Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +4.7 100
Results Rating +7.8 76
Consistency 0.12 41
Pace 65.5 260
Improvement -1.1 222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense C+ 117 C- C+ A- F D
Defense B- 94 B- C C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 D 53% 300 -4.8 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 118 C 39% 158 +2.5 55
Three Pointers 40% 202 B- 36% 97 +0.9 153
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 322 C -0.3 175
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 221
Second Chance B- 32.6% 103 C 1.02 196 C+ 0.33 125
Opponents' Steals A 6.6% 7
Other Turnovers B- 6.3% 68
Turnovers A- 12.9% 13
Freethrows F 0.23 358 D- 67% 330 F 0.16 362
Total Offense C+ +1.9 117

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 29% 358 D- 14.3% 337
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 174 C- 5.7% 239
Three Pointers C 83% 213 B- 0.5% 83
Total D- 47% 331 D+ 6.5% 280


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 B- 55% 100 +0.6 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 D- 44% 343 +1.3 293
Three Pointers 38% 278 B+ 30% 33 -3.9 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 209 B- -2.2 91
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 117
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 117 D+ 1.09 278 C 0.32 206
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 132
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 286
Turnovers C 16.6% 184
Freethrows B- 0.28 113 C- 74% 262 C+ 0.21 130
Total Defense B- +2.8 94

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 205 C 11.2% 159
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 203 D+ 3.2% 277
Three Pointers B 79% 49 B 1.6% 58
Total B- 52% 114 C+ 5.9% 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 229 17.8 262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 356 0.15 94
Consistency 0.13 216 0.13 244
Improvement +0.2 170 -1.3 259

