Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.3 #3
Expected Predictive Rating +28.8 #3
Pace 68.7 #186
Improvement -2.6 #297

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 A+ A+ C+ A- A+
Defense #6 A+ A+ A+ A+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.35 #20 +7.3 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #362 1.02 #4 -4.1 #348
Three Pointers 49% #36 1.08 #92 +5.6 #29
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #8 +8.8 #8
Freethrows 21.9 #12 72% #195 15.8 #21
Second Chance 39.3% #11 1.23 #20 0.48 #5
Turnovers 15.9% #144
Total Offense +11.2 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #326 0.95 #10 +7.0 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #56 0.71 #110 -1.1 #272
Three Pointers 43% #127 0.91 #66 +1.4 #130
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #15 +7.2 #15
Freethrows 12.5 #8 70% #85 8.8 #11
Second Chance 23.6% #11 0.79 #3 0.19 #3
Turnovers 20.6% #18
Total Defense +11.1 #6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.1% #7 -2.0% #40
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.7% #21 -12.4% #16
Possession Length 15.2 #26 19.3 #363
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.13 #48
Improvement -0.5 #206 -2.1 #296

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.3% 16.8% 8.9%
#1 Seed 56.4% 57.7% 36.0%
Top 2 Seed 89.3% 90.1% 76.8%
Top 4 Seed 99.6% 99.7% 98.6%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 1.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 81.3% 82.7% 60.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.0% 99.1% 98.9%
Sweet Sixteen76.8% 77.1% 72.0%
Elite Eight50.1% 50.6% 42.8%
Final Four29.9% 30.2% 24.5%
Championship Game16.7% 17.0% 12.0%
National Champion9.2% 9.3% 6.6%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 114 - 4
Quad 26 - 020 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 46 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 38 Texas W 75 - 60 81% +5  1 - 0 +28 +9 B+ C C +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 289 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99% +23  2 - 0 +31 +8 D+ A+ B +19 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 333 @Army W 114 - 59 99% +23  3 - 0 +47 +24 A+ A+ C +18 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 188 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 99% +19  4 - 0 +33 +16 A+ A+ C- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 19 Kansas W 78 - 66 68% +3  5 - 0 +29 +19 A+ A+ B+ +11 A+ B- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 352 Niagara W 100 - 42 100% +30  6 - 0 +42 +28 A+ A+ B- +19 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 265 Howard W 93 - 56 99% +29  7 - 0 +28 +18 A+ B+ A- +10 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 20 Arkansas W 80 - 71 69% +1  8 - 0 +26 +13 B- A+ C +13 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 10 Florida W 67 - 66 68% +5  9 - 0 +18 +8 A+ B+ D +11 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 11 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 47% +0  10 - 0 +29 +14 B B A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 174 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 98% +5  11 - 0 +20 +9 B+ A+ F +8 B- A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 15 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 66% +4  11 - 1 +17 +15 A+ B- C+ +2 D+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 113 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 97% +0  12 - 1 1 - 0 +6 +12 A+ C+ C- -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 111 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 92% +0  13 - 1 2 - 0 +11 +21 A+ A+ C- -10 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 13 @Louisville W 84 - 73 54% -2  14 - 1 3 - 0 +32 +15 A+ F B +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 29 SMU W 82 - 75 85% +4  15 - 1 4 - 0 +18 +13 A+ C C +6 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 75 @California W 71 - 56 86% +3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +26 +10 C+ A+ B +17 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 77 @Stanford W 80 - 50 86% +15  17 - 1 6 - 0 +41 +22 A+ A+ A+ +22 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 63 Wake Forest W 84 - 67 94%
 Mon, Jan 26 13 Louisville W 82 - 75 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 58 @Virginia Tech W 79 - 70 81%
 Tue, Feb 3 134 Boston College W 81 - 57 99%
 Sat, Feb 7 31 @North Carolina W 80 - 75 69%
 Tue, Feb 10 91 @Pittsburgh W 79 - 66 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Clemson W 74 - 63 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 67 Syracuse W 83 - 66 95%
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 78 - 81 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 84 @Notre Dame W 77 - 65 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 16 Virginia W 76 - 69 76%
 Mon, Mar 2 26 @North Carolina St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 31 North Carolina W 83 - 72 85%
Totals 27 - 4 16 - 2 +22 +11 A+ A+ C+ +11 A+ A+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.0 12.9 26.3 26.0 12.9 81.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.1 5.8 1.4 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.3 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.6 9.6 19.0 27.7 26.0 12.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 12.9    12.9
17-1 100.0% 26.0    25.3 0.7
16-2 95.0% 26.3    20.2 5.9 0.2
15-3 68.0% 12.9    6.2 5.6 1.1 0.1
14-4 30.9% 3.0    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 81.3% 81.3 65.2 13.6 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 12.9% 100.0% 53.9% 46.1% 1.2 11.0 1.9 0.0 100.0%
17-1 26.0% 100.0% 48.8% 51.2% 1.3 19.3 6.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 27.7% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.5 16.1 10.4 1.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 19.0% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.8 7.6 8.7 2.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.6% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 2.2 2.1 4.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.6% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 2.7 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.0% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-7 0.2% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 88.7 11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.4 16.6