Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.9#3
Expected Predictive Rating+24.6#5
Pace67.5#234
Improvement-1.0#266

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+6.4#32
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#11
Layup/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#37
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense+10.7#4
First Shot+11.1#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#214
Layups/Dunks+6.3#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#280
Freethrows+5.8#3
Improvement-0.9#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.6% 13.4% 7.8%
#1 Seed 41.8% 49.2% 34.6%
Top 2 Seed 73.6% 80.8% 66.6%
Top 4 Seed 94.8% 97.3% 92.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.7% 98.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.1 1.8 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.8% 99.4%
Conference Champion 61.0% 64.8% 57.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round97.1% 98.1% 96.0%
Sweet Sixteen75.1% 78.1% 72.3%
Elite Eight49.9% 53.9% 45.9%
Final Four29.6% 32.9% 26.4%
Championship Game16.4% 18.9% 13.9%
National Champion8.7% 10.2% 7.2%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 113 - 4
Quad 27 - 120 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 50 Texas W 75-60 85%     1 - 0 +25.7 +8.8 +17.7
  Sat, Nov 8 281 Western Carolina W 95-54 99%     2 - 0 +31.4 +10.6 +17.3
  Tue, Nov 11 342 @Army W 114-59 99%     3 - 0 +46.7 +26.3 +15.5
  Fri, Nov 14 196 Indiana St. W 100-62 99%     4 - 0 +32.6 +18.1 +11.3
  Tue, Nov 18 18 Kansas W 78-66 71%     5 - 0 +28.1 +19.5 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 347 Niagara W 100-42 99.7%    6 - 0 +43.4 +29.8 +18.4
  Sun, Nov 23 315 Howard W 93-56 99%     7 - 0 +25.5 +14.5 +10.7
  Thu, Nov 27 22 Arkansas W 80-71 75%     8 - 0 +24.0 +14.2 +9.9
  Tue, Dec 2 15 Florida W 67-66 75%     9 - 0 +15.8 +7.2 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 10 @Michigan St. L 69-70 49%    
  Tue, Dec 16 164 Lipscomb W 86-60 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 30 Texas Tech W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 134 Georgia Tech W 83-60 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 100 @Florida St. W 85-71 90%    
  Tue, Jan 6 14 @Louisville W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 40 SMU W 83-70 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 69 @California W 80-69 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 84 @Stanford W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 53 Wake Forest W 82-67 91%    
  Mon, Jan 26 14 Louisville W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 70 @Virginia Tech W 80-69 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 132 Boston College W 80-57 98%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 @North Carolina W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Feb 10 92 @Pittsburgh W 77-63 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 Clemson W 77-65 85%    
  Mon, Feb 16 61 Syracuse W 80-64 92%    
  Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 73-77 36%    
  Tue, Feb 24 56 @Notre Dame W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 26 Virginia W 77-67 83%    
  Mon, Mar 2 35 @North Carolina St. W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 21 North Carolina W 80-70 81%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.5 14.2 19.1 15.3 6.4 61.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.3 7.3 5.7 1.5 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.2 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.2 10.1 15.7 20.3 20.6 15.3 6.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.4    6.3 0.0
17-1 99.6% 15.3    14.6 0.6
16-2 92.7% 19.1    15.4 3.6 0.1
15-3 69.8% 14.2    7.5 5.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 35.1% 5.5    1.6 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 61.0% 61.0 45.6 12.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.4% 100.0% 63.8% 36.2% 1.2 5.3 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 15.3% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.3 11.5 3.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 20.6% 100.0% 50.6% 49.4% 1.5 12.4 7.3 0.9 0.1 100.0%
15-3 20.3% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.8 8.2 9.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.7% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 2.2 3.5 7.0 4.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-5 10.1% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 2.8 0.8 2.9 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.2% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.6 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.1% 99.8% 16.2% 83.6% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 1.4% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 5.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
9-9 0.6% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.3% 97.3% 2.7% 94.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3%
7-11 0.1% 91.7% 91.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.7%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 2.1 41.8 31.8 14.8 6.4 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.2 12.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.0 6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.3 16.7