College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #164
Expected Predictive Rating +1.1 #147
Pace 70.4 #139
Improvement +1.5 #109

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #152 C C C+ A C-
Defense #194 C C F A- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #258 1.28 #60 +0.7 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.72 #228 +0.2 #163
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.91 #309 -1.8 #246
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #209 -0.8 #209
Freethrows 21.0 #29 76% #74 15.9 #20
Second Chance 29.4% #222 1.07 #142 0.32 #183
Turnovers 15.9% #146
Total Offense +0.4 #152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.21 #253 +3.6 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #81 0.75 #159 -1.1 #271
Three Pointers 45% #63 0.98 #133 -1.4 #246
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #147 +1.0 #147
Freethrows 14.6 #38 69% #51 10.1 #30
Second Chance 30.5% #179 1.02 #152 0.31 #160
Turnovers 13.0% #345
Total Defense -0.7 #194

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #242 -1.9% #48
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #196 -0.1% #183
Possession Length 17.3 #163 17.3 #172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.18 #212
Improvement -0.1 #182 +1.6 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 11.0% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.0
.500 or above 86.7% 92.3% 75.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 95.9% 83.7%
Conference Champion 18.7% 23.6% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.7% 11.0% 7.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 5
Quad 37 - 67 - 11
Quad 411 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 94 @Liberty L 75 - 90 20% -8  0 - 1 -6 +13 B A+ D+ -21 F F F
 Sat, Nov 8 95 Florida Atlantic L 77 - 94 29% -15  0 - 2 -11 +10 C D A+ -22 C F F
 Fri, Nov 14 359 South Carolina St. W 88 - 61 94% +14  1 - 2 +9 +11 C+ C A+ -1 C+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 158 Drake L 62 - 71 60% -5  1 - 3 -12 -11 F D- D+ -1 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 176 Massachusetts W 69 - 65 53% -1  2 - 3 +3 -1 F A+ A +4 C- C+ A-
 Sun, Nov 23 83 Yale L 63 - 74 24% -9  2 - 4 -4 -6 F F C+ +1 C- A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 271 Evansville W 78 - 59 71% +12  3 - 4 +13 +5 B- C C +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 82 Belmont L 73 - 96 33% -19  3 - 5 -19 +0 F B+ A+ -19 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 74 @South Florida L 75 - 81 15% -2  3 - 6 +5 +8 D B+ C+ -4 B- C D
 Sun, Dec 14 173 Charlotte W 74 - 67 64% +4  4 - 6 +3 -1 B- C+ D- +4 A- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 351 The Citadel W 82 - 78 92% -2  5 - 6 -12 -2 C F D- -10 F C+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 178 @Northern Kentucky W 85 - 74 42% +4  6 - 6 +13 +9 A C+ C +4 C A- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 203 Drexel W 72 - 63 70% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +7 A- A+ D -3 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 184 @Elon W 85 - 81 44% +7  8 - 6 2 - 0 +5 +5 F B+ D +0 A B F
 Mon, Jan 5 138 William & Mary W 88 - 79 55% +6  9 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +2 A- F D- +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 230 Hampton W 74 - 70 74% +5  10 - 6 4 - 0 -3 +8 C+ B- A -10 B F F
 Thu, Jan 15 157 @Towson L 52 - 61 37% -9  10 - 7 4 - 1 -6 -15 F D+ F +9 A+ D C
 Sat, Jan 17 242 @Stony Brook L 106 - 112 2OT 54% -3  10 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +12 C- A+ A -18 F C F
 Thu, Jan 22 190 Campbell W 87 - 83 67% +3  11 - 8 5 - 2 -1 +7 A C F -8 D F C
 Sat, Jan 24 184 Elon W 81 - 77 66%
 Thu, Jan 29 126 @Hofstra L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 259 @Northeastern W 81 - 79 57%
 Thu, Feb 5 304 N.C. A&T W 83 - 72 84%
 Mon, Feb 9 125 UNC Wilmington W 73 - 72 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 126 Hofstra W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 @Campbell L 79 - 80 44%
 Thu, Feb 19 304 @N.C. A&T W 80 - 75 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 202 Monmouth W 74 - 69 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 230 @Hampton W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 75 30%
Totals 17 - 13 11 - 7 +0 +0 C C C+ -1 C C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.4 7.2 5.6 1.9 0.3 18.7 1st
2nd 0.2 4.1 10.2 5.1 0.6 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 9.4 4.8 0.4 16.6 3rd
4th 0.3 6.1 6.0 0.5 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 7.1 1.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.3 4.7 2.7 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.0 0.3 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 1.1 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.9 5.9 12.3 18.3 21.1 18.9 12.7 6.2 1.9 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-3 98.5% 1.9    1.8 0.1
14-4 90.3% 5.6    4.0 1.5 0.1
13-5 57.0% 7.2    2.8 3.4 0.9 0.0
12-6 18.1% 3.4    0.4 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 9.3 6.2 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 21.4% 21.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.9% 24.0% 24.0% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-4 6.2% 18.4% 18.4% 13.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.1
13-5 12.7% 15.8% 15.8% 13.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 10.7
12-6 18.9% 12.8% 12.8% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.5
11-7 21.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.1 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 18.9
10-8 18.3% 5.0% 5.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 17.4
9-9 12.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.9
8-10 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 13.8 90.3 0.0%