Preseason Rankings
Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#237
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#341
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#342
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 19.4% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 60.0% 85.2% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 85.3% 67.7%
Conference Champion 13.4% 26.1% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 0.7% 3.7%
First Four1.6% 1.0% 1.6%
First Round10.3% 20.0% 9.9%
Second Round0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 414 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 50   @ Xavier L 56-74 4%    
  Nov 09, 2025 230   @ Dartmouth L 63-67 37%    
  Nov 16, 2025 172   Harvard L 61-62 48%    
  Nov 21, 2025 353   Army W 69-58 85%    
  Nov 25, 2025 306   Lehigh W 66-59 73%    
  Dec 05, 2025 269   Mount St. Mary's W 65-60 65%    
  Dec 07, 2025 260   Manhattan W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 13, 2025 250   @ Bryant L 67-70 41%    
  Dec 16, 2025 83   @ Georgia Tech L 57-71 12%    
  Dec 21, 2025 288   Stony Brook W 64-58 69%    
  Dec 29, 2025 215   @ Quinnipiac L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 02, 2026 297   @ St. Peter's W 57-56 50%    
  Jan 04, 2026 199   Iona W 64-63 53%    
  Jan 09, 2026 254   @ Sacred Heart L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 11, 2026 313   @ Rider W 61-60 55%    
  Jan 17, 2026 319   Fairfield W 66-58 75%    
  Jan 19, 2026 257   Merrimack W 60-56 63%    
  Jan 22, 2026 222   @ Siena L 61-65 38%    
  Jan 24, 2026 215   Quinnipiac W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 30, 2026 346   @ Canisius W 65-60 65%    
  Feb 01, 2026 335   @ Niagara W 62-59 60%    
  Feb 05, 2026 313   Rider W 64-57 72%    
  Feb 07, 2026 319   @ Fairfield W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 12, 2026 257   @ Merrimack L 57-59 42%    
  Feb 15, 2026 222   Siena W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 20, 2026 260   @ Manhattan L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 22, 2026 254   Sacred Heart W 69-65 62%    
  Mar 01, 2026 297   St. Peter's W 60-54 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 13.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.6 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.1 1.0 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.3 0.8 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.6 1.1 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.4 0.2 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.1 8.3 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.7 8.9 6.8 5.7 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.6% 1.1    1.0 0.0
18-2 96.3% 2.1    1.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 85.3% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 59.4% 3.4    2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.8% 2.2    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.9% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.9 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 53.7% 53.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.1% 50.9% 50.9% 12.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.2% 40.6% 40.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
17-3 3.8% 34.4% 34.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5
16-4 5.7% 26.9% 26.9% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 4.2
15-5 6.8% 22.5% 22.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 5.3
14-6 8.9% 16.1% 16.1% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 7.5
13-7 9.7% 11.5% 11.5% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 8.6
12-8 10.1% 8.2% 8.2% 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.3
11-9 10.1% 4.6% 4.6% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.6
10-10 9.8% 2.5% 2.5% 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.6
9-11 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
8-12 7.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.5 0.0 0.1 7.0
7-13 5.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-14 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 2.6% 2.6
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 3.3 89.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.0%