Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
154 Quinnipiac 23.3%   15   5 - 3 1 - 0 21 - 9 15 - 5 0.0      -0.8 185 +0.8 145 77.3 31 +7.0 87 +16.8 1
156 Siena 21.4%   8 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 -0.3      -1.1 197 +0.9 142 64.6 307 +3.2 127 +0.8 6
158 Marist 21.9%   4 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 -0.4      -6.5 336 +6.1 36 65.0 298 -1.4 194 +4.2 4
176 Iona 16.3%   6 - 3 0 - 1 20 - 11 13 - 7 -1.4      -0.1 164 -1.3 207 77.6 30 +0.7 158 -18.2 9
256 Sacred Heart 6.0%   2 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 8 -5.2      +0.4 154 -5.6 343 74.5 63 -5.2 246 +10.2 2
283 Merrimack 3.1%   4 - 6 1 - 0 13 - 18 10 - 10 -6.6      -4.3 288 -2.3 241 63.4 325 -3.7 227 +1.6 5
290 Fairfield 2.4%   5 - 4 0 - 1 15 - 15 9 - 11 -7.2      -3.9 274 -3.3 281 70.1 168 -3.7 226 -20.4 12
304 Mount St. Mary's 1.7%   2 - 8 0 - 2 11 - 19 8 - 12 -8.0      -4.4 291 -3.6 286 68.3 216 -11.8 325 -20.3 11
308 Manhattan 1.9%   3 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 11 -8.2      -0.7 181 -7.5 357 68.6 205 -8.6 295 +5.0 3
326 St. Peter's 1.0%   3 - 4 1 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -9.7      -6.0 329 -3.7 293 63.6 322 -9.4 300 -1.0 7
336 Rider 0.6%   0 - 6 0 - 1 7 - 21 7 - 13 -10.6      -6.7 341 -3.9 310 67.1 250 -23.6 365 -18.8 10
342 Niagara 0.3%   2 - 6 0 - 1 9 - 20 6 - 14 -11.4      -7.4 348 -4.0 313 63.3 328 -12.6 332 -12.5 8
355 Canisius 0.1%   3 - 5 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 15 -13.2      -8.1 355 -5.1 337 61.8 354 -9.5 301 -21.9 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 304 Mount St. Mary's 80 256 Sacred Heart 87   
Thu, Dec 4 283 Merrimack 68 336 Rider 66   
Fri, Dec 5 176 Iona 68 154 Quinnipiac 89   
Fri, Dec 5 290 Fairfield 66 308 Manhattan 70   
Fri, Dec 5 158 Marist 64 304 Mount St. Mary's 56   
Fri, Dec 5 355 Canisius 57 326 St. Peter's 69   
Fri, Dec 5 342 Niagara 54 156 Siena 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 176 Iona 85 256 Sacred Heart 84 53%   
Sun, Dec 7 290 Fairfield 68 283 Merrimack 71 64%   
Sun, Dec 7 308 Manhattan 63 158 Marist 74 84%   
Sun, Dec 7 342 Niagara 62 326 St. Peter's 67 67%   
Sun, Dec 7 154 Quinnipiac 81 336 Rider 67 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 355 Canisius 57 156 Siena 73 92%   
Tue, Dec 9 316 Bucknell 70 336 Rider 71 54%   
Wed, Dec 10 283 Merrimack 64 250 Princeton 69 67%   
Wed, Dec 10 297 Bryant 71 176 Iona 80 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Quinnipiac 2.5 37.8 24.3 15.6 9.9 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 2.8 30.3 23.6 17.1 12.2 7.5 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marist 3.1 28.9 20.2 16.5 12.5 8.6 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1
Iona 3.7 14.9 19.5 19.8 17.2 11.2 7.0 4.3 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Sacred Heart 5.2 6.7 10.0 12.4 14.7 15.7 12.1 9.3 7.2 5.0 3.2 1.9 1.2 0.4
Merrimack 6.8 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.9 11.7 13.3 13.4 12.0 10.2 8.1 5.7 3.1 1.3
Fairfield 7.6 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.5 9.9 12.3 12.8 13.1 12.2 10.0 7.6 5.3 2.9
Mount St. Mary's 8.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.0 11.3 12.9 13.2 12.6 11.5 9.5 6.9 4.2
Manhattan 7.3 1.4 2.8 5.2 7.3 10.5 12.7 13.5 12.4 11.0 9.1 7.1 4.7 2.5
St. Peter's 8.6 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.3 9.0 10.2 11.5 12.9 13.7 12.4 10.6 5.3
Rider 9.7 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.2 9.4 11.3 13.7 15.8 16.6 13.0
Niagara 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.0 6.7 8.6 10.7 13.3 16.2 16.9 16.4
Canisius 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.1 7.4 10.4 15.1 21.5 33.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.5 13.3 16.0 16.1 13.7 8.6 4.2 1.0
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 6.2 8.9 12.0 14.8 15.8 14.3 10.9 6.7 2.9 0.7
Marist 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.7 12.1 13.9 14.2 12.8 10.1 6.4 2.8 0.7
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 6.3 9.3 12.5 15.0 15.7 14.0 10.2 6.2 2.4 0.6
Sacred Heart 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.0 6.8 9.4 11.4 13.3 13.8 12.6 10.0 7.0 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.8 9.6 12.1 13.6 14.1 11.9 10.0 7.1 4.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.7 11.8 13.6 14.1 13.0 10.9 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.1 10.2 12.9 14.5 14.1 12.1 9.3 6.4 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 5.0 8.0 10.9 12.9 14.0 13.1 11.3 8.5 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.4 9.9 12.4 14.0 13.9 12.2 9.5 7.1 4.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rider 7 - 13 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.2 10.5 13.3 14.1 13.7 11.5 9.1 6.4 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 4.8 8.2 11.6 14.1 14.2 13.0 11.2 8.2 5.6 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 1.5 5.1 9.5 14.0 16.2 15.2 13.0 10.0 6.9 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Quinnipiac 37.8% 25.8 9.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Siena 30.3% 19.7 8.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marist 28.9% 19.6 7.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iona 14.9% 8.1 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 6.7% 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
St. Peter's 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rider 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Quinnipiac 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.1 8.6 5.4 1.0 76.7 0.0%
Siena 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 4.0 7.8 6.8 2.0 78.6 0.0%
Marist 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 7.2 6.8 3.0 78.1 0.0%
Iona 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.2 6.3 2.7 83.7 0.0%
Sacred Heart 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 94.0 0.0%
Merrimack 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 96.9 0.0%
Fairfield 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 97.6 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.3 0.0%
Manhattan 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 98.1 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Rider 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Niagara 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Quinnipiac 23.3% 0.2% 23.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 21.4% 0.5% 21.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 21.9% 1.0% 21.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 16.3% 0.7% 16.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 6.0% 1.9% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 3.1% 1.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.9% 0.9 5.1 94.9
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0