Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.6 170
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 178
Pace 72.2 86
Improvement +0.7 156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #208 B- D F+ C+ C+
Defense C #141 C+ C D+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 61% 113 +1.7 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 243 40% 104 -0.9 225
Three Pointers 43% 141 36% 74 +2.7 88
1st FG Attempt 1.09 79 +3.6 78
Second Chance 22.8% 349 1.08 98 0.25 319
Turnovers 20.4% 343
Freethrows 0.30 206 77% 26 0.23 141
Total Offense -1.5 208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 146 61% 273 -2.1 255
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 98 36% 122 -0.5 225
Three Pointers 37% 288 29% 26 +4.4 25
1st FG Attempt 0.98 113 +1.9 113
Second Chance 29.8% 150 1.03 194 0.31 167
Turnovers 15.6% 253
Freethrows 0.29 154 70% 51 0.20 118
Total Defense +0.9 141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 116 -0.2 133
Shot Type Accuracy +2.9 82 -1.7 111
Possession Length 16.9 129 16.5 54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 248 0.18 216
Improvement -2.3 #305 +3.0 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 19% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 80% 90% 65%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 98%
Conference Champion 10% 14% 3%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 19% 13%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 67 - 10
Quad 49 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 74 @Stanford L 68 - 91 15% -11  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 D- -6 C- C+ F D+ -5 C+ B F
 Tue, Nov 11 124 @UNLV W 102 - 93 29% +6  82% 1 - 1 B+ +14 A +14 A+ B- B C -1 C- B+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 265 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 79% +7  95% 2 - 1 C -1 D+ -3 D- C- B- C+ +1 B- C F+
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 5% -10  1% 2 - 2 B+ +13 A +13 A+ F+ C C +0 F A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 196 Lamar L 63 - 68 68% -0  37% 2 - 3 D -10 F -17 F F F B+ +6 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 143 Oakland L 87 - 95 55% -4  16% 2 - 4 D -10 C- -1 B- B+ F+ D- -8 F A C-
 Wed, Dec 3 146 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 56% -3  17% 2 - 5 D- -11 D -6 C+ D C- D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 288 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 65% -1  40% 3 - 5 C -0 C +0 B- B+ F C -1 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 11 @Louisville L 54 - 94 3% -17  0% 3 - 6 F+ -17 F -15 F+ F F C+ +0 B+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 311 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 86% +4  70% 4 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 A- F F+ B- +4 B F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 175 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 63% +9  99% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +5 C+ +2 B- F D B- +3 A+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 189 @Idaho W 79 - 73 43% +9  89% 6 - 6 3 - 0 B- +7 B- +4 B D- D- B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 229 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 50% +2  68% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C- -2 D- -6 D F+ D B +4 C B F
 Sat, Jan 17 162 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 37% -0  48% 6 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -6 D- -8 C+ F F C+ +1 B- C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 311 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 70% +12  85% 7 - 8 4 - 2 A +20 A+ +30 A+ A+ A D -7 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 232 Weber St. W 81 - 65 73% +2  46% 8 - 8 5 - 2 B +9 B +7 A+ B F B- +3 D- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 250 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 76% +8  97% 9 - 8 6 - 2 C +1 F -10 C+ F D+ A +11 A+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 142 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 32% +5  89% 10 - 8 7 - 2 B +8 D+ -4 B+ F F A +12 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 254 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 57% -8  9% 10 - 9 7 - 3 D -9 C- -1 D+ A+ F D- -8 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 229 Eastern Washington L 74 - 82 72% +0  53% 10 - 10 7 - 4 F+ -15 D- -8 B- F F D -7 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 189 Idaho W 73 - 68 66% -2  39% 11 - 10 8 - 4 C +0 D- -7 B+ D+ F B+ +7 B A C+
 Sat, Feb 14 162 Montana St. W 74 - 71 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 250 @Idaho St. W 74 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 232 @Weber St. W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 254 Sacramento St. W 85 - 77 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 Portland St. W 72 - 71 55%
 Mon, Mar 2 175 @Northern Colorado L 76 - 79 40%
Totals 14 - 13 11 - 7 -1 C- -2 B- D F+ C +1 C+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C+ B- B- 40% 17% 43% C+ B- F+ B- D F+ C B+ C+ C D+ C+ B+ C+ 40% 23% 37% C+ C+ C+ C C D+ C+ B C+
1.06 61% 40% 36% +3 0 1.09 23% 1.1 .25 20% .30 77% .23 1.07 61% 36% 29% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .31 16% .29 70% .21
Nov
8		 Stanford D- D A+ F D 43% 17% 40% B+ C- F+ A+ C+ F C- A+ B+ D+ B- F C B- 52% 12% 35% C- C+ C+ B B F A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29 1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13
Nov
11		 UNLV A B A+ A A+ 55% 18% 27% B+ A+ B- C B- B C+ A+ A C F F A+ C 48% 13% 39% F+ C- B+ B+ B+ F+ C- A- B-
1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35 1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24
Nov
14		 Cal Poly D+ B F F D- 36% 14% 50% C D- F A+ C- B- A+ A- A+ C+ B- A+ C B 59% 10% 31% D- B- C+ D+ C F+ C A- C+
