IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+2.4	#125
Expected Predictive Rating	+5.0	#95

Pace	64.3	#301
Improvement	-1.9	#268

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#139	D	B-	B-	B	D+
Defense	#120	B-	B-	D-	A-	A-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#281	1.08	#273	-3.4	#296
2 Pt. Jumpers	23%	#117	0.67	#307	+0.1	#171
Three Pointers	41%	#172	0.97	#247	-0.7	#200
1st FG Attempt			0.94	#290	-4.0	#289
Freethrows	20.6	#46	70%	#246	14.4	#88
Second Chance	35.5%	#53	1.04	#183	0.37	#77
Turnovers					15.3%	#109
Total Offense					+0.8	#139

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	30%	#346	1.25	#284	+3.6	#69
2 Pt. Jumpers	24%	#73	0.80	#251	-1.9	#321
Three Pointers	46%	#53	0.89	#41	+0.6	#153
1st FG Attempt			0.97	#110	+2.3	#110
Freethrows	13.7	#23	75%	#310	10.2	#35
Second Chance	27.1%	#60	1.06	#205	0.29	#97
Turnovers					13.7%	#327
Total Defense					+1.5	#120

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-1.2%	#269	-2.1%	#34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-6.8%	#286	-2.4%	#142
Possession Length	18.9	#321	17.4	#202
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.12	#323	0.19	#235
Improvement	-3.6	#342	+1.7	#82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.2%	24.0%	19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.1	13.0	13.3

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	99.4%	99.9%	98.6%
Conference Champion	62.2%	71.0%	48.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	22.2%	24.0%	19.3%
Second Round	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

14 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	7 - 5	8 - 6
Quad 4	16 - 2	23 - 8

