Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#294
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Pace70.3#167
Improvement-3.8#357

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#276
First Shot-5.2#314
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#117
Layup/Dunks-5.1#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#237
Freethrows-1.2#246
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#287
First Shot-3.7#301
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#178
Layups/Dunks-7.0#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#95
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement-3.6#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 43.3% 59.9% 34.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 55.6% 29.9%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 2.5% 8.3%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round1.6% 2.5% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 414 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 96 @Penn St. L 68-76 8%     0 - 1 +0.1 -2.2 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 351 @NJIT W 74-53 57%     1 - 1 +11.7 -5.6 +15.9
  Mon, Nov 10 76 @Seton Hall L 59-82 6%     1 - 2 -12.5 -5.8 -7.2
  Fri, Nov 14 338 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 74%     2 - 2 -12.1 -11.3 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 16 319 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 67%     3 - 2 -9.1 +3.7 -12.8
  Sat, Nov 22 321 @Le Moyne W 97-83 45%     4 - 2 +7.8 +16.5 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 26 140 Columbia L 77-106 28%     4 - 3 -30.5 +1.2 -31.3
  Sun, Nov 30 344 New Hampshire W 72-68 75%     5 - 3 -10.4 -0.1 -10.0
  Fri, Dec 5 310 @Manhattan L 66-70 41%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.2 -14.8 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 7 277 @Merrimack L 68-72 34%    
  Sun, Dec 14 205 Monmouth L 72-74 44%    
  Thu, Dec 18 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 66-72 29%    
  Mon, Dec 29 329 St. Peter's W 72-67 69%    
  Fri, Jan 2 353 @Canisius W 70-67 59%    
  Sun, Jan 4 347 @Niagara W 69-68 53%    
  Fri, Jan 9 335 Rider W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 310 Manhattan W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 159 @Marist L 60-70 18%    
  Mon, Jan 19 161 @Siena L 65-75 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 347 Niagara W 72-65 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 353 Canisius W 73-64 78%    
  Fri, Jan 30 174 @Iona L 74-83 20%    
  Sun, Feb 1 154 Quinnipiac L 74-79 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 255 @Sacred Heart L 77-82 32%    
  Sat, Feb 7 159 Marist L 63-67 36%    
  Sun, Feb 15 329 @St. Peter's L 69-70 47%    
  Fri, Feb 20 255 Sacred Heart W 80-79 53%    
  Sun, Feb 22 154 @Quinnipiac L 71-82 17%    
  Fri, Feb 27 161 Siena L 68-72 36%    
  Sun, Mar 1 307 Mount St. Mary's W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 5.4 4.4 1.3 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.1 1.3 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 5.0 1.6 0.1 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.3 1.5 0.1 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 6.2 9.3 12.1 13.8 14.3 12.7 10.2 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 60.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 26.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.2% 20.4% 20.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 7.9% 7.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.4% 10.3% 10.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
13-7 4.5% 8.9% 8.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.1
12-8 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
11-9 10.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 9.9
10-10 12.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.5
9-11 14.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.1
8-12 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-13 12.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.0
6-14 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.2% 6.2
4-16 3.3% 3.3
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.9 0.0%