1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33 1.01 53% 17% 33% -5 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22
Nov
18		 Texas A&M A B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B- A+ F A+ F+ C D F F C F F B- F 43% 14% 43% B F A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
1.16 60% 67% 52% +20 0 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13 1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35
Nov
23		 Lamar F D F D- F 38% 18% 44% C+ F D+ F F F A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B F+ A+ 33% 50% 17% A A+ D+ F F B- A A+ A+
0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37 0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07
Nov
25		 Oakland C- D+ B- A C+ 47% 16% 36% B+ B- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ F B D- F A+ F F 49% 25% 26% C+ F D- A+ A C- F C F
1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21 1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34
Dec
3		 North Dakota St. D C+ A+ C+ B 22% 35% 43% F C+ D D D C- C- F D- D C- F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% A A- D F F D F F F
1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14 1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33
Dec
6		 North Dakota C D C+ A+ B- 40% 11% 49% C+ B- C- A+ B+ F A F C+ C F+ B A+ B- 42% 25% 33% B+ B F F+ F C- C+ F C-
1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29 1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24
Dec
20		 Louisville F C F F F+ 27% 27% 47% C F+ F F F F C- A+ B C+ F A+ A A- 42% 5% 53% D+ B+ D- F F B+ C+ B B-
0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23 1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Arizona C- A+ F A+ A- 39% 14% 47% C A- F D+ F F+ C- A+ B- B- B+ C- B- B 34% 28% 38% B B F+ D F+ B+ D+ F+ D
1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23 0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 Northern Colorado C+ A+ F D+ B- 35% 20% 45% D+ B- F D- F D A+ A+ A+ B- B- A A A+ 23% 30% 48% A+ A+ D+ D+ D F+ F D+ F
1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53 1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
8		 Idaho B- B- A+ D+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C B F A D- D- B- A+ A B- A- B- A+ A+ 52% 12% 36% F A+ F D F F F A F
1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33 1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31
Jan
10		 Eastern Washington D- B F F F+ 61% 15% 24% B+ D D+ F F+ D B- A B+ B A F D- C+ 42% 23% 35% C- C A+ F B F A+ F A+
1.02 64% 29% 18% -3 +2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .35 83% .29 1.04 45% 50% 39% 0 0 1.02 17% 1.6 .28 14% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Montana St. D- F A+ B+ C- 58% 4% 38% A+ C+ F C- F F C- A+ B- C+ B B+ F C+ 30% 38% 32% A B- B- C+ C+ D+ F D+ F
0.94 45% 100% 37% -3 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23 1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28
Jan
19		 Northern Arizona A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% B A+ C A+ A+ A C A B- D F A+ C- F+ 40% 4% 56% F F B A+ A- F D+ B+ C-
1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24 1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18
Jan
22		 Weber St. B A+ F A+ A+ 45% 13% 43% B- A+ D A+ B F F A F B- F B+ B D- 51% 15% 34% C- D- A A+ A+ C D+ A+ B-
1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16 1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22
Jan
24		 Idaho St. F B C- C- C 46% 13% 41% B C+ F F F D+ F A+ F A A+ A B+ A+ 31% 21% 48% A- A+ B+ F D+ B- B- A- B+
1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14 0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18
Jan
29		 Portland St. D+ A+ B F A 44% 29% 27% D B+ F F F F A+ B+ A+ A B+ C- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A+ C+ F+ D+ A F C- F
0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39 0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41
Jan
31		 Sacramento St. C- F A- A- D- 59% 4% 37% A D+ C+ A+ A+ F A- B- A- D- F A+ F F 36% 21% 43% D- F B A+ A+ D+ D- A- C-
1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28 1.19 79% 9% 48% +11 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27
Feb
5		 Eastern Washington D- C+ A+ B- B 38% 21% 40% D B- D- F F F C C+ C D C F F F 33% 24% 43% B- F+ C+ B- B- C- F A+ D-
1.05 61% 60% 37% +8 0 1.17 27% 0.8 .20 24% .32 76% .24 1.16 56% 50% 43% +8 -1 1.16 29% 1.0 .29 18% .42 63% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Idaho D- D A A+ B+ 31% 20% 49% C B+ F A+ D+ F C F D- B+ B A+ D+ B 35% 18% 47% C+ B B- A+ A C+ A A+ A+
1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21 0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.0 2.7 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 11.9 22.1 9.8 1.4 46.9 2nd
3rd 0.7 10.3 15.2 5.0 0.1 31.4 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 5.1 0.7 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 0.4 2.7 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 0.8 6th
7th 0.3 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.9 5.9 17.6 27.9 28.8 14.9 4.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.8% 2.7    1.4 1.3
13-5 33.2% 5.0    1.1 3.2 0.7
12-6 6.1% 1.8    0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 2.6 5.5 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.1% 25.4% 25.4% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.1
13-5 14.9% 23.7% 23.7% 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.4 11.4
12-6 28.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.2 0.6 3.0 1.8 0.0 23.5
11-7 27.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7 0.1 1.2 2.8 0.1 23.7
10-8 17.6% 11.1% 11.1% 15.1 0.2 1.5 0.3 15.6
9-9 5.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.1 0.4 5.4
8-10 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 14.3 83.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.1 16.3 56.7 26.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.4%