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 10	148 @Kent St.	L	77 - 86	44%	-8	0 - 1		-5	+1	F	A-	A+	-6	F	B+	F
Sat, Nov 15	303 South Carolina Upstate	W	73 - 60	89%	+8	1 - 1		+2	+7	D	A+	D	-3	B	D	C+
Tue, Nov 18	267 East Carolina	W	85 - 60	85%	+12	2 - 1		+16	+14	A+	C	C	+3	B	B+	F
Fri, Nov 21	253 @Radford	W	81 - 73	66%	+8	3 - 1		+6	+5	B	B	F	+1	D+	B+	A-
Wed, Nov 26	272 SE Louisiana	W	70 - 57	86%	-1	4 - 1		+4	+4	F	D+	A+	+1	B	B+	F
Fri, Nov 28	194 Navy	W	87 - 57	77%	+21	5 - 1		+25	+20	A+	A+	F	+7	A+	A+	D-
Sat, Nov 29	363 Gardner-Webb	W	88 - 62	98%	+12	6 - 1		+4	+5	B-	D-	A+	-1	D+	A+	C
Wed, Dec 3	163 Marshall	W	70 - 69	71%	+1	7 - 1		-2	+3	F	B-	A+	-5	A-	F	C-
Sat, Dec 6	312 @Louisiana	W	70 - 63	79%	+3	8 - 1		+1	+4	D-	C	C	-2	C-	D+	D-
Sat, Dec 13	167 @Valparaiso	W	73 - 70	51%	-2	9 - 1		+5	+11	D-	A+	A-	-5	A+	F	F
Sat, Dec 20	265 Howard	L	66 - 67	85%	-4	9 - 2		-10	-5	F	A+	C-	-5	C	D	B-
Mon, Dec 29	304 @N.C. A&T	W	87 - 78	76%	-1	10 - 2	1 - 0	+4	+5	C	D+	F	-1	C	A+	F
Wed, Dec 31	203 Drexel	W	65 - 53	78%	+8	11 - 2	2 - 0	+6	+2	F	B	A+	+6	A+	F	D+
Sat, Jan 3	230 Hampton	W	49 - 45	81%	+4	12 - 2	3 - 0	-3	-17	F	D	D	+15	A+	A+	F
Thu, Jan 8	259 @Northeastern	W	87 - 78	67%	+1	13 - 2	4 - 0	+7	+8	F	B	C	-1	C	B-	F
Sat, Jan 10	242 @Stony Brook	W	75 - 71	65%	-8	14 - 2	5 - 0	+3	+6	B-	A	C	-3	C+	F	D
Sat, Jan 17	190 Campbell	W	78 - 75	76%	-4	15 - 2	6 - 0	-2	+4	C	F	A+	-6	F	A+	B+
Thu, Jan 22	138 @William & Mary	L	70 - 77	42%	-11	15 - 3	6 - 1	-3	-2	F	C	C+	-0	B+	B	F
Sat, Jan 24	230 @Hampton	W	69 - 66	62%
Thu, Jan 29	157 @Towson	L	64 - 65	47%
Thu, Feb 5	138 William & Mary	W	78 - 74	64%
Mon, Feb 9	164 @College of Charleston	L	72 - 73	49%
Thu, Feb 12	184 Elon	W	78 - 71	74%
Sat, Feb 14	126 Hofstra	W	71 - 68	62%
Thu, Feb 19	202 Monmouth	W	72 - 64	77%
Sat, Feb 21	190 @Campbell	W	76 - 75	54%
Thu, Feb 26	304 N.C. A&T	W	80 - 66	89%
Sat, Feb 28	164 College of Charleston	W	75 - 69	70%
Tue, Mar 3	184 @Elon	W	75 - 74	53%
Totals						22 - 7	13 - 5	+2	+1	D	B-	B-	+2	B-	B-	D-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.4	5.7	16.0	19.8	13.1	6.0	1.3		62.2	1st
2nd											0.1	2.6	8.8	5.2	0.7					17.3	2nd
3rd											0.5	5.0	3.2	0.3	0.0					8.9	3rd
4th										0.0	1.8	3.0	0.3	0.0						5.1	4th
5th										0.2	2.1	0.5								2.8	5th
6th									0.0	0.6	1.0	0.1								1.7	6th
7th									0.1	0.8	0.2									1.0	7th
8th								0.0	0.2	0.3										0.5	8th
9th								0.0	0.2	0.1										0.3	9th
10th								0.0	0.1											0.1	10th
11th								0.0	0.0											0.0	11th
12th																					12th
13th																					13th

Total								0.1	0.5	2.0	5.6	11.5	17.9	21.4	20.5	13.1	6.0	1.3			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	1.3	1.3
16-2	100.0%	6.0	6.0
15-3	100.0%	13.1	12.8	0.3
14-4	96.6%	19.8	16.3	3.4	0.1
13-5	74.7%	16.0	8.0	6.4	1.5	0.1
12-6	31.6%	5.7	0.8	2.1	2.0	0.7	0.1	0.0
11-7	3.2%	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	62.2%	62.2	45.2	12.3	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	1.3%	39.1%	39.1%		11.7											0.2	0.3	0.0	0.0			0.8
16-2	6.0%	35.4%	35.4%		12.4											0.1	1.2	0.8	0.1			3.9
15-3	13.1%	29.7%	29.7%		12.8											0.0	1.2	2.4	0.4	0.0		9.2
14-4	20.5%	26.7%	26.7%		13.0												1.0	3.2	1.2	0.0		15.0
13-5	21.4%	22.6%	22.6%		13.3												0.5	2.7	1.6	0.1		16.6
12-6	17.9%	18.4%	18.4%		13.5												0.2	1.4	1.5	0.2		14.6
11-7	11.5%	13.4%	13.4%		13.7												0.0	0.6	0.7	0.2		10.0
10-8	5.6%	8.3%	8.3%		14.0													0.1	0.3	0.1		5.2
9-9	2.0%	3.0%	3.0%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.0		2.0
8-10	0.5%	1.8%	1.8%		15.0															0.0		0.5
7-11	0.1%																		0.0			0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	13.1																	77.8	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	11	12	13	14
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	11.7	35.6	57.7	5.8	1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%