Preseason Rankings
McNeese St.
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#284
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 54.5% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.4 11.9 12.7
.500 or above 95.2% 98.5% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 99.0% 96.8%
Conference Champion 62.2% 71.1% 55.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round47.1% 54.4% 41.8%
Second Round8.3% 10.9% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 415 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 105   @ Santa Clara L 69-71 41%    
  Nov 14, 2025 234   Louisiana W 73-61 87%    
  Nov 23, 2025 85   George Washington L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 24, 2025 127   Murray St. W 67-64 61%    
  Nov 25, 2025 147   Middle Tennessee W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 01, 2025 209   @ Incarnate Word W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 05, 2025 255   Northwestern St. W 70-57 88%    
  Dec 09, 2025 146   @ Rhode Island W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 12, 2025 333   East Texas A&M W 76-57 95%    
  Dec 15, 2025 289   @ Houston Christian W 69-60 79%    
  Dec 29, 2025 6   @ Michigan L 62-79 7%    
  Jan 03, 2026 218   Lamar W 70-58 84%    
  Jan 05, 2026 212   Stephen F. Austin W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 10, 2026 243   SE Louisiana W 74-61 86%    
  Jan 12, 2026 233   Nicholls St. W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 17, 2026 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 19, 2026 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 24, 2026 312   New Orleans W 80-63 92%    
  Jan 26, 2026 243   @ SE Louisiana W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 31, 2026 218   @ Lamar W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 02, 2026 212   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 07, 2026 209   Incarnate Word W 72-61 82%    
  Feb 09, 2026 289   Houston Christian W 72-57 89%    
  Feb 14, 2026 333   @ East Texas A&M W 73-60 85%    
  Feb 16, 2026 255   @ Northwestern St. W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 21, 2026 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-61 83%    
  Feb 23, 2026 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 78-64 88%    
  Feb 28, 2026 312   @ New Orleans W 77-66 81%    
  Mar 02, 2026 233   @ Nicholls St. W 71-65 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 18 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.0 9.9 13.6 13.3 10.8 5.5 62.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.7 4.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 13.1 14.8 13.4 10.8 5.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 5.5    5.5
21-1 100.0% 10.8    10.7 0.1
20-2 98.8% 13.3    12.5 0.7
19-3 91.9% 13.6    11.9 1.7 0.0
18-4 75.2% 9.9    7.4 2.4 0.2
17-5 53.9% 6.0    3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0
16-6 26.4% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-7 9.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 62.2% 62.2 52.5 8.3 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 5.5% 80.8% 79.4% 1.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 6.8%
21-1 10.8% 71.1% 70.7% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.1 3.1 1.3%
20-2 13.4% 65.0% 65.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 4.6 1.7 0.3 4.7 0.1%
19-3 14.8% 56.2% 56.1% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.5 0.1%
18-4 13.1% 50.4% 50.4% 12.8 0.2 2.3 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
17-5 11.1% 42.0% 42.0% 13.3 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.4
16-6 9.1% 34.0% 34.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 6.0
15-7 7.0% 24.8% 24.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 5.3
14-8 5.4% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.3
13-9 3.5% 10.3% 10.3% 16.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2
12-10 2.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-11 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 20.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
10-12 1.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-13 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-14 0.3% 0.3
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 47.0% 46.9% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 8.7 15.9 11.3 6.4 2.2 0.5 53.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.2 3.8 5.7 5.6 17.1 33.7 15.1 7.6 3.8 3.7 1.9 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 67.2% 9.5 33.6 33.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 33.3% 7.0 33.3