Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Results Rating -2.9 214
Consistency 0.16 251
Pace 82.9 1
Improvement +4.2 45

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 182 C C- F+ B- A-
Defense D+ 264 D+ C- C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 221 C 58% 186 -1.0 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 360 F 26% 364 -6.0 365
Three Pointers 56% 1 C 34% 191 +7.4 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 17 C- -1.2 218
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 155
Second Chance C 30.1% 189 C- 1.00 238 C- 0.30 199
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 251
Other Turnovers F 10.5% 364
Turnovers F+ 20.5% 350
Freethrows C 0.30 185 A- 78% 12 B- 0.24 117
Total Offense C -0.7 182

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F+ 32% 352 C 10.6% 160
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F -2% 365 F 9.5% 354
Three Pointers D 79% 299 C 0.9% 199
Total D+ 51% 274 C+ 5.2% 130


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 D+ 62% 291 +1.4 224
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 295 C- 40% 249 -1.1 99
Three Pointers 45% 72 C 34% 169 +1.8 274
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 260 C- +1.6 244
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 251
Second Chance C- 31.7% 249 C- 1.06 235 C- 0.34 247
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.0% 291
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 112
Turnovers C- 15.7% 241
Freethrows C+ 0.29 129 C- 73% 236 C+ 0.21 146
Total Defense D+ -3.0 264

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 122 D- 6.4% 341
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 81 D+ 3.0% 287
Three Pointers C- 85% 233 D 0.3% 313
Total C 55% 168 D- 3.1% 346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.5 4 17.3 178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 97 0.22 327
Consistency 0.12 158 0.13 234
Improvement +4.3 22 -0.1 196

