UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#109
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#94
Pace61.9#353
Improvement+0.7#128

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#85
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#27
Layup/Dunks-0.9#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#233
Freethrows+1.7#95
Improvement+0.8#118

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+0.1#163
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#155
Layups/Dunks+4.6#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#305
Freethrows+3.5#19
Improvement-0.1#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 26.2% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.6% 91.9%
Conference Champion 36.3% 38.0% 28.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.1% 26.2% 20.1%
Second Round3.4% 3.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 417 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 122 @Kent St. L 77-86 43%     0 - 1 -3.0 +2.3 -5.0
  Sat, Nov 15 278 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 89%     1 - 1 +3.6 +7.0 -1.7
  Tue, Nov 18 245 East Carolina W 85-60 86%     2 - 1 +17.3 +13.9 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 21 290 @Radford W 81-73 78%     3 - 1 +4.0 +6.0 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 248 SE Louisiana W 70-57 86%     4 - 1 +5.2 +4.8 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 28 198 Navy W 87-57 82%     5 - 1 +24.6 +18.8 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 29 360 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 97%     6 - 1 +8.6 +8.1 +0.8
  Wed, Dec 3 170 Marshall W 70-69 78%     7 - 1 -3.0 +4.1 -7.0
  Sat, Dec 6 318 @Louisiana W 70-60 83%    
  Sat, Dec 13 214 @Valparaiso W 69-65 66%    
  Sat, Dec 20 315 Howard W 80-64 93%    
  Mon, Dec 29 323 @N.C. A&T W 76-66 83%    
  Wed, Dec 31 256 Drexel W 73-61 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 212 Hampton W 74-64 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 227 @Northeastern W 73-68 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 222 @Stony Brook W 71-66 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 224 Campbell W 78-67 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 118 @William & Mary L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 212 @Hampton W 71-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 129 @Towson L 66-67 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 118 William & Mary W 79-75 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 180 @College of Charleston W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 223 Elon W 82-71 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 136 Hofstra W 70-65 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 205 Monmouth W 75-65 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 224 @Campbell W 75-70 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 323 N.C. A&T W 79-63 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 180 College of Charleston W 75-66 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 223 @Elon W 79-74 66%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.9 10.8 8.1 4.1 1.0 36.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.3 8.2 6.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 6.0 4.0 0.9 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.7 10.5 14.1 16.2 14.8 13.4 8.5 4.1 1.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.8% 4.1    3.9 0.2
16-2 95.5% 8.1    7.1 1.0 0.0
15-3 80.5% 10.8    7.6 3.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 53.2% 7.9    4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 22.5% 3.7    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.3% 36.3 24.6 9.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 49.7% 49.0% 0.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.3%
17-1 4.1% 45.4% 45.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
16-2 8.5% 43.0% 43.0% 12.1 0.0 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.9
15-3 13.4% 37.4% 37.4% 12.4 0.2 2.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.4
14-4 14.8% 30.5% 30.5% 12.8 0.0 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 10.3
13-5 16.2% 25.6% 25.6% 13.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 12.1
12-6 14.1% 20.1% 20.1% 13.3 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 11.2
11-7 10.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 9.0
10-8 7.7% 8.9% 8.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.0
9-9 4.7% 7.3% 7.3% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.4
8-10 2.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
7-11 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 9.0 9.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 74.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.1 1.9 7.6 1.9 3.8 8.6 17.1 47.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%