UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#83
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#39
Pace71.4#128
Improvement+1.4#97

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#82
First Shot+5.9#41
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#300
Layup/Dunks+6.4#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#41
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement-0.2#197

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#92
First Shot+4.7#49
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#314
Layups/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#275
Freethrows+3.4#21
Improvement+1.6#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 45.3% 37.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.5% 98.9%
Conference Champion 60.2% 61.0% 50.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round44.6% 45.1% 37.6%
Second Round8.7% 8.9% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 311 - 213 - 5
Quad 413 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 279 Houston Christian W 78-60 93%     1 - 0 +8.7 -0.9 +9.7
  Wed, Nov 12 184 @Fresno St. W 78-73 70%     2 - 0 +6.3 +5.0 +1.3
  Sat, Nov 15 177 Idaho W 75-67 85%     3 - 0 +3.8 -0.8 +4.7
  Mon, Nov 24 151 Temple W 91-76 73%     4 - 0 +15.5 +17.0 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 108 Bradley W 87-77 61%     5 - 0 +13.9 +17.5 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 128 Towson W 87-73 68%     6 - 0 +16.2 +24.3 -6.8
  Tue, Dec 2 89 @Nevada L 70-76 41%     6 - 1 +3.2 +6.6 -3.9
  Sat, Dec 6 275 @Long Beach St. W 80-74 83%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +2.8 +6.8 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 13 194 Tulane W 93-67 80%     8 - 1 +23.8 +8.3 +12.9
  Tue, Dec 16 123 @Loyola Marymount W 67-57 56%     9 - 1 +15.4 -0.4 +15.6
  Fri, Dec 19 260 San Diego W 87-72 93%    
  Thu, Jan 1 257 @Cal Poly W 89-80 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 109 Hawaii W 75-69 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 90-75 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 272 @UC Riverside W 81-71 82%    
  Thu, Jan 15 212 Cal St. Northridge W 88-75 89%    
  Sat, Jan 17 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-70 87%    
  Thu, Jan 22 176 @UC Davis W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 131 UC Irvine W 76-68 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 150 UC Santa Barbara W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 212 @Cal St. Northridge W 85-78 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 275 Long Beach St. W 84-68 93%    
  Sun, Feb 8 109 @Hawaii W 73-72 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 176 UC Davis W 82-71 84%    
  Sat, Feb 14 272 UC Riverside W 84-68 92%    
  Sat, Feb 21 131 @UC Irvine W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-67 95%    
  Sat, Feb 28 257 Cal Poly W 92-77 91%    
  Thu, Mar 5 242 @Cal St. Fullerton W 87-78 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 150 @UC Santa Barbara W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.1 11.1 16.1 14.4 9.0 3.0 60.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 7.4 5.7 2.1 0.3 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 3.3 1.6 0.3 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.6 10.3 14.2 17.1 18.3 14.7 9.0 3.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
19-1 100.0% 9.0    8.9 0.1
18-2 98.0% 14.4    13.5 1.0
17-3 88.3% 16.1    13.0 3.0 0.1
16-4 65.1% 11.1    6.8 3.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 36.3% 5.1    2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0
14-6 12.4% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 60.2% 60.2 47.6 10.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.0% 74.7% 69.8% 4.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.8 16.0%
19-1 9.0% 65.0% 63.4% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.5 1.9 0.0 3.1 4.6%
18-2 14.7% 58.3% 57.9% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 3.0 5.1 0.4 6.1 0.8%
17-3 18.3% 51.5% 51.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 1.5 6.6 1.2 0.0 8.9 0.2%
16-4 17.1% 46.2% 46.2% 0.1% 12.2 0.6 5.4 1.9 0.1 9.2 0.1%
15-5 14.2% 37.8% 37.8% 12.4 0.1 3.2 1.9 0.1 8.8
14-6 10.3% 31.1% 31.1% 12.6 0.0 1.4 1.5 0.2 7.1
13-7 6.6% 20.9% 20.9% 12.8 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2
12-8 3.6% 15.4% 15.4% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.1
11-9 1.9% 12.6% 12.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
10-10 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.7% 44.4% 0.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 9.4 24.3 8.4 0.7 0.0 55.3 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 8.9 2.2 5.3 6.7 10.9 13.0 17.7 15.0 24.7 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 18.4% 10.7 0.7 3.5 13.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 13.9% 10.9 1.7 11.3 0.9