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 252 229 204
Results Rating Rank 247 218 190
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 86% 100% 84%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UC Irvine (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 78 - 12
Quad 45 - 713 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @USC L 64 - 94 8% -12  0% 0 - 1 F+ -18 F -14 D+ D+ F C+ +1 C A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 117 @Seattle W 73 - 71 18% -4  14% 1 - 1 B- +8 C +1 B C F A- +7 D+ B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 92 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 12% -9  0% 1 - 2 C- -5 C- -1 B F+ D D+ -3 C- B- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 205 @Montana L 82 - 90 34% -7  3% 1 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- C D D+ -4 B+ F+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 104 @Utah W 92 - 85 15% +7  90% 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +4 A+ B- F A +10 B- A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 316 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 61% -0  35% 2 - 4 D- -13 D -5 C+ F F D- -7 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 223 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 50% -3  54% 2 - 5 F -20 F -11 F A F D- -8 D+ D+ C-
 Thu, Dec 4 203 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 33% +5  85% 3 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 A+ F F B- +2 C- D- A
 Sat, Dec 6 275 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 71% -7  14% 3 - 6 1 - 1 D- -13 B- +4 B+ F+ D- F -17 F+ F F
 Tue, Dec 16 147 Montana St. L 80 - 83 43% -3  18% 3 - 7 D+ -5 C+ +2 F A+ C D- -7 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 30 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3% -7  23% 3 - 8 C- -3 B+ +9 A+ C+ F F+ -10 F A D-
 Sun, Dec 21 181 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 53% -7  5% 3 - 9 D+ -7 F -10 F F D B- +3 B C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 132 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 40% -2  17% 4 - 9 2 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 D- B- B B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 47% -10  1% 4 - 10 2 - 2 D -11 F -12 F C B- C+ +1 D+ C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 28% +3  73% 4 - 11 2 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 C C C D -6 F D C
 Sat, Jan 10 175 UC Davis W 84 - 78 51% -6  9% 5 - 11 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 D- C A+ C -1 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 118 Hawaii L 66 - 86 36% -8  2% 5 - 12 3 - 4 F -20 F -13 C B- F D -5 D- C C+
 Thu, Jan 22 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 23% -24  0% 5 - 13 3 - 5 F -36 D -5 C F+ D- F -32 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 203 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 56% -8  8% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F -20 D -5 C- B+ F F -15 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 329 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 67% +15  83% 6 - 14 4 - 6 A- +17 A +14 A+ C F C +0 F+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 31 275 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 48% +2  67% 7 - 14 5 - 6 C+ +4 A +13 A C+ C- F+ -10 F F A
 Thu, Feb 5 168 Cal St. Northridge L 96 - 97 50% -5  18% 7 - 15 5 - 7 C- -5 B+ +8 A+ C D- F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @UC Davis L 58 - 67 29% +2  72% 7 - 16 5 - 8 D+ -7 F -16 F D F A +9 A- C+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 124 UC Irvine W 79 - 73 37% -2  41% 8 - 16 6 - 8 B- +6 C -0 B A F B+ +5 C A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 142 UC Santa Barbara W 89 - 79 43% -0  54% 9 - 16 7 - 8 B- +8 A+ +15 A B- A D -6 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 118 @Hawaii W 86 - 75 18% +6  96% 10 - 16 8 - 8 A- +17 B- +4 B F C A+ +11 A B B-
 Thu, Feb 26 268 Long Beach St. W 102 - 92 69% +7  83% 11 - 16 9 - 8 C +1 B+ +9 C- A+ A+ F+ -9 C D+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 132 @UC San Diego L 64 - 80 21% -9  8% 11 - 17 9 - 9 D -11 D- -7 C D F D+ -4 C- B+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 124 @UC Irvine L 73 - 83 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 329 Cal St. Bakersfield W 91 - 81 84%
Totals 12 - 18 10 - 10 -4 C -1 C- C- A- D+ -3 C A- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C F C C- 37% 14% 56% A- C C C- C- F+ C A- B- D+ D+ C- C C- 38% 17% 45% D+ D+ C- C- C- C- C+ C- C+
1.08 58% 26% 34% -1 +2 1.03 30% 1.0 .30 20% .30 78% .24 1.13 62% 40% 34% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .34 16% .29 73% .22
Nov
3		 USC F F A D D- 48% 4% 48% A+ D+ B+ F D+ F F F F C+ C A+ D B- 46% 9% 44% F C C- A+ A- C F B+ F
0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12 1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39
Nov
8		 Seattle C D- D- A- B 32% 6% 62% B+ B A F C F A+ C+ A+ A- D+ F B- C- 44% 11% 45% D- D+ F A+ B- A A- A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 38% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.7 .29 30% .41 73% .30 0.93 63% 50% 32% +2 +2 1.09 32% 0.6 .19 22% .24 36% .08
Nov
12		 Colorado St. C- D B- A- B- 31% 13% 56% B B D F F+ D C F D+ D+ C- A+ F C- 33% 5% 61% D- C- A+ F B- D- C+ F D-
1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18 1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30
Nov
14		 Montana D+ D- F C D- 59% 10% 31% A+ C- C C C D B- C+ B- D+ D- A+ A A- 36% 14% 50% D+ B+ C- F F+ F F D F
1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22 1.11 67% 25% 28% -4 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Utah C+ F D- A+ A 56% 6% 38% A+ A+ C B+ B- F A+ F A+ A C+ C B- B+ 47% 8% 45% F B- A+ C- A+ B+ C- F D-
1.10 45% 33% 60% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 23% .48 58% .28 1.02 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.05 16% 1.0 .16 19% .33 82% .27
Nov
24		 Northern Arizona D B F C+ C 43% 2% 55% A- C+ F+ F F F D- A D+ D- C- F F F 39% 21% 39% D+ F+ F+ C- D- D+ F A+ F
1.10 65% 0% 36% +4 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19 1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27
