American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 258
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 257
Pace 68.0 202
Improvement -4.0 329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #258 C D- C D+ B-
Defense C- #251 D C C+ F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 56% 225 -1.6 241
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 316 36% 235 -2.9 315
Three Pointers 49% 30 34% 187 +4.2 49
1st FG Attempt 1.01 187 -0.3 186
Second Chance 25.6% 314 0.91 323 0.23 335
Turnovers 17.0% 186
Freethrows 0.25 329 76% 68 0.19 286
Total Offense -3.1 258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 62% 287 -4.0 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 165 40% 253 -0.6 235
Three Pointers 37% 306 36% 273 +1.0 135
1st FG Attempt 1.09 294 -3.6 294
Second Chance 31.7% 234 1.00 132 0.32 197
Turnovers 18.1% 105
Freethrows 0.39 351 72% 176 0.28 348
Total Defense -2.5 251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 78 +0.2 212
Shot Type Accuracy -1.0 206 +3.2 299
Possession Length 17.9 250 16.5 51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 160 0.18 225
Improvement -1.5 #275 -2.5 #304

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 12% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 52% 59% 21%
.500 or above in Conference 75% 82% 45%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 2%
First Four6% 6% 5%
First Round8% 9% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 414 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 7% -9  2% 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 C+ B- D- C +0 B+ F+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 185 Penn W 84 - 78 46% +3  76% 1 - 1 C +1 C- -2 B- D D+ B- +2 C B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 84 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  0% 1 - 2 F -30 F -11 C F F+ F -16 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 122 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 15% -1  44% 1 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 D- D- A+ C -1 C+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 338 Maine W 74 - 61 80% +12  98% 2 - 3 C -2 C- -1 B- F A+ C -0 F B- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 181 Siena L 55 - 59 45% -1  24% 2 - 4 D -8 F -23 F D- F A+ +15 B+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 261 Longwood W 92 - 66 62% +8  73% 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +11 B- B B B +6 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 217 Drexel W 75 - 73 51% -1  42% 4 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 B+ F A+ D -7 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 82% +10  71% 5 - 4 C+ +3 B +7 A- D- B- C- -2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 5% -12  2% 5 - 5 D -8 A +12 B+ D+ A F -20 F+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 22 23 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -22  0% 5 - 6 F -25 F+ -10 D- C- B- F -19 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 312 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 73% +10  86% 6 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 A F+ B- C- -2 F+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 275 @Boston University W 64 - 62 42% +5  77% 7 - 6 2 - 0 C -1 D -5 C F D+ B- +4 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 209 @Colgate L 62 - 64 29% +5  84% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -2 D+ -2 A F D- C +0 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 321 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 76% -3  44% 7 - 8 2 - 2 F -24 F+ -10 F C- C F -14 F D+ D
 Mon, Jan 12 166 Navy W 65 - 51 42% +11  98% 8 - 8 3 - 2 B +11 C- -2 C- F A+ A+ +14 A+ A A-
 Sun, Jan 18 341 @Army W 78 - 67 63% +7  93% 9 - 8 4 - 2 C+ +2 B +6 C+ A+ F C- -3 D- C D
