Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.2 #116
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #127
Pace 68.7 #188
Improvement -2.3 #288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #83 B- B- A- C+ B-
Defense #195 D+ D- B+ A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.20 #129 +3.2 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.89 #36 +0.3 #160
Three Pointers 39% #215 1.02 #180 -0.8 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #109 +2.6 #109
Freethrows 18.6 #134 73% #152 13.6 #130
Second Chance 30.2% #194 1.20 #28 0.36 #94
Turnovers 13.4% #25
Total Offense +3.9 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.17 #192 +0.9 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.75 #161 +1.2 #99
Three Pointers 46% #50 1.12 #312 -5.0 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #272 -2.9 #274
Freethrows 13.2 #15 74% #283 9.8 #21
Second Chance 29.0% #113 1.30 #362 0.38 #315
Turnovers 18.9% #55
Total Defense -0.8 #195

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #109 0.5% #213
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.9% #114 5.1% #272
Possession Length 16.5 #95 18.7 #341
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #50 0.15 #99
Improvement -1.5 #268 -0.8 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.0
.500 or above 1.7% 7.6% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 66.1% 41.3% 68.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 11
Quad 21 - 72 - 18
Quad 32 - 14 - 19
Quad 48 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 274 Fairfield W 76 - 68 87% -2  1 - 0 -1 -2 D D+ A+ +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 331 @New Haven W 87 - 43 84% +18  2 - 0 +36 +24 C A+ A+ +18 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 194 Navy W 80 - 71 79% +6  3 - 0 +4 +8 C A+ A -4 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 197 La Salle W 83 - 69 71% +11  4 - 0 +11 +17 A+ C- A+ -5 D F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 168 Harvard W 84 - 80 75% +2  5 - 0 +0 +18 A- A A+ -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 22 65 Providence L 65 - 77 30% -3  5 - 1 -4 -8 F C C +5 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 285 Boston University W 96 - 87 89% +12  6 - 1 -1 +24 A+ A+ A+ -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 270 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 87% +21  7 - 1 +22 +2 B- A+ F +17 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 190 Campbell W 87 - 76 78% +5  8 - 1 +6 +7 A F A+ -1 D F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 37 @Indiana L 72 - 113 11% -28  8 - 2 0 - 1 -25 +2 B- A- D -25 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 11 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 10% -1  8 - 3 0 - 2 +13 +12 B+ A+ A+ +1 C C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 91 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 40% -16  8 - 4 -28 -22 F F D- -9 F C+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 346 NC Central W 90 - 67 94% +8  9 - 4 +8 +12 A+ F C+ -3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 9 Illinois L 65 - 73 10% -10  9 - 5 0 - 3 +9 +1 D B+ B+ +8 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 5% -5  9 - 6 0 - 4 +20 +9 F A+ A+ +11 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 5 @Purdue L 85 - 93 4% -5  9 - 7 0 - 5 +16 +26 A+ A+ B -10 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 36 UCLA L 60 - 71 24% -3  9 - 8 0 - 6 -1 +1 B F C+ -4 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 100 @Maryland L 73 - 96 32% -15  9 - 9 0 - 7 -15 +10 A+ F A+ -26 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 35 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 24% -20  9 - 10 0 - 8 -16 +1 F B A+ -17 F A D-
 Mon, Jan 26 30 @Ohio St. L 71 - 85 9%
 Thu, Jan 29 60 @Northwestern L 71 - 80 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 71 Minnesota L 70 - 72 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 94 1%
 Sun, Feb 8 48 USC L 76 - 81 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 47 @Washington L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 68 @Oregon L 72 - 80 23%
 Wed, Feb 18 115 Rutgers W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 14 @Nebraska L 67 - 85 5%
 Sat, Feb 28 23 Iowa L 67 - 77 17%
 Wed, Mar 4 30 Ohio St. L 74 - 82 23%
 Sun, Mar 8 115 @Rutgers L 73 - 76 39%
Totals 12 - 19 3 - 17 +3 +4 B- B- A- -1 D+ D- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.5 2.7 1.6 0.1 4.9 14th
15th 0.3 3.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 8.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 3.5 7.7 2.0 0.1 13.5 16th
17th 0.6 5.0 12.3 5.4 0.4 23.7 17th
18th 4.4 13.7 18.4 8.8 0.9 0.0 46.2 18th
Total 4.4 14.3 23.6 24.9 17.8 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.5%
7-13 1.2% 1.2
6-14 3.9% 3.9
5-15 9.4% 9.4
4-16 17.8% 17.8
3-17 24.9% 24.9
2-18 23.6% 23.6
1-19 14.3% 14.3
0-20 4.4% 4.4
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%