Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 105
Expected Predictive Rating +7.9 72
Pace 66.5 241
Improvement -0.3 194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #134 C C A- F D-
Defense B- #84 B- C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 54% 279 -4.6 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 59 40% 107 +3.1 44
Three Pointers 40% 210 36% 70 +0.9 148
1st FG Attempt 1.01 191 -0.6 192
Second Chance 32.3% 130 1.01 204 0.32 142
Turnovers 13.3% 17
Freethrows 0.23 361 67% 343 0.15 363
Total Offense +1.1 134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 53% 61 +0.3 165
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 121 42% 298 -1.3 291
Three Pointers 36% 307 31% 60 +3.9 38
1st FG Attempt 0.96 87 +2.8 88
Second Chance 29.1% 117 1.06 249 0.31 182
Turnovers 16.7% 196
Freethrows 0.29 156 73% 222 0.21 158
Total Defense +3.3 84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 324 +0.0 172
Shot Type Accuracy +0.7 147 -2.8 69
Possession Length 17.8 230 17.6 238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 361 0.14 78
Improvement -0.5 #220 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38% 40% 35%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 93% 98% 88%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round38% 40% 35%
Second Round3% 4% 3%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 36 - 27 - 4
Quad 418 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 141 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 72% +16  99% 1 - 0 A+ +23 B+ +9 C A+ F+ A+ +13 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 220 @Rice W 81 - 69 67% +8  97% 2 - 0 B+ +12 B +7 B C B- B +6 B+ A F
 Fri, Nov 14 260 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 88% +1  58% 3 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 C- D A+ C -0 B B- F+
 Tue, Nov 18 140 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 51% +1  53% 3 - 1 C+ +2 A- +10 C+ A+ B- D- -7 F D- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 291 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 80% -3  27% 4 - 1 C -2 F -10 F A- B- A- +9 B- C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 169 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 58% +3  70% 4 - 2 C- -3 D+ -3 D+ C C+ C -1 C- B- C+
 Wed, Dec 3 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 74% +8  93% 5 - 2 1 - 0 B +11 C- -1 D- C A+ A +12 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 356 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  99% 6 - 2 C+ +2 B+ +8 A- D A D -6 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 17 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 82% +1  45% 7 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 C+ C B+ B- +4 B- D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 300 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 81% +6  78% 8 - 2 3 - 0 A +22 B +6 D+ B- A- A+ +18 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 280 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 78% +7  89% 9 - 2 4 - 0 B- +6 C+ +2 D+ F+ A- B +5 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 270 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 76% +8  91% 10 - 2 5 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 D C+ B- B- +4 B- F+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 88 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 33% +2  75% 10 - 3 5 - 1 B- +7 C+ +3 D+ B C B- +4 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 298 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  98% 11 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 A +13 C- B+ A+ D+ -4 F+ C- A
 Mon, Jan 12 255 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 88% +7  86% 12 - 3 7 - 1 C +2 F -23 F C C A+ +25 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 225 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 68% +1  60% 13 - 3 8 - 1 C+ +5 B+ +8 B+ F A+ D+ -4 D- D- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 266 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 76% +16  97% 14 - 3 9 - 1 B+ +14 B +7 A- F B A- +8 A+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 24 196 @Lamar W 88 - 81 64% +4  89% 15 - 3 10 - 1 B- +8 A+ +17 A+ D- A+ F+ -10 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 280 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 90% +8  98% 16 - 3 11 - 1 D+ -8 F -12 F D+ B+ B +4 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 270 SE Louisiana W 85 - 58 89% +21  98% 17 - 3 12 - 1 A +18 A+ +22 A+ A+ A C +0 C+ F B+