 Wed, Jan 21 209 Colgate W 70 - 66 51% +1  53% 10 - 8 5 - 2 C- -2 D -6 C- A+ F B- +4 B- B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 321 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 55% +8  96% 11 - 8 6 - 2 C+ +2 B- +4 C D B+ C -1 F B+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 312 @Loyola Maryland L 68 - 77 52% -8  8% 11 - 9 6 - 3 F+ -15 F -15 D F D+ C -0 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 319 Lafayette L 65 - 67 76% +1  62% 11 - 10 6 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -8 D- C- D- D -7 F B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 324 Bucknell L 59 - 60 77% +2  63% 11 - 11 6 - 5 D- -14 F -11 F+ D- D+ D+ -4 D+ F+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 166 @Navy L 73 - 82 22% -3  14% 11 - 12 6 - 6 D+ -6 B+ +7 B+ D+ D+ F -15 F C F
 Wed, Feb 11 306 @Lehigh L 82 - 90 49% -11  5% 11 - 13 6 - 7 D- -13 C +0 D+ C A- F -13 F C- B-
 Sat, Feb 14 341 Army W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 324 @Bucknell W 72 - 70 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 319 @Lafayette W 71 - 70 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 306 Lehigh W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 Boston University W 74 - 70 65%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -6 D+ -3 C D- C C- -2 D C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- C C- 37% 14% 49% B- C D D D- C D- B D+ C- D+ C- D+ D 42% 21% 37% C- D C- C+ C C+ F+ C F+
1.04 56% 36% 34% -1 +1 1.01 26% 0.9 .23 17% .25 76% .19 1.12 62% 40% 36% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.0 .32 18% .39 72% .18
Nov
3		 Wake Forest C- A D+ F C- 38% 6% 56% A- C+ D A+ B- D- C A+ B+ C F A+ A+ A 53% 12% 35% F B+ C- F F+ C F+ D+ F+
0.98 68% 33% 25% -4 +2 0.98 26% 1.3 .34 24% .31 89% .28 1.17 70% 14% 20% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 15% .37 79% .29
Nov
9		 Penn C- D+ A+ C- C+ 41% 9% 50% B+ B- D+ D D D+ A+ C- A- B- D+ A+ F C 31% 27% 42% C+ C A C B+ A+ F F F
1.09 57% 100% 32% +4 +2 1.13 27% 0.8 .22 17% .36 65% .23 1.01 60% 15% 45% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 23% .54 78% .42
Nov
12		 George Washington F A+ C+ F C 34% 19% 47% C C F C- F F+ F F F F C+ F F F 46% 6% 48% C- F F F F C- F D- F
0.88 75% 36% 26% 0 0 1.02 13% 1.0 .13 21% .13 50% .07 1.41 58% 67% 52% +15 +2 1.37 45% 1.4 .62 17% .53 79% .41
Nov
18		 Rutgers D+ F F B- F+ 39% 15% 46% B D- D- D+ D- A+ D+ B C- C D+ A+ C B- 44% 29% 27% D- C+ B+ F F C F F F
1.01 39% 22% 37% -8 +1 0.88 25% 0.9 .23 11% .22 79% .18 1.14 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.8 .53 16% .50 80% .40
Nov
28		 Maine C- C+ C B+ B 33% 17% 50% C- B- F F F A+ A D B+ C F F C+ F 41% 26% 33% C+ F D- A+ B- A+ F A+ F
1.11 63% 38% 38% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.8 .16 12% .41 67% .27 0.92 69% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 24% 0.7 .17 27% .60 52% .31
Nov
29		 Siena F D+ F F F 39% 32% 29% D F F+ D+ D- F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ 37% 39% 24% A- B+ D- A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.79 56% 23% 17% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.9 .21 27% .41 76% .31 0.85 43% 53% 22% -4 -3 0.89 35% 0.5 .18 29% .70 60% .42
Nov
30		 Longwood A- B+ D A- B 33% 12% 55% C B- D+ A+ B B A+ A+ A+ B C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 19% 36% D A+ B- A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45 0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52
Dec
3		 Drexel C+ D- A+ A B 37% 16% 47% B- B+ D F F A+ A+ F A- D F B+ F F 54% 19% 27% F+ F B A+ A+ D- C- A- C+
1.12 50% 50% 39% +3 0 1.08 26% 0.4 .10 9% .44 67% .30 1.09 68% 30% 43% +7 +1 1.19 26% 0.3 .09 16% .27 60% .16
Dec
6		 Maryland Eastern Shore B F A+ A+ B+ 47% 4% 49% A A- B- F D- B- F C+ F C- F D F F 45% 35% 20% B- F A+ D A+ A+ A A- A
1.25 44% 50% 50% +6 +3 1.19 35% 0.8 .26 14% .15 75% .11 0.96 83% 43% 50% +18 -1 1.35 11% 1.0 .11 30% .14 67% .09
Dec
18		 Virginia Commonwealth A D+ F A+ B+ 37% 11% 52% B B+ C- D- D+ A B+ A+ A+ F F D+ D F 43% 13% 44% C F+ F F F C- A F C
1.18 50% 17% 43% +2 +1 1.07 28% 0.8 .23 13% .36 86% .31 1.49 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 50% 1.5 .77 14% .30 94% .28
Dec
22		 Virginia F+ B+ F F D- 19% 23% 58% C- D- C- C+ C- B- F A+ F F F F D F 52% 4% 44% F F F F F C- D+ A+ B
0.80 60% 25% 23% -12 -2 0.75 24% 0.9 .22 16% .11 83% .09 1.49 72% 100% 38% +13 +3 1.33 52% 1.5 .78 14% .33 56% .18
Dec
31		 Loyola Maryland B B A+ A+ A 51% 18% 31% B A F A F+ B- F F F C- A F F F 38% 10% 52% D+ F+ F A+ B A+ F F F
