Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#132
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#114
Pace67.6#233
Improvement-1.7#288

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#172
First Shot-4.0#294
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#20
Layup/Dunks-1.8#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows-5.1#364
Improvement-1.1#257

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#105
First Shot+0.8#140
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#87
Layups/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#10
Freethrows-2.8#335
Improvement-0.6#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.9% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 97.9% 98.9% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 97.2% 89.2%
Conference Champion 22.3% 26.3% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.2% 18.9% 12.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 136 Arkansas St. W 90-65 62%     1 - 0 +23.7 +10.5 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 11 231 @Rice W 81-69 62%     2 - 0 +10.6 +10.4 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 14 204 Abilene Christian W 76-66 77%     3 - 0 +4.2 +5.8 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 18 184 @Fresno St. L 78-80 52%     3 - 1 -0.7 +8.5 -9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 262 @Pepperdine W 63-60 67%     4 - 1 +0.4 -6.3 +6.8
  Sat, Nov 29 167 @Texas Arlington L 61-66 47%     4 - 2 -2.6 +0.7 -4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-60 74%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +8.0 +0.4 +7.9
  Sun, Dec 7 359 Louisiana Monroe W 96-76 96%     6 - 2 +2.1 +10.2 -8.9
  Wed, Dec 17 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-60 79%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +2.4 +2.6 +0.7
  Mon, Dec 29 302 @East Texas A&M W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Dec 31 273 @Northwestern St. W 73-68 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 266 @SE Louisiana W 70-66 66%    
  Mon, Jan 5 70 @McNeese St. L 65-74 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 279 Houston Christian W 75-64 85%    
  Mon, Jan 12 162 Incarnate Word W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 @New Orleans W 76-73 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 234 @Nicholls St. W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 253 @Lamar W 69-65 64%    
  Mon, Jan 26 273 Northwestern St. W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 266 SE Louisiana W 73-63 84%    
  Mon, Feb 2 70 McNeese St. L 68-71 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 253 Lamar W 72-62 81%    
  Mon, Feb 9 302 East Texas A&M W 79-66 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 53%    
  Mon, Feb 16 218 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-67 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 234 Nicholls St. W 76-67 80%    
  Mon, Feb 23 241 New Orleans W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 279 @Houston Christian W 72-67 68%    
  Mon, Mar 2 162 @Incarnate Word L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 15 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 5.6 5.7 3.4 1.1 0.2 22.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 7.6 10.5 8.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 36.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.8 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.1 6.8 9.4 11.9 13.6 14.5 13.1 10.1 6.9 3.5 1.1 0.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
21-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
20-2 97.8% 3.4    3.0 0.4
19-3 82.7% 5.7    4.3 1.3 0.0
18-4 55.7% 5.6    3.3 2.3 0.1
17-5 31.0% 4.1    1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0
16-6 11.9% 1.7    0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
15-7 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 14.4 7.0 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.2% 66.7% 66.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
21-1 1.1% 42.5% 42.5% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.7
20-2 3.5% 38.1% 38.1% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.1
19-3 6.9% 34.8% 34.8% 12.7 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.5
18-4 10.1% 28.7% 28.7% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 7.2
17-5 13.1% 25.1% 25.1% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.2 0.1 9.8
16-6 14.5% 18.2% 18.2% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 11.8
15-7 13.6% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.7
14-8 11.9% 9.5% 9.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 10.8
13-9 9.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.9
12-10 6.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-11 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-12 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-14 0.6% 0.6
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18
3-19 0.0% 0.0
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.1 5.3 1.3 0.1 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 14.3 4.8 50.0 31.0