- D- A D- A- C- B F F D+ 51% 25% 25% C+ C- D+ A+ A+ F F C F
1.40 64% 60% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.0 .44 22% .39 68% .26 1.21 55% 56% 44% +6 0 1.15 36% 0.7 .26 10% .34 76% .26
Dec
18		 Drake B C F C- F 35% 15% 50% B D- C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- A+ B- 26% 45% 30% A+ B+ F C+ D- B F D+ F
1.21 59% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.92 32% 1.3 .41 7% .50 84% .42 1.08 75% 38% 21% -1 -4 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 16% .41 74% .30
Dec
21		 Valparaiso A- B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% C A+ C- F F B A+ A+ A+ C- B- F D+ D- 36% 40% 24% B D C+ D- C- C A+ B A+
1.19 64% 54% 43% +11 0 1.22 30% 0.4 .12 15% .46 82% .38 1.10 52% 48% 36% +3 -3 1.02 30% 1.2 .35 15% .25 67% .16
Dec
29		 Southern Illinois B A+ F A A+ 31% 21% 48% C- A+ D F F C B B+ A- D+ A- B+ C- A- 58% 31% 11% D- B+ F+ F F C+ B D C+
1.13 88% 27% 40% +11 -1 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 19% .35 76% .26 1.09 50% 35% 33% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 17% .28 71% .20
Jan
1		 Illinois-Chicago B F F D+ F 35% 29% 37% D- F B+ A+ A+ B- B+ A+ A+ B- B A F B- 42% 38% 21% A+ B F B D+ B F F F
1.10 44% 20% 32% -11 -1 0.77 43% 1.4 .62 19% .37 86% .32 1.05 50% 28% 40% -5 -2 0.88 44% 0.9 .41 20% .45 81% .36
Jan
4		 Bradley A A+ D A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B+ A+ C C C B F+ A+ C A- A+ A+ F A+ 41% 32% 27% B A+ C D C- F A F+ B+
1.25 80% 33% 43% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 17% .25 93% .23 0.96 33% 11% 44% -15 -1 0.69 27% 1.2 .31 6% .25 81% .20
Jan
7		 Evansville C+ C- A+ F D 40% 17% 42% B D+ D A+ C+ A A+ F+ A B F F A+ D+ 41% 35% 24% C+ D+ A A+ A+ B- D C- D
1.11 57% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 27% 1.3 .35 13% .43 67% .29 0.97 76% 50% 8% +3 -2 1.04 16% 0.4 .06 21% .34 74% .25
Jan
10		 Valparaiso A B B- A+ A+ 42% 15% 44% B A+ C+ F D- B B A A- C- C A F D 53% 24% 24% F D- C+ C+ C+ A D+ F F+
1.23 65% 38% 46% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.6 .19 15% .36 78% .28 1.06 56% 25% 50% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 21% .37 82% .31
Jan
17		 Indiana St. B- C F B- C 42% 7% 51% A B- B- A- A- C A+ D+ A D B- B D C+ 58% 22% 20% B B- F F F D+ C A B-
1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26 1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15
Jan
21		 Drake C A+ A+ F C 32% 20% 48% C+ C D- C- D B- A+ B- A+ D- F+ C- B D 28% 54% 18% A+ C+ D F F D- F F F
1.10 79% 50% 24% +2 0 1.05 24% 0.9 .22 13% .42 70% .30 1.23 69% 42% 30% +4 -5 1.00 30% 1.7 .51 11% .56 78% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Northern Iowa A B+ F D C+ 33% 25% 41% D C A A+ A+ A- A A+ A+ F+ F+ D- F F 55% 22% 22% C F C B- C+ D F A+ D-
1.15 65% 23% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .44 14% .35 85% .30 1.22 70% 45% 45% +12 +1 1.29 22% 1.0 .22 12% .36 57% .21
Jan
28		 Illinois St. D- C- F F F 46% 19% 35% A- F D- A+ B- A D+ A+ B- B A F F B- 50% 20% 30% F+ C+ A+ F D+ B- B+ A+ A
0.94 56% 20% 16% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.6 .29 12% .28 88% .25 1.02 48% 50% 40% 0 +1 1.04 19% 1.8 .34 17% .25 57% .14
Jan
31		 Belmont A A+ F F D+ 35% 20% 46% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C F F D+ 44% 24% 33% A C- F F F F F C F
1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38 1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
3		 Illinois-Chicago C F A+ D+ C- 35% 14% 51% B- C- D A+ A+ C- B+ C- B B- A A D+ B+ 38% 25% 36% B- B+ A+ F C D F A+ D
1.08 44% 57% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.7 .53 21% .37 73% .27 0.99 43% 29% 35% -8 -1 0.85 27% 1.4 .38 16% .46 59% .27
Feb
6		 Southern Illinois A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% A- A+ F+ F F D+ A+ A- A+ D+ F+ B B+ C 34% 34% 32% B+ C+ B- B- B- F D+ F F+
1.24 68% 80% 50% +20 +2 1.45 21% 0.6 .13 21% .45 77% .34 1.11 68% 37% 28% 0 -2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 10% .35 78% .27
Feb
9		 Northern Iowa D F A+ F D+ 41% 17% 43% B- C- D+ C C- A- F C- F+ F D- F F F 48% 22% 29% B- F F C- F F A+ F A+
0.92 45% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.87 22% 0.9 .19 14% .18 70% .12 1.36 68% 69% 41% +15 0 1.33 35% 1.1 .38 9% .03 100% .03



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.1 3.1 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 4.5 24.1 14.3 1.0 43.9 2nd
3rd 0.8 15.5 9.1 0.2 25.6 3rd
4th 0.0 4.1 8.8 0.5 13.5 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 1.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.7 1.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.3 11.8 30.1 34.1 18.7 4.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 75.6% 3.1    1.2 1.9
14-6 22.1% 4.1    0.3 2.7 1.1 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 1.4 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.1% 14.8% 14.8% 11.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.5
14-6 18.7% 16.6% 16.6% 12.0 0.3 2.5 0.3 15.6
13-7 34.1% 13.2% 13.2% 12.2 0.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 29.6
12-8 30.1% 8.8% 8.8% 12.4 0.0 1.7 0.9 0.1 27.5
11-9 11.8% 7.0% 7.0% 12.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 11.0
10-10 1.3% 7.1% 7.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 1.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 12.2 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.6 45.0 53.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 0.4%