Nov
25		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F F F 34% 15% 51% C F A B- A F A+ A A+ D- C- F A- C- 50% 7% 43% F D+ F B D+ C- B+ F D+
0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56 1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Fullerton C D+ A A+ A+ 27% 4% 69% B A+ F F F F A+ C+ A+ B- A- F F C- 41% 22% 37% C- C- D- D D- A F B- F
1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35 1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29
Dec
6		 UC Riverside B- A- A+ C B 45% 6% 49% A B+ C F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F+ 48% 19% 33% D F+ C F F F D- A D+
1.18 68% 67% 33% +6 +2 1.18 30% 0.6 .18 18% .45 81% .36 1.23 73% 50% 22% +4 +1 1.11 27% 1.3 .36 7% .36 67% .24
Dec
16		 Montana St. C+ F D- F F 45% 6% 49% A- F A A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ 30% 14% 55% F+ A- D- F F F F B+ F
1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36 1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27
Dec
19		 UCLA B+ A F A+ A+ 34% 2% 64% A+ A+ C B- C+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ F B+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F A D- F F F
1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38 1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37
Dec
21		 Idaho F B- A F F 33% 7% 60% A F D+ F F D A+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B- 19% 26% 54% A+ B B+ F C+ C+ F D F
0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45 1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30
Jan
1		 UC San Diego D+ C F F+ F+ 26% 7% 67% B- D- A- D B- B C- C+ C- B A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B A+ F F F C+ B F C-
1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17 0.98 41% 25% 25% -15 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20
Jan
3		 Long Beach St. F F F D- F 35% 8% 56% B F D- A+ C B- A- D+ B C+ F A- A+ C- 47% 26% 26% F D+ B+ F C C- C- B C
0.93 35% 0% 30% -15 +1 0.75 22% 1.6 .36 15% .42 72% .30 1.04 76% 29% 21% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 71% .20
Jan
8		 Cal St. Northridge B- C F B- C 23% 13% 64% C C D A+ C C C+ C+ C+ D D+ F+ F F 53% 13% 34% D F F B- D C F A- D-
1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24 1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24
Jan
10		 UC Davis C+ C+ A+ F D- 28% 11% 60% C- D- F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- A D- B- 20% 33% 47% A+ B+ B+ F C D- B- F C-
1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41 1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27
Jan
15		 Hawaii F C A+ F+ C- 40% 8% 52% A- C A F+ B- F C F D D F F A F+ 40% 21% 39% B+ D- C- C+ C C+ A+ F A
0.85 55% 50% 27% -6 +2 0.94 36% 0.9 .31 30% .31 59% .18 1.10 70% 58% 27% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.0 .31 19% .22 86% .19
Jan
22		 UC Santa Barbara D A+ F F C- 39% 7% 54% A- C F B- F+ D- C+ D+ C F F A F F 41% 13% 46% D- F F D+ F F A+ B A+
1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26 1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Cal St. Fullerton D D- A+ C- D+ 28% 6% 67% B C- A+ D B+ F D+ C+ D+ F D F F F 38% 10% 52% F F F A+ C+ C- F F F
1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20 1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33
Jan
29		 Cal St. Bakersfield A A+ F A A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ A+ F C F D+ A+ A C A- F D- F 31% 29% 40% C- F+ F+ F F B+ A+ A+ A+
1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34 1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Riverside A A- A+ C+ B+ 52% 6% 43% A+ A B+ D- C+ C- C A+ B F+ D+ F D+ F 35% 31% 33% A F F B+ F A F A F
1.26 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 38% 0.8 .31 16% .34 81% .27 1.17 61% 56% 35% +7 -2 1.14 54% 0.7 .38 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
5		 Cal St. Northridge B+ A+ A- A+ 33% 0% 67% A A+ F A+ C D- F A+ D+ F C+ F F F 49% 17% 33% C F B+ F F C- A+ D- A+
1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20 1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10
Feb
7		 UC Davis F F A+ F F 41% 2% 57% A- F C+ F D F D A+ B+ A C- A+ A A 42% 15% 44% D- A- F A+ C+ A- B- F C-
0.84 32% 100% 27% -16 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28 0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28
Feb
12		 UC Irvine C B F B- B- 28% 10% 62% B B B+ A- A F B+ C+ B+ B+ A A+ F C 34% 22% 44% C- C B A+ A+ A- A- D B
0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22 0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 -1 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16
Feb
14		 UC Santa Barbara A+ A A B A 43% 8% 49% A A C B+ B- A A A A+ D A F B- B 28% 15% 57% C+ B B F F F C- B- C
1.33 71% 50% 38% +9 +2 1.24 28% 1.3 .34 12% .44 81% .36 1.18 47% 63% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.6 .43 12% .32 74% .24
Feb
19		 Hawaii B- A+ F F+ B- 47% 8% 44% A B F F F C A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% D- A C- A B B- F B+ F
1.04 71% 0% 27% -2 +2 1.03 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 81% .32 0.91 68% 0% 14% -11 +2 0.84 31% 0.8 .26 21% .58 68% .40
Feb
26		 Long Beach St. B+ F+ A C+ D 41% 6% 53% A- C- C- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B- F+ C- F B+ C- 27% 36% 36% B+ C B F D+ F B F C-
1.27 50% 50% 35% -2 +2 1.03 28% 2.0 .55 10% .30 95% .29 1.15 61% 46% 29% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 10% .24 88% .21
Feb
28		 UC San Diego D- B A+ D- C- 25% 8% 67% B- C F+ B D F F A+ D- D+ F A C+ C- 40% 19% 41% B C- C+ A B+ F C+ A- B-
0.91 62% 50% 29% -4 +1 0.96 19% 1.1 .22 21% .14 100% .14 1.14 70% 27% 33% +2 0 1.07 24% 0.8 .20 9% .25 63% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 7.3 7.3 5th
6th 8.5 6.6 15.0 6th
7th 32.2 1.1 33.3 7th
8th 13.5 30.6 44.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 13.5 71.2 15.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 15.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 15.0
10-10 71.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 70.5
9-11 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.9 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.5 48.9 51.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 9.1%