Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.8#1
Expected Predictive Rating+22.6#2
Pace64.9#270
Improvement+0.4#162

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#4
First Shot+10.2#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#53
Layup/Dunks+4.4#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#30
Freethrows+1.4#93
Improvement+2.6#55

Defense
Total Defense+11.3#3
First Shot+8.5#10
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#12
Layups/Dunks+7.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-2.2#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.4% 17.6% 8.6%
#1 Seed 66.4% 68.9% 50.6%
Top 2 Seed 93.7% 95.0% 85.6%
Top 4 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.4 1.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.8% 96.7% 83.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.4% 98.7%
Sweet Sixteen84.4% 85.0% 80.6%
Elite Eight64.8% 65.8% 58.5%
Final Four45.4% 46.5% 38.0%
Championship Game30.8% 31.8% 24.7%
National Champion19.9% 20.6% 15.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 08 - 3
Quad 26 - 014 - 4
Quad 310 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 202   Maine W 96-62 99%     1 - 0 +29.3 +19.0 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 305   Army W 100-58 99.5%    2 - 0 +31.3 +20.6 +10.2
  Nov 12, 2024 15   Kentucky L 72-77 75%     2 - 1 +11.6 -1.3 +13.2
  Nov 16, 2024 130   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +50.2 +17.8 +36.9
  Nov 22, 2024 13   @ Arizona W 69-55 65%     4 - 1 +33.7 +7.8 +26.4
  Nov 26, 2024 6   Kansas L 72-75 66%     4 - 2 +16.5 +12.8 +3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 150   Seattle W 70-48 98%     5 - 2 +20.2 -0.7 +21.6
  Dec 04, 2024 2   Auburn W 84-78 63%     6 - 2 +26.3 +27.3 -0.3
  Dec 08, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 76-65 76%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +27.4 +13.4 +14.5
  Dec 10, 2024 303   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99.5%    8 - 2 +15.3 +0.8 +17.9
  Dec 17, 2024 86   George Mason W 68-47 96%     9 - 2 +24.8 +8.0 +19.1
  Dec 21, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech W 82-56 94%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +32.5 +21.1 +13.9
  Dec 31, 2024 137   Virginia Tech W 88-65 98%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +21.9 +21.9 +2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 37   @ SMU W 89-62 80%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +42.0 +28.2 +15.8
  Jan 07, 2025 40   Pittsburgh W 76-47 91%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +38.0 +12.2 +28.2
  Jan 11, 2025 77   Notre Dame W 86-78 95%     14 - 2 6 - 0 +12.5 +20.3 -7.1
  Jan 14, 2025 155   Miami (FL) W 89-54 98%     15 - 2 7 - 0 +32.8 +19.5 +17.1
  Jan 18, 2025 195   @ Boston College W 88-63 97%     16 - 2 8 - 0 +26.2 +19.7 +7.8
  Jan 25, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 27, 2025 93   North Carolina St. W 79-59 98%    
  Feb 01, 2025 26   North Carolina W 82-69 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   @ Clemson W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 118   California W 86-62 99%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   Stanford W 83-63 97%    
  Feb 17, 2025 107   @ Virginia W 70-52 94%    
  Feb 22, 2025 9   Illinois W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 155   @ Miami (FL) W 86-66 97%    
  Mar 01, 2025 58   Florida St. W 82-65 94%    
  Mar 03, 2025 59   Wake Forest W 77-60 95%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   @ North Carolina W 79-72 75%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 5.0 18.0 36.2 35.0 94.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.3 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 7.1 19.4 36.2 35.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 35.0    35.0
19-1 100.0% 36.2    34.3 1.9 0.0
18-2 93.0% 18.0    13.7 4.0 0.3
17-3 69.8% 5.0    2.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
16-4 32.8% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 11.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 94.8% 94.8 85.5 8.2 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 35.0% 100.0% 72.7% 27.3% 1.2 27.8 6.8 0.3 100.0%
19-1 36.2% 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 1.3 25.2 9.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 19.4% 100.0% 64.3% 35.7% 1.6 10.4 6.8 1.8 0.3 100.0%
17-3 7.1% 100.0% 60.8% 39.2% 1.9 2.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.8% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 2.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 1.4 66.4 27.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.7% 100.0% 1.2 83.7 16.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 100.0% 1.3 73.4 24.7 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 1.2 79.5 18.9 1.6