Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #237
Pace 68.4 #198
Improvement -0.9 #234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #199 D C B- D- C-
Defense #319 D- C D C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.02 #329 -3.7 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #122 0.76 #166 +1.1 #115
Three Pointers 40% #197 0.95 #260 -1.7 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #298 -4.3 #298
Freethrows 14.4 #328 71% #217 10.3 #322
Second Chance 32.6% #127 0.99 #257 0.32 #168
Turnovers 15.0% #83
Total Offense -1.2 #199

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #8 1.20 #247 -6.0 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #323 0.75 #154 +1.9 #48
Three Pointers 38% #276 1.13 #317 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #311 -4.4 #311
Freethrows 17.0 #152 74% #293 12.7 #173
Second Chance 29.4% #129 1.05 #185 0.31 #147
Turnovers 14.5% #298
Total Defense -5.1 #319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #248 2.5% #357
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #299 5.8% #286
Possession Length 17.4 #176 17.3 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.17 #173
Improvement +2.0 #77 -2.9 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 61.4% 67.7% 37.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.4% 31.9% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 2.9%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
First Round2.2% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 72 - 9
Quad 415 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 13% +2  0 - 1 -2 -3 F F A+ +1 B- A F
 Sat, Nov 8 336 @NJIT W 74 - 53 58% +6  1 - 1 +13 -6 F B- F +17 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 10 56 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  1 - 2 -10 -2 C D- D -9 A D F
 Fri, Nov 14 339 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 78% +2  2 - 2 -12 -10 F D A -3 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 324 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 74% +4  3 - 2 -10 +3 F A A+ -13 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 278 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 40% +12  4 - 2 +10 +21 A+ B- A+ -11 C F B
 Wed, Nov 26 180 Columbia L 77 - 106 43% -18  4 - 3 -33 -0 D C+ D -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 323 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 74% +0  5 - 3 -9 +1 C+ C D- -10 C- A F
 Fri, Dec 5 327 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 54% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -11 -15 F F F +4 C A A+
 Sun, Dec 7 208 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 27% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -11 -3 C F D -9 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 202 Monmouth W 73 - 65 48% +0  6 - 5 +2 +7 C+ A- A- -4 D A- D+
 Thu, Dec 18 277 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 40% +14  7 - 5 +10 +13 A C+ C- -1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 220 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 51% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -11 -5 F C+ B- -6 C A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 344 @Canisius L 81 - 85 60% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -13 +10 F B B -23 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 352 @Niagara W 83 - 75 63% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -2 +19 B- C+ A+ -20 F C D-
 Fri, Jan 9 354 Rider W 68 - 62 82% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -3 F A+ A- -6 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 327 Manhattan W 98 - 62 75% +20  10 - 7 3 - 4 +23 +13 A+ D B +8 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Marist L 67 - 82 19% -13  10 - 8 3 - 5 -12 +5 F A- A+ -18 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 169 @Siena L 77 - 85 22% -8  10 - 9 3 - 6 -6 +12 C+ A+ B+ -19 F B+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 352 Niagara W 62 - 61 82% +3  11 - 9 4 - 6 -15 -13 F D+ F -2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 344 Canisius W 75 - 66 80%
 Fri, Jan 30 227 @Iona L 75 - 80 31%
 Sun, Feb 1 175 Quinnipiac L 77 - 79 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 270 @Sacred Heart L 78 - 81 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 160 Marist L 67 - 70 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 220 @St. Peter's L 68 - 74 30%
 Fri, Feb 20 270 Sacred Heart W 81 - 78 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 175 @Quinnipiac L 74 - 82 23%
 Fri, Feb 27 169 Siena L 71 - 73 42%
 Sun, Mar 1 288 Mount St. Mary's W 76 - 72 65%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 12 -6 -1 D C B- -5 D- C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 3rd
4th 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.0 0.4 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.6 8.3 1.7 0.0 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.9 10.7 2.7 0.1 21.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 6.6 10.7 3.7 0.1 21.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.1 7.4 3.3 0.3 15.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.9 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.4 2.4 8.9 16.8 22.1 22.0 15.6 8.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.6% 14.0% 14.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 3.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.7
11-9 8.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.5
10-10 15.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 15.0
9-11 22.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.1 0.4 21.5
8-12 22.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 21.7
7-13 16.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 16.6
6-14 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.9
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%