UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#102
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#59
Pace67.4#241
Improvement+0.5#146

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#77
First Shot+4.8#57
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#202
Layup/Dunks+3.7#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#44
Freethrows-2.0#292
Improvement+2.2#32

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot+5.9#32
After Offensive Rebounds-5.4#360
Layups/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#253
Freethrows+3.0#32
Improvement-1.7#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.9% 32.5% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 12.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 98.2% 92.0%
Conference Champion 40.3% 44.6% 23.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round30.8% 32.5% 24.2%
Second Round4.8% 5.3% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 79.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 411 - 6
Quad 414 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 282 Houston Christian W 78-60 90%     1 - 0 +8.4 +0.1 +8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 179 @Fresno St. W 78-73 62%     2 - 0 +6.6 +5.8 +0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 187 Idaho W 75-67 82%     3 - 0 +3.0 -1.7 +4.7
  Mon, Nov 24 157 Temple W 91-76 68%     4 - 0 +14.9 +16.2 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 124 Bradley W 87-77 57%     5 - 0 +12.9 +16.6 -3.7
  Wed, Nov 26 129 Towson W 87-73 59%     6 - 0 +16.4 +23.5 -5.7
  Tue, Dec 2 105 @Nevada L 70-76 40%     6 - 1 +1.3 +6.8 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 6 286 @Long Beach St. W 77-68 80%    
  Sun, Dec 14 172 Tulane W 79-73 71%    
  Tue, Dec 16 143 @Loyola Marymount W 71-70 52%    
  Fri, Dec 19 262 San Diego W 85-71 89%    
  Thu, Jan 1 243 @Cal Poly W 85-79 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 108 Hawaii W 76-72 63%    
  Thu, Jan 8 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 90-74 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 271 @UC Riverside W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 253 Cal St. Northridge W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-70 78%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 @UC Davis W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 125 UC Irvine W 72-67 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 148 UC Santa Barbara W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 83-76 73%    
  Thu, Feb 5 286 Long Beach St. W 80-65 90%    
  Sun, Feb 8 108 @Hawaii L 73-75 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 168 UC Davis W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 271 UC Riverside W 81-67 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 125 @UC Irvine L 69-70 46%    
  Thu, Feb 26 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 243 Cal Poly W 88-76 86%    
  Thu, Mar 5 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 87-77 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 148 @UC Santa Barbara W 75-74 54%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.8 8.8 11.1 8.9 4.3 1.2 40.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.0 8.5 5.7 2.0 0.2 25.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.4 1.8 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.8 7.5 10.4 12.9 15.7 15.0 13.1 9.1 4.3 1.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.2 0.1
18-2 97.6% 8.9    8.1 0.8
17-3 84.7% 11.1    8.4 2.6 0.1
16-4 58.8% 8.8    5.1 3.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 30.3% 4.8    1.8 2.1 0.8 0.1
14-6 9.1% 1.2    0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.3% 40.3 29.0 9.3 1.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 64.9% 61.5% 3.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8.8%
19-1 4.3% 58.5% 57.4% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.8 2.4%
18-2 9.1% 50.5% 50.5% 11.8 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.5
17-3 13.1% 46.7% 46.7% 12.2 0.6 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.0
16-4 15.0% 38.5% 38.5% 12.4 0.2 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2
15-5 15.7% 30.4% 30.4% 12.7 0.0 1.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.0
14-6 12.9% 23.5% 23.5% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.0 9.9
13-7 10.4% 17.4% 17.4% 13.2 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 8.6
12-8 7.5% 11.5% 11.5% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.6
11-9 4.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.3
10-10 3.0% 5.3% 5.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
9-11 1.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-12 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 13.8 9.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 69.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 8.5 1.4 2.1 7.0 12.0 15.5 7.0 16.9 12.0 21.8 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 21.1% 10.5 10.5 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 7.1% 11.0 7.1