 Mon, Feb 2 88 McNeese St. W 67 - 60 56% +6  92% 18 - 3 13 - 1 B +10 D- -7 D+ D A+ A+ +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 196 Lamar W 84 - 74 82% +10  89% 19 - 3 14 - 1 C+ +5 B+ +9 A D- A+ D+ -4 D- B D+
 Mon, Feb 9 300 East Texas A&M W 74 - 70 92% +2  54% 20 - 3 15 - 1 D+ -7 C -0 D D+ B+ D -7 F A B
 Sat, Feb 14 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 72 - 71 54%
 Mon, Feb 16 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 70 - 66 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 266 Nicholls St. W 79 - 66 89%
 Mon, Feb 23 225 New Orleans W 82 - 71 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 @Houston Christian W 74 - 65 81%
 Mon, Mar 2 255 @Incarnate Word W 75 - 68 74%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +4 C+ +1 C C A- B- +3 B- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ C+ B C+ 33% 27% 40% D- C C+ C- C A- F D- F B- B D B B- 41% 22% 36% C B- C+ C- C C C+ C- C+
1.10 54% 40% 36% +1 -1 1.01 32% 1.0 .32 13% .23 67% .15 1.04 53% 42% 31% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.1 .31 17% .29 73% .16
Nov
7		 Arkansas St. B+ F A+ D- C+ 27% 29% 44% F+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% D+ A+ A+ D A C- F D F
1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17 0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43
Nov
11		 Rice B B C+ A+ B+ 24% 33% 43% D B F A+ C B- A- C B+ B A+ B+ F B 28% 43% 28% A B+ B- A+ A F F C F
1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30 1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39
Nov
14		 Abilene Christian C+ F A+ A+ C- 43% 17% 40% C- C- F A+ D A+ C F F C C+ B- A+ B 47% 35% 18% B B B- B B- F+ C- F F+
1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25 0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28
Nov
18		 Fresno St. A- B- D- C- B- 41% 23% 36% C C+ A+ C+ A+ B- F F F D- F+ F F F 55% 21% 23% D+ F D+ F+ D- C+ D A+ B-
1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05 1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20
Nov
21		 Pepperdine F C- A F F 33% 11% 56% C- F C- A+ A- B- F A+ F A- A+ C D+ B 38% 24% 38% C B- A F C A- C+ F D
0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02 0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25
Nov
29		 Texas Arlington D+ F B D- D+ 41% 37% 22% D D+ B+ F+ C C+ F B F C A+ F F C 59% 15% 26% F C- D- A B- C+ F F+ F
0.99 48% 42% 27% -5 -2 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 16% .15 75% .12 1.07 39% 67% 40% -4 +2 0.97 41% 0.7 .30 21% .51 80% .41
Dec
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F+ D C+ D 26% 36% 38% F D- D B+ C A+ B+ C- B A A A- A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% D A+ B+ A+ A+ F D C+ D+
1.07 50% 32% 35% -4 -3 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 10% .39 71% .28 0.88 46% 27% 25% -12 +1 0.80 23% 0.6 .14 12% .26 75% .20
Dec
7		 Louisiana Monroe B+ A+ F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- A- D C- D A D F D- D B- B+ A+ A+ 46% 18% 37% F+ A- F F F F D- F+ F
1.32 91% 21% 45% +15 0 1.31 32% 1.1 .35 11% .20 62% .12 1.04 50% 30% 19% -13 +1 0.77 30% 1.4 .42 12% .38 79% .30
Dec
17		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C C F A+ C+ 45% 29% 26% D C+ C- B- C B+ A+ F A+ B- B A- B+ B 50% 17% 33% D- B- F C+ D- C+ F A+ D
1.08 59% 18% 50% +1 -1 1.03 28% 1.1 .31 17% .72 55% .40 0.94 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.86 38% 0.9 .35 19% .48 56% .27
Dec
29		 East Texas A&M B F A+ B- C 25% 27% 47% F D+ B+ D+ B- A- C- C C- A+ A+ C+ F+ C+ 30% 26% 45% A B B+ A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ A+
1.16 38% 50% 38% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 14% .30 71% .21 0.74 36% 33% 38% -5 -1 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 22% .28 29% .08
Dec
31		 Northwestern St. C+ B B- F D+ 46% 18% 36% C+ D+ C+ F F+ A- C D+ C B B- C A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% F B- A+ F B+ F F A+ D-
