Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#5
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#71
Pace70.4#146
Improvement+0.3#141

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#11
First Shot+8.3#19
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks+3.9#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#29
Freethrows+0.9#144
Improvement-0.8#302

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#3
First Shot+9.2#6
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#139
Layups/Dunks+3.0#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement+1.2#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.9% 9.3% 4.2%
#1 Seed 26.5% 33.5% 18.6%
Top 2 Seed 47.4% 57.0% 36.4%
Top 4 Seed 73.3% 81.5% 64.0%
Top 6 Seed 86.3% 91.9% 79.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 99.0% 95.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 98.4% 93.8%
Average Seed 3.3 2.8 3.9
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.4% 98.5%
Conference Champion 51.1% 56.5% 45.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.4% 1.5%
First Round97.2% 98.9% 95.3%
Second Round87.3% 91.3% 82.8%
Sweet Sixteen61.7% 67.3% 55.3%
Elite Eight38.7% 43.9% 32.8%
Final Four22.8% 26.6% 18.4%
Championship Game12.9% 15.6% 9.7%
National Champion7.0% 8.9% 4.9%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 36 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 236   Maine W 96-62 98%     1 - 0 +27.2 +18.4 +7.2
  Nov 08, 2024 293   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +32.1 +21.6 +9.9
  Nov 12, 2024 10   Kentucky L 72-77 59%     2 - 1 +11.9 +1.5 +10.7
  Nov 16, 2024 206   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +45.8 +15.9 +34.5
  Nov 22, 2024 13   @ Arizona W 79-78 53%    
  Nov 26, 2024 6   Kansas W 75-74 52%    
  Nov 29, 2024 135   Seattle W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 3   Auburn W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 08, 2024 46   @ Louisville W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 10, 2024 308   Incarnate Word W 90-59 99.7%   
  Dec 17, 2024 92   George Mason W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 105   @ Georgia Tech W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 31, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 81-62 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 66   @ SMU W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 07, 2025 23   Pittsburgh W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 53   Notre Dame W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 14, 2025 38   Miami (FL) W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ Boston College W 79-64 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 75   @ Wake Forest W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 27, 2025 52   North Carolina St. W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   North Carolina W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 93   @ Syracuse W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 49   @ Clemson W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 102   California W 82-64 94%    
  Feb 15, 2025 76   Stanford W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 17, 2025 58   @ Virginia W 65-58 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 31   Illinois W 82-75 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 38   @ Miami (FL) W 78-73 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 81   Florida St. W 82-67 91%    
  Mar 03, 2025 75   Wake Forest W 81-66 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   @ North Carolina L 79-80 46%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.1 7.1 12.8 14.2 10.5 4.2 51.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.0 7.5 4.2 1.1 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.2 9.3 12.8 16.2 17.1 15.3 10.5 4.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
19-1 99.9% 10.5    10.1 0.4
18-2 92.8% 14.2    12.1 2.1 0.1
17-3 74.7% 12.8    8.4 3.9 0.4 0.0
16-4 44.0% 7.1    3.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 16.3% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.1% 51.1 38.3 10.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.2% 100.0% 66.1% 33.9% 1.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
19-1 10.5% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 1.3 7.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.3% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.6 8.1 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.1% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 2.2 5.2 6.2 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.2% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 3.0 1.9 4.3 4.8 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.8% 99.7% 27.8% 71.9% 4.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.4 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 9.3% 99.5% 23.7% 75.8% 5.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 6.2% 96.8% 14.2% 82.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 96.2%
12-8 4.0% 90.3% 10.2% 80.2% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 89.2%
11-9 2.3% 78.7% 6.2% 72.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 77.3%
10-10 1.1% 56.0% 4.1% 51.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 54.1%
9-11 0.6% 30.4% 2.5% 27.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 28.6%
8-12 0.3% 13.9% 3.7% 10.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.6%
7-13 0.1% 3.5% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 3.5%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.5% 36.4% 61.2% 3.3 26.5 20.8 14.6 11.3 7.6 5.4 4.2 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.1 93.0 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 9.3 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 13.6 1.5