North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#22
Expected Predictive Rating+20.8#11
Pace74.0#78
Improvement-2.3#320

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#33
First Shot+3.7#73
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#16
Layup/Dunks+7.4#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#269
Freethrows+2.6#56
Improvement-1.8#313

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#20
First Shot+4.9#44
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#59
Layups/Dunks+4.7#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
Freethrows+4.2#11
Improvement-0.6#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 7.1% 2.3%
Top 4 Seed 28.8% 30.8% 15.9%
Top 6 Seed 56.2% 58.7% 40.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.2% 92.3% 83.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.5% 91.7% 82.9%
Average Seed 5.9 5.8 6.7
.500 or above 99.2% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 85.5% 77.3%
Conference Champion 7.5% 7.9% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.4% 3.2% 4.6%
First Round89.4% 90.7% 81.4%
Second Round64.0% 65.9% 52.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.6% 30.0% 19.7%
Elite Eight11.0% 11.6% 6.9%
Final Four4.3% 4.6% 2.4%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 279 Central Arkansas W 94-54 98%     1 - 0 +30.8 +11.6 +16.4
  Fri, Nov 7 18 Kansas W 87-74 57%     2 - 0 +26.1 +21.6 +4.4
  Tue, Nov 11 288 Radford W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 +4.9 -1.7 +4.4
  Fri, Nov 14 350 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +28.5 +18.6 +9.9
  Tue, Nov 18 197 Navy W 73-61 96%     5 - 0 +6.7 -1.6 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 108 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 85%     6 - 0 +19.1 +13.4 +5.4
  Thu, Nov 27 12 Michigan St. L 58-74 37%     6 - 1 +2.5 +5.2 -5.2
  Tue, Dec 2 21 @Kentucky W 67-64 38%     7 - 1 +21.1 +9.6 +11.8
  Sun, Dec 7 86 Georgetown W 84-72 86%    
  Sat, Dec 13 274 South Carolina Upstate W 89-65 99%    
  Tue, Dec 16 117 East Tennessee St. W 83-68 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 24 Ohio St. W 79-78 51%    
  Mon, Dec 22 266 East Carolina W 89-65 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 101 Florida St. W 88-75 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 40 @SMU W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 50 Wake Forest W 82-75 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 85 @Stanford W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 76 @California W 79-75 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 58 Notre Dame W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 23 @Virginia L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 135 @Georgia Tech W 80-70 82%    
  Mon, Feb 2 60 Syracuse W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke L 72-77 34%    
  Tue, Feb 10 32 @Miami (FL) L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 95 Pittsburgh W 79-66 87%    
  Tue, Feb 17 36 @North Carolina St. L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 @Syracuse W 77-74 60%    
  Mon, Feb 23 13 Louisville L 81-82 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 67 Virginia Tech W 83-74 80%    
  Tue, Mar 3 33 Clemson W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 69-80 17%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.6 2.6 0.3 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.9 1.3 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.8 1.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.8 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.0 10.5 13.3 15.0 14.7 13.0 9.5 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.1% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 87.1% 2.1    1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
15-3 52.1% 2.7    1.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.8 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.5 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.0% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 4.3 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.7% 100.0% 7.3% 92.6% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 4.6 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.0% 99.5% 4.0% 95.5% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.3 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
10-8 13.3% 98.4% 2.4% 96.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.7 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.2 98.4%
9-9 10.5% 92.3% 1.8% 90.5% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.5 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 92.1%
8-10 7.0% 74.7% 1.2% 73.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.0 1.8 74.4%
7-11 4.5% 48.1% 0.4% 47.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.1 2.4 47.9%
6-12 2.5% 17.3% 0.5% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 16.8%
5-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.7%
4-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.2% 7.2% 83.9% 5.9 1.8 4.6 9.7 12.7 13.9 13.4 11.7 8.6 6.7 5.0 2.9 0.1 0.0 8.8 90.5%