North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #127
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 #121
Pace 63.0 #328
Improvement +2.6 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #280 D C D B- B+
Defense #44 B+ C A+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.12 #222 +5.1 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.55 #361 -2.9 #316
Three Pointers 33% #325 0.89 #329 -6.0 #340
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #286 -3.8 #285
Freethrows 19.9 #73 70% #261 13.9 #114
Second Chance 32.6% #130 1.04 #188 0.34 #135
Turnovers 18.4% #300
Total Offense -3.9 #280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.05 #58 +1.8 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #107 0.76 #181 -0.7 #237
Three Pointers 38% #253 0.89 #42 +3.8 #45
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.9 #47
Freethrows 22.7 #353 71% #106 16.1 #345
Second Chance 32.9% #274 0.98 #97 0.32 #196
Turnovers 21.1% #11
Total Defense +6.0 #44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #46 -0.3% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.6% #328 -9.3% #38
Possession Length 18.5 #292 17.6 #227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #88 0.18 #227
Improvement +0.6 #152 +2.0 #65

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.4% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 12.8
.500 or above 90.6% 93.1% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 80.8% 53.1%
Conference Champion 3.1% 3.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.2% 4.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 411 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 276 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 86% +8  1 - 0 +18 +15 A A+ D +8 C+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 268 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  2 - 0 -4 -9 F F F +5 A+ C C
 Wed, Nov 12 195 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 55% +6  2 - 1 -1 -2 B- C+ F +0 A- B F
 Fri, Nov 14 42 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 12% -23  2 - 2 -16 -14 F F A- -4 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 236 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 81% +5  3 - 2 +11 -1 F D- A- +12 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 243 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 82% +2  4 - 2 +0 -2 F C+ B- +3 A C+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 317 Prairie View W 72 - 69 91% -2  5 - 2 -10 -7 B+ F F -3 C D B-
 Tue, Dec 2 298 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 88% +1  6 - 2 -9 +6 A+ B- F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 45 TCU L 55 - 65 28% -2  6 - 3 -2 -9 F D+ C- +7 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 191 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 54% +4  7 - 3 +2 -7 F B F +10 A+ F A
 Wed, Dec 17 54 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 21% +2  7 - 4 +7 -6 F A+ A- +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 92 @Memphis L 48 - 57 26% -8  7 - 5 0 - 1 -0 -14 F C F +14 C B A+
 Sun, Jan 4 70 Tulsa W 72 - 67 39% -0  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +7 C A A +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 74 South Florida L 70 - 74 40% -0  8 - 6 1 - 2 +1 +1 B- B- C+ -0 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 103 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 30% -8  8 - 7 1 - 3 -3 -4 F B+ D+ +0 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 18 172 @Tulane W 71 - 63 50% +6  9 - 7 2 - 3 +10 +2 D+ D- F +8 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 21 345 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 93% +14  10 - 7 3 - 3 +4 +4 D+ A+ F +0 C A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 267 East Carolina W 70 - 59 85%
 Wed, Jan 28 70 @Tulsa L 65 - 74 20%
 Sat, Jan 31 117 UAB W 69 - 67 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 239 @Rice W 66 - 63 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 345 @Texas San Antonio W 72 - 61 85%
 Thu, Feb 12 92 Memphis L 64 - 65 47%
 Sun, Feb 15 140 @Temple L 65 - 67 42%
 Wed, Feb 18 172 Tulane W 68 - 62 71%
 Sun, Feb 22 95 Florida Atlantic L 68 - 69 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 173 @Charlotte W 65 - 64 51%
 Sun, Mar 1 117 @UAB L 66 - 70 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 239 Rice W 69 - 60 81%
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +2 -4 D C D +6 B+ C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.1 0.2 3.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 3.0 0.4 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 5.6 1.1 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.5 2.8 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 6.5 0.4 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 8.6 1.6 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.5 4.1 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 0.5 4.8 5.9 0.5 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.7 1.2 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.7 13.2 18.2 20.9 18.2 11.8 5.8 1.5 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 70.5% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 27.4% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.5% 14.6% 14.6% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-5 5.8% 9.3% 9.3% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 5.3
12-6 11.8% 9.1% 9.1% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 10.7
11-7 18.2% 5.2% 5.2% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 17.3
10-8 20.9% 3.6% 3.6% 12.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 20.2
9-9 18.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.9
8-10 13.2% 1.5% 1.5% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.0
7-11 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 12.6 95.8 0.0%