1.25 68% 60% 41% +12 +1 1.29 19% 1.4 .27 13% .15 67% .10 1.03 44% 75% 41% +4 +1 1.12 38% 0.5 .21 28% .44 86% .37
Jan
3		 Boston University D F A+ A C 39% 20% 41% C C F F F D+ D- A+ C- B- C A+ B- A+ 27% 18% 55% B A+ D F F F D C D+
1.09 44% 67% 42% +5 0 1.13 14% 0.8 .11 14% .24 83% .20 1.05 58% 0% 33% -7 0 0.86 29% 1.3 .37 14% .33 71% .24
Jan
7		 Colgate D+ D- D+ A+ A- 57% 6% 36% A+ A F F F D- F F F C C A D+ B 50% 24% 26% F+ B- F A D+ C+ F A+ F
1.04 52% 33% 53% +6 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06 1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28
Jan
10		 Holy Cross F+ A A F F 37% 20% 43% C- F C- C C- C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 32% 34% 34% B F C+ F D+ D F B- F
1.03 74% 50% 9% -8 0 0.86 28% 1.1 .31 14% .43 88% .38 1.18 73% 69% 25% +11 -2 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .54 73% .39
Jan
12		 Navy C- B+ A+ F D 35% 6% 59% A+ C- B+ F F A+ F B- F+ A+ A- B A+ A+ 38% 23% 40% C A+ B+ A+ A A- F B- F
1.04 68% 67% 22% -5 +2 0.94 37% 0.5 .17 11% .16 78% .13 0.82 47% 33% 19% -14 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .19 22% .50 71% .35
Jan
18		 Army B C B+ B+ B- 30% 16% 53% C- C+ B A+ A+ F A B- A C- D+ F B D- 51% 8% 41% F+ D- F+ A- C D A F B-
1.24 62% 43% 39% +6 0 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 22% .43 76% .33 1.06 60% 50% 30% 0 +3 1.06 35% 0.8 .26 16% .17 89% .15
Jan
21		 Colgate D C+ F C+ D+ 45% 16% 39% B C- A- A+ A+ F D+ A+ C+ B- D C B C+ 30% 36% 34% A B- B- A- B+ B+ F A- F
1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25 0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28
Jan
24		 Holy Cross B- B- C+ D C- 49% 13% 38% B C D+ D D B+ D- A+ D+ C B C- F F 35% 26% 39% D+ F D+ A+ B+ A C- F D
1.18 65% 43% 30% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.0 .26 11% .21 83% .17 1.04 50% 42% 50% +8 -1 1.15 23% 0.6 .13 22% .28 86% .24
Jan
28		 Loyola Maryland F F F A F+ 43% 13% 45% B+ D F F F D+ D C+ D+ C A+ F A A- 39% 22% 39% B+ A- C+ F F D+ F F F
0.92 46% 29% 40% -2 +1 1.00 6% 0.0 .00 16% .26 75% .19 1.04 42% 45% 26% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.4 .37 16% .47 83% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lafayette F+ A+ F F D- 33% 23% 44% C- D- B- F+ C- D- C C C D D F D+ F 38% 13% 49% C- F F A+ B+ C+ F A+ C-
1.02 75% 27% 24% -3 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21 1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21
Feb
4		 Bucknell F F C D+ F 23% 11% 66% C+ F+ B+ F D- D+ F F F D+ A- F C- D+ 38% 18% 45% C D+ B F F+ A- F F F
1.00 45% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 39% 0.7 .27 19% .23 64% .15 1.01 47% 43% 33% -4 0 0.95 22% 1.7 .37 24% .38 88% .33
Feb
7		 Navy B+ A B B- B+ 21% 17% 62% C+ B+ B- F D+ D+ D F F+ F D+ F F F 45% 25% 30% C- F C+ D+ C F F B+ F
1.13 73% 44% 34% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 19% .21 64% .13 1.27 60% 55% 46% +10 0 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 14% .52 69% .36
Feb
11		 Lehigh C D+ F C+ D- 42% 10% 47% A- D+ D- A+ C A- C B- C+ F D F F F 34% 23% 43% C F B- F C- B- F B- F
1.11 52% 17% 36% -3 +2 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 12% .32 76% .25 1.21 63% 64% 55% +21 -1 1.43 18% 1.3 .23 20% .44 69% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 10.2 27.9 11.6 49.7 3rd
4th 3.2 16.8 3.1 23.2 4th
5th 0.1 8.6 4.1 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 1.2 5.9 0.3 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 1.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.4 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.6 5.4 18.9 31.3 31.3 12.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 12.5% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.5 10.7
10-8 31.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.4 3.6 27.3
9-9 31.3% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.1 3.4 27.8
8-10 18.9% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2 17.7
7-11 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 5.2
6-12 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.8 89.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 15.2 7.5 65.8 26.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2%
Lose Out 0.3%