North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#145
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#142
Pace62.2#349
Improvement-1.0#256

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#212
First Shot-2.9#256
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#110
Layup/Dunks+2.4#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#328
Freethrows+2.8#52
Improvement+1.2#78

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#94
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#157
Layups/Dunks+2.4#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#66
Freethrows-4.7#358
Improvement-2.2#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.6% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 66.1% 83.0% 60.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.8% 63.0% 50.7%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.8% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.3% 5.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.5% 4.6% 3.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 410 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 302 Northwestern St. W 80-53 86%     1 - 0 +16.2 +14.9 +6.3
  Sun, Nov 9 259 Loyola Chicago W 64-62 73%     2 - 0 -3.5 -8.4 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 163 @Oregon St. L 64-66 44%     2 - 1 +0.4 -1.0 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 14 42 @St. Mary's L 49-80 10%     2 - 2 -16.2 -13.1 -4.6
  Thu, Nov 20 273 Central Arkansas W 74-56 83%     3 - 2 +8.9 -0.4 +9.6
  Tue, Nov 25 251 Eastern Washington W 79-71 OT 80%     4 - 2 +0.0 -3.7 +3.3
  Sun, Nov 30 322 Prairie View W 72-69 88%     5 - 2 -9.2 -6.0 -3.2
  Tue, Dec 2 282 Houston Christian W 77-75 84%     6 - 2 -7.6 +8.2 -15.6
  Sun, Dec 7 48 TCU L 63-70 25%    
  Sun, Dec 14 165 @South Alabama L 64-65 45%    
  Wed, Dec 17 55 Santa Clara L 65-74 21%    
  Wed, Dec 31 75 @Memphis L 64-74 19%    
  Sun, Jan 4 91 Tulsa L 67-69 43%    
  Wed, Jan 7 79 South Florida L 70-73 38%    
  Sun, Jan 11 97 @Wichita St. L 63-70 26%    
  Sun, Jan 18 172 @Tulane L 69-70 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 269 Texas San Antonio W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 East Carolina W 72-63 78%    
  Wed, Jan 28 91 @Tulsa L 64-72 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 112 UAB W 70-69 50%    
  Wed, Feb 4 217 @Rice W 66-65 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 269 @Texas San Antonio W 70-66 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 75 Memphis L 67-71 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 157 @Temple L 70-72 43%    
  Wed, Feb 18 172 Tulane W 72-67 67%    
  Sun, Feb 22 126 Florida Atlantic W 69-68 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 186 @Charlotte L 64-65 49%    
  Sun, Mar 1 112 @UAB L 66-72 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 217 Rice W 69-62 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 4.6 1.6 0.1 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 5.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.2 1.0 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.6 1.5 0.1 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.3 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 3.9 2.8 0.3 8.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 8.5 12.3 13.8 13.9 13.1 10.9 7.4 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.3% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 79.4% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 55.0% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 43.8% 37.5% 6.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0%
16-2 0.4% 19.6% 19.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.1% 18.5% 18.5% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.4% 19.8% 19.8% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-5 4.5% 10.8% 10.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.0
12-6 7.4% 7.8% 7.8% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.8
11-7 10.9% 5.9% 5.9% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.3
10-8 13.1% 3.4% 3.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.7
9-9 13.9% 2.0% 2.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.6
8-10 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.7
7-11 12.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2
6-12 8.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 8.5
5-13 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-14 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 12.8 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 96.5 0.0%