North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#344
Expected Predictive Rating-17.8#357
Pace78.6#18
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#262
First Shot-2.3#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#267
Layup/Dunks-4.6#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#9
Freethrows-5.2#360
Improvement-0.4#218

Defense
Total Defense-8.0#360
First Shot-1.8#234
After Offensive Rebounds-6.2#365
Layups/Dunks-5.2#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement+0.4#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 11.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 11.2% 22.2% 11.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 34.5% 33.3% 34.5%
First Four0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 14 @Florida L 64-104 1%     0 - 1 -19.0 -5.6 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 17 @Tennessee L 66-99 1%     0 - 2 -13.8 -2.3 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 19 247 @Wofford L 78-86 18%     0 - 3 -9.7 +1.1 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 22 224 Southern Miss L 83-92 23%     0 - 4 -12.8 +5.0 -17.6
  Sun, Nov 23 322 Prairie View L 82-85 41%     0 - 5 -12.1 +2.6 -14.6
  Tue, Dec 2 230 SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 33%     0 - 6 -16.0 -6.5 -10.2
  Sun, Dec 7 4 @Gonzaga L 66-102 0.0%   
  Sat, Dec 13 70 @Dayton L 69-92 2%    
  Thu, Dec 18 285 @Charleston Southern L 78-86 24%    
  Sun, Dec 21 32 @Miami (FL) L 68-96 0.5%   
  Sun, Dec 28 130 Columbia L 76-87 16%    
  Thu, Jan 1 180 @Austin Peay L 73-86 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 161 @Lipscomb L 74-88 10%    
  Thu, Jan 8 318 West Georgia W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 196 Queens L 83-89 29%    
  Thu, Jan 15 200 @North Alabama L 73-85 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 279 @Central Arkansas L 75-83 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 269 Eastern Kentucky L 83-86 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 292 Bellarmine L 82-83 45%    
  Thu, Jan 29 347 Stetson W 81-78 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 161 Lipscomb L 77-85 24%    
  Thu, Feb 5 318 @West Georgia L 77-83 31%    
  Sat, Feb 7 196 @Queens L 80-92 14%    
  Wed, Feb 11 174 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78-91 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 291 @Jacksonville L 73-80 26%    
  Thu, Feb 19 180 Austin Peay L 76-83 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 347 @Stetson L 78-81 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 174 Florida Gulf Coast L 81-88 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 Jacksonville L 76-77 45%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 3.6 1.3 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.3 2.4 0.3 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.9 5.1 1.0 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.9 7.7 5.3 1.2 0.0 20.5 11th
12th 1.1 3.9 7.0 6.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 23.5 12th
Total 1.1 4.0 8.2 12.3 14.9 15.4 13.8 11.0 8.2 5.2 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 57.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.5
10-8 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1
9-9 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.1
8-10 8.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.1
7-11 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 12.3% 12.3
2-16 8.2% 8.2
1-17 4.0% 4.0
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%