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 110 103 96
Results Rating Rank 88 82 69
Conference Record 20 - 2 20 - 2 20 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37% 48% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round37% 48% 0%
Second Round4% 5% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 28 - 4
Quad 418 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 146 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 74% +16  99% 1 - 0 A +23 B+ +8 C A+ F+ A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 222 @Rice W 81 - 69 70% +8  97% 2 - 0 B +11 B +7 B- C B- B+ +5 B+ A F
 Fri, Nov 14 235 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 87% +1  58% 3 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C- A+ C +0 B B F+
 Tue, Nov 18 129 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 49% +1  53% 3 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +9 C+ A+ C+ D -6 F D- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 270 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 77% -3  27% 4 - 1 C -0 F -11 F A- C+ A+ +12 B C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 180 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 62% +3  70% 4 - 2 C- -3 C- -1 D+ C C+ C- -3 D+ B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 74% +8  93% 5 - 2 1 - 0 B +11 C- -2 F+ C A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 354 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 A- D A D+ -5 A F F
 Wed, Dec 17 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 82% +1  45% 7 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 C C B+ B +5 B D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 307 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 84% +6  78% 8 - 2 3 - 0 A +21 B- +5 D C+ B+ A+ +19 B A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 278 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 78% +7  89% 9 - 2 4 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 C- F+ A- B +4 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 289 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 80% +8  91% 10 - 2 5 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 D- C+ B- B +4 B- F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 83 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 31% +2  75% 10 - 3 5 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 D+ B+ C B +4 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 290 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  98% 11 - 3 6 - 1 B- +8 A+ +15 C+ B A+ D -5 F C A
 Mon, Jan 12 265 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 89% +7  86% 12 - 3 7 - 1 C +1 F -23 F C+ C- A+ +25 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 65% +1  60% 13 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 A- F A+ D+ -4 F+ F+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 249 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 74% +16  97% 14 - 3 9 - 1 A- +15 B+ +8 A F C+ A- +8 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 246 @Lamar W 88 - 81 73% +4  89% 15 - 3 10 - 1 B- +5 A+ +18 A+ D- A+ F -12 D- F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 278 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 90% +8  98% 16 - 3 11 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 F C- B+ B +4 A D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 289 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 91% +21  98% 17 - 3 12 - 1 A- +17 A+ +21 A+ A+ A C+ +0 C+ F A-
 Mon, Feb 2 83 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 53% +6  92% 18 - 3 13 - 1 B +11 D -6 D+ D+ A+ A+ +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 246 Lamar W 84 - 74 87% +10  89% 19 - 3 14 - 1 C+ +2 B+ +9 A D- A+ D- -7 F+ C+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 307 East Texas A&M W 74 - 70 93% +2  54% 20 - 3 15 - 1 D+ -8 C- -2 D D B D -6 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 66 - 57 53% +5  96% 21 - 3 16 - 1 B+ +13 C +1 D- C- A- A+ +13 A B A-
 Mon, Feb 16 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78 - 68 64% +13  99% 22 - 3 17 - 1 B +11 B+ +9 B- F+ A+ B- +2 B- C D+
 Sat, Feb 21 249 Nicholls St. W 81 - 78 88% +4  83% 23 - 3 18 - 1 D+ -5 B +6 F+ A+ A+ F -11 F B B+
 Mon, Feb 23 197 New Orleans L 73 - 77 82% -7  2% 23 - 4 18 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 F B+ A+ D -5 F+ C B+
 Sat, Feb 28 290 @Houston Christian W 77 - 56 80% +18  98% 24 - 4 19 - 2 A- +17 B+ +9 D A A- A +10 A+ F D+
 Mon, Mar 2 265 @Incarnate Word W 76 - 68 77% +2  66% 25 - 4 20 - 2 B- +5 B+ +9 B- C+ B C- -3 C F F
Totals 25 - 4 20 - 2 +5 C+ +2 A+ C D B- +3 B- D- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D C B- C 33% 43% 40% D C- B- C C+ A- F D- F B- B- D- B+ B- 42% 21% 38% C- B- C+ D+ C C B- C- C+
1.11 53% 39% 36% 0 -1 0.99 33% 1.0 .33 13% .23 67% .16 1.05 55% 44% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 17% .28 74% .17
Nov
7
Arkansas St. B+ F A+ D- B- 27% 29% 44% F+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% D+ A+ A+ D+ A C- F D- F
1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17 0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43
Nov
11
Rice B B C+ A+ B+ 24% 33% 43% D B- F A+ C B- A- C B+ B+ A+ B+ F B 28% 43% 28% A B+ C+ A+ A F F B- F
1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30 1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39
Nov
14
Abilene Christian C+ F A+ A+ D+ 43% 17% 40% C D+ F A+ C- A+ C F F C C+ B- A+ B 47% 35% 18% B+ B C+ B+ B F+ C F D-
1.13 35% 50% 53% +3 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25 0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28
Nov
18
Fresno St. B+ B- F+ D+ C+ 41% 23% 36% C C+ A+ C+ A+ C+ F F F D F+ F F F 55% 21% 23% D- F D+ F+ D- B- D- A+ B-
1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05 1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20
Nov
21
Pepperdine F C- A+ F F 33% 11% 56% C- F C- A+ A- C+ F A+ F A+ A+ C D+ B+ 38% 24% 38% C+ B A F C+ A- B- F D
0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02 0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25
Nov
29
Texas Arlington C- F B F+ D+ 41% 37% 22% D D+ B+ F C C+ F B F C- A+ F F C- 59% 15% 26% F D+ F+ A B- C+ F F F
0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12 1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41
Dec
3