1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25 0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27
Jan
3		 SE Louisiana C+ F B+ C+ D+ 28% 32% 40% F+ D A F C+ B- D+ B C- B- C- B+ B+ C+ 30% 34% 36% A B- B F F+ C A+ F B
1.10 43% 44% 35% -2 -2 0.94 42% 0.9 .37 18% .35 79% .27 0.95 60% 29% 28% -6 -2 0.86 23% 1.5 .34 18% .20 91% .18
Jan
5		 McNeese St. C+ F+ A+ D D+ 35% 17% 48% C D+ B- B B C F F F B- D+ F B+ C- 33% 16% 51% B- C- D A+ A+ D B+ A+ A
1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09 1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Houston Christian A B- A+ D+ C- 40% 8% 52% B- C- A+ F+ B+ A+ F+ A+ D+ D+ F F+ B- F+ 45% 17% 38% D F+ C C- C- A F+ F F
1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18 1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29
Jan
12		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 39% 27% 33% F+ F C+ D+ C C C+ F F+ A+ B B A+ A+ 53% 24% 22% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B C B- C+
0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22 0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18
Jan
17		 New Orleans B+ C+ A A A 38% 28% 34% D- B+ B- F F A+ A+ D A D+ C F C+ F 30% 37% 33% A+ D- C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33 1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11
Jan
19		 Nicholls St. B A B+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% D+ A- A- F F B B- B- B- A- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% B- A+ F B+ D C- C- F D-
1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30 0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
24		 Lamar A+ A+ A A+ A+ 17% 36% 47% F A+ F B D- A+ D B- C- F+ F D+ B D 29% 27% 44% D D D+ F F C D F F
1.31 78% 47% 48% +17 -4 1.28 20% 1.2 .23 9% .34 71% .25 1.21 67% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.7 .61 16% .27 87% .23
Jan
27		 Northwestern St. F F+ F C- F 30% 36% 34% F F F A+ D+ B+ D- F F B A+ B+ C A+ 43% 31% 26% C A+ C- F D- D- A B A
0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18 0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15
Jan
31		 SE Louisiana A+ A F A+ A+ 24% 22% 53% D A+ B+ A+ A+ A F F F C A B D C 33% 33% 35% B+ C+ D+ F F B+ D+ F F+
1.40 73% 20% 58% +19 -1 1.38 38% 1.8 .67 15% .21 64% .14 0.96 46% 31% 36% -5 -2 0.88 30% 1.3 .37 21% .36 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 McNeese St. D- F A+ C+ C- 33% 24% 43% D D+ C+ F D A+ D A- C- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C- F F A+ C+ C+ C+
0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28 0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22
Feb
7		 Lamar B+ B A A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A F B+ D- A+ C- A+ B D+ A F C- F 28% 46% 26% A D- B+ C B D+ C+ F C-
1.23 64% 47% 53% +15 -3 1.25 19% 1.2 .23 12% .37 82% .30 1.09 40% 60% 36% +6 -4 1.06 29% 1.0 .29 15% .21 83% .17
Feb
9		 East Texas A&M C C F B- D 47% 22% 31% C- D B- F D+ B+ B- D- C D F F+ D F 32% 15% 53% C F A+ D- A B C C- C-
1.11 58% 18% 38% -2 +1 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 15% .35 65% .23 1.05 87% 43% 36% +12 0 1.26 8% 1.0 .08 21% .25 69% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 10.0 29.4 34.8 17.8 93.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.8 6.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.6 13.8 29.4 34.8 17.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 17.8    17.8
20-2 100.0% 34.8    34.8
19-3 100.0% 29.4    21.3 8.2
18-4 72.7% 10.0    4.8 5.2
17-5 35.4% 1.3    0.4 0.9
16-6 9.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total 93.3% 93.3 79.1 14.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 17.8% 42.8% 42.8% 11.9 0.0 1.7 5.3 0.6 0.0 10.2
20-2 34.8% 40.6% 40.6% 12.3 0.7 8.8 4.4 0.2 20.7
19-3 29.4% 35.4% 35.4% 12.5 0.2 5.1 4.6 0.5 19.0
18-4 13.8% 32.3% 32.3% 12.8 1.5 2.4 0.6 9.3
17-5 3.6% 26.1% 26.1% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.6
16-6 0.6% 27.0% 27.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 37.7% 37.7% 0.0% 12.3 62.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.6% 100.0% 11.9 0.1 22.3 69.2 8.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%