Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#144
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#145
Pace67.1#252
Improvement-2.6#331

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#193
First Shot-4.9#306
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#21
Layup/Dunks-4.6#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#110
Freethrows-5.9#363
Improvement-2.8#359

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#108
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#47
Layups/Dunks+0.4#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#19
Freethrows-3.6#341
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 15.3% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 95.1% 95.5% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 91.6% 84.7%
Conference Champion 19.8% 20.2% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.1% 15.3% 9.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 155 Arkansas St. W 90-65 66%     1 - 0 +22.0 +11.2 +9.4
  Tue, Nov 11 217 @Rice W 81-69 56%     2 - 0 +11.6 +10.9 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 14 234 Abilene Christian W 76-66 79%     3 - 0 +2.6 +5.9 -2.9
  Tue, Nov 18 179 @Fresno St. L 78-80 48%     3 - 1 -0.4 +9.3 -9.8
  Fri, Nov 21 298 @Pepperdine W 63-60 71%     4 - 1 -1.7 -8.3 +6.8
  Sat, Nov 29 190 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 51%     4 - 2 -4.1 -1.5 -3.2
  Wed, Dec 3 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 76%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +6.8 -1.6 +8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 357 Louisiana Monroe W 81-63 96%    
  Wed, Dec 17 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-64 79%    
  Mon, Dec 29 300 @East Texas A&M W 71-65 72%    
  Wed, Dec 31 302 @Northwestern St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 248 @SE Louisiana W 68-65 61%    
  Mon, Jan 5 78 @McNeese St. L 63-72 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 282 Houston Christian W 74-63 83%    
  Mon, Jan 12 171 Incarnate Word W 72-67 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 216 @New Orleans W 73-72 56%    
  Mon, Jan 19 265 @Nicholls St. W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 195 @Lamar W 66-65 52%    
  Mon, Jan 26 302 Northwestern St. W 75-63 85%    
  Sat, Jan 31 248 SE Louisiana W 71-62 79%    
  Mon, Feb 2 78 McNeese St. L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 195 Lamar W 68-62 71%    
  Mon, Feb 9 300 East Texas A&M W 74-62 85%    
  Sat, Feb 14 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-73 54%    
  Mon, Feb 16 237 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70-67 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 265 Nicholls St. W 75-65 81%    
  Mon, Feb 23 216 New Orleans W 76-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 282 @Houston Christian W 71-66 66%    
  Mon, Mar 2 171 @Incarnate Word L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 5.2 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 19.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.7 7.9 6.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.7 5.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.6 3.4 1.3 0.2 12.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.6 8.3 10.5 12.3 13.0 12.9 11.1 8.3 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
20-2 96.9% 2.6    2.4 0.2
19-3 86.1% 4.7    3.6 1.0 0.0
18-4 62.0% 5.2    3.4 1.7 0.1
17-5 33.6% 3.7    1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0
16-6 13.8% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
15-7 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 13.0 5.6 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 61.5% 57.7% 3.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.1%
21-1 1.0% 40.7% 40.7% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
20-2 2.7% 37.5% 37.5% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.7
19-3 5.4% 33.3% 33.3% 12.8 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.6
18-4 8.3% 30.9% 30.9% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 5.7
17-5 11.1% 25.5% 25.5% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 8.3
16-6 12.9% 19.0% 19.0% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 10.5
15-7 13.0% 13.1% 13.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.3
14-8 12.3% 10.1% 10.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.0
13-9 10.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.9
12-10 8.3% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.1
11-11 5.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
10-12 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
9-13 2.5% 2.5
8-14 1.3% 1.3
7-15 0.6% 0.6
6-16 0.3% 0.3
5-17 0.1% 0.1
4-18 0.0% 0.0
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.3 5.3 2.0 0.2 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 6.7 13.3 60.0 20.0