UT Rio Grande Valley C- F+ D- C+ D 26% 36% 38% F F+ D A- C A+ B C B A+ A A- A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% D+ A+ B A+ A+ F D C D+
1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28 0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
7
Louisiana Monroe B A+ F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- A- D+ D+ D A D- F F+ D+ B- B+ A+ A+ 46% 18% 37% D- A F+ F F F D- F+ F
1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12 1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30
Dec
17
TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F A+ C+ 45% 29% 26% D C C- B- C B+ A+ F A+ B B+ A- A- A- 50% 17% 33% D- B F C+ D- C+ F A+ D-
1.08 59% 18% 50% +1 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 17% .72 55% .40 0.94 48% 29% 29% -10 +1 0.86 38% 0.9 .35 19% .48 56% .27
Dec
29
East Texas A&M B- F A+ B- C- 25% 27% 47% F D B+ D- C+ B+ C- C- C- A+ A+ B- F+ B- 30% 26% 45% A B B+ A+ A+ A- D A+ A+
1.16 38% 50% 38% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 14% .30 71% .21 0.74 36% 33% 38% -5 -1 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 22% .28 29% .08
Dec
31
Northwestern St. C+ B B F D+ 46% 18% 36% C+ C- C+ F F+ A- B- D+ C+ B B- C- A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% F B- A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25 0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27
Jan
3
SE Louisiana C+ F B C D 28% 32% 40% F D- A F C+ B- D+ B C B D+ B+ B+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A B- B+ F F+ C A+ F B
1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27 0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18
Jan
5
McNeese St. B- F A+ D D+ 35% 17% 48% C D+ B- B+ B+ C F F F B D+ F B+ D+ 33% 16% 51% C+ D+ F+ A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09 1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15
Jan
10
Houston Christian A+ B A+ C- C 40% 8% 52% B C+ A+ F B A+ F+ A+ D D F D- B- F 45% 17% 38% D- F C- C+ C A F F F
1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18 1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29
Jan
12
Incarnate Word F F F F F 39% 27% 33% F+ F B- C- C+ C- B- F F+ A+ B B A+ A+ 53% 24% 22% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B C B C+
0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22 0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18
Jan
17
New Orleans A- C+ A A+ A 38% 28% 34% D- A- B F F A+ A+ D+ A D+ C F C F 30% 37% 33% A+ F+ C F F+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33 1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11
Jan
19
Nicholls St. B+ A+ B A+ A 35% 20% 46% D A A F F C+ B C+ B A- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% B A+ F B+ D- C- D+ F F+
1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30 0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
24
Lamar A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 36% 47% F A+ F B+ D- A+ D C+ D+ F F D+ B D- 29% 27% 44% D D- D+ F F C- D F F
1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -3 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25 1.21 67% 43% 30% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23
Jan
27
Northwestern St. F F+ F+ C- F 30% 36% 34% F F F A+ C- B+ D F F+ B A+ B C A+ 43% 31% 26% C- A C- F D- D- A+ B+ A+
0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18 0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15
Jan
31
SE Louisiana A+ A F A+ A+ 24% 22% 53% D A+ B+ A+ A+ A F F F C+ A B+ D C 33% 33% 35% B+ C+ D+ F F A- D F F+
1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14 0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2
McNeese St. D F A+ C+ C- 33% 24% 43% D D+ C+ F+ D+ A+ D A- C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ D+ F F A+ C C C
0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28 0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22
Feb
7
Lamar B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A F A- D- A+ C- A+ B D- A+ F D+ F 28% 46% 26% A F+ B+ D+ C+ D C+ F C-
1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30 1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17
Feb
9
East Texas A&M C- C F B- D 47% 22% 31% D+ D B- F D B B F+ C D F D- D F 32% 15% 53% C F A+ D A+ B+ C D C-
1.11 58% 18% 38% -3 0 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 15% .35 65% .23 1.05 87% 43% 36% +11 0 1.26 8% 1.0 .08 21% .25 69% .17
Feb
14
UT Rio Grande Valley C D+ A- F F+ 38% 23% 38% C- D- A+ F C- A- A D- B A+ B F A+ A 33% 20% 48% B- A C- A+ B A- C B- C+
1.05 56% 45% 22% -6 0 0.89 43% 0.6 .25 13% .42 65% .27 0.91 53% 56% 23% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.8 .23 21% .22 73% .16
Feb
16
TX A&M Corpus Christi B+ D B- A+ B- 48% 20% 32% C+ B- C- F F+ A+ C+ D+ C B- B F A+ B 44% 16% 40% D+ B- C C+ C D+ A+ F A-
1.16 54% 40% 44% +3 +1 1.10 27% 0.7 .19 9% .43 69% .29 1.01 50% 56% 23% -7 +1 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
21
Nicholls St. B C- F C- F+ 31% 8% 61% C+ F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F D- A+ F F 41% 10% 49% D- F A+ F B B+ A- F C+
1.22 60% 0% 33% -3 +1 0.98 36% 1.8 .64 15% .32 67% .21 1.17 65% 20% 50% +13 +2 1.31 12% 1.7 .20 20% .21 82% .17
Feb
23
New Orleans D+ F F F F 55% 26% 19% C F A- C+ B+ A+ B- A+ A- D D+ F A+ D- 52% 20% 27% F F+ F A C B+ F F F
1.08 45% 29% 20% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.1 .44 7% .38 83% .32 1.13 61% 67% 25% +4 +1 1.11 43% 0.8 .36 22% .45 88% .40
Feb
28
Houston Christian B+ C+ D C D+ 33% 19% 48% D D B A A A- D+ B+ C A C F A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% C- A+ C+ F F D+ C+ B+ B-
1.23 63% 33% 35% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.3 .50 14% .26 79% .21 0.89 57% 45% 0% -16 0 0.71 27% 1.5 .41 16% .27 64% .17
Mar
2
Incarnate Word B+ C B- A+ A 21% 34% 45% F B- C+ C C+ B F F+ F C- F F A+ B- 44% 15% 41% F C A+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.26 60% 44% 48% +11 -3 1.19 34% 1.1 .38 13% .29 67% .19 1.13 67% 50% 18% -4 +1 0.96 20% 2.1 .43 7% .16 33% .05




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 37.2% 37.2% 12.4 1.3 21.6 13.5 0.8 62.8
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 37.2% 37.2% 0.0% 12.4 62.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 37.2% 100.0% 12.4 3.5 58.2 36.2 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 40.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.1%