Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#252
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#213
Pace86.2#2
Improvement-1.8#305

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#237
First Shot-1.3#213
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks-4.9#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#12
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+1.5#69

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#259
First Shot-4.1#311
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#90
Layups/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#273
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement-3.3#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 8.7% 13.9% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 32.4% 23.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 8.2% 12.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 47 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 35 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -14.2 -12.8 +3.3
  Sat, Nov 8 113 @Seattle W 73-71 14%     1 - 1 +8.6 -0.7 +9.1
  Wed, Nov 12 72 @Colorado St. L 79-93 8%     1 - 2 -3.1 +1.3 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 14 206 @Montana L 82-90 30%     1 - 3 -7.7 -3.2 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 114 @Utah W 92-85 14%     2 - 3 +13.4 +5.5 +6.8
  Mon, Nov 24 251 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 38%     2 - 4 -8.0 +3.1 -10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 44%     2 - 5 -19.6 -10.1 -8.5
  Thu, Dec 4 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 50%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -2.0 +1.5 -4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 258 UC Riverside L 84-88 62%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -12.3 +4.4 -16.7
  Tue, Dec 16 164 Montana St. L 78-80 45%    
  Fri, Dec 19 27 @UCLA L 67-89 2%    
  Sun, Dec 21 173 Idaho L 82-83 47%    
  Thu, Jan 1 103 UC San Diego L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 280 @Long Beach St. L 79-81 44%    
  Thu, Jan 8 261 @Cal St. Northridge L 86-89 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 170 UC Davis L 78-79 46%    
  Thu, Jan 15 104 Hawaii L 79-86 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 78-87 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 94-88 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 83-84 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 258 @UC Riverside L 80-83 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 261 Cal St. Northridge W 89-86 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 170 @UC Davis L 75-82 26%    
  Thu, Feb 12 120 UC Irvine L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Feb 14 141 UC Santa Barbara L 81-84 38%    
  Fri, Feb 20 104 @Hawaii L 76-89 13%    
  Thu, Feb 26 280 Long Beach St. W 82-78 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 103 @UC San Diego L 77-90 13%    
  Thu, Mar 5 120 @UC Irvine L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Mar 7 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-81 69%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.3 4.6 1.2 0.2 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.9 4.0 0.7 0.1 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 5.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.2 9.0 12.3 14.9 14.5 13.4 10.8 7.3 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 72.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 34.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 30.9% 30.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 18.2% 18.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.2% 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.7% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6
12-8 4.6% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5
11-9 7.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
10-10 10.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
9-11 13.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.3
8-12 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
7-13 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
6-14 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.3
5-15 9.0% 9.0
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 2.4% 2.4
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%