Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#77
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#75
Pace64.3#288
Improvement-1.4#258

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#124
First Shot+4.1#74
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#321
Layup/Dunks+4.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#22
Freethrows-3.2#347
Improvement-0.6#212

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#42
First Shot+6.8#24
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#269
Layups/Dunks-1.0#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#1
Freethrows+3.1#21
Improvement-0.7#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.5% 36.8% 32.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 74.3% 76.1% 48.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.5% 36.7% 32.4%
Second Round7.3% 7.4% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 312 - 315 - 6
Quad 48 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 238   Valparaiso W 83-63 86%     1 - 0 +15.8 +9.4 +7.1
  Nov 09, 2024 165   @ Seattle W 66-64 69%     2 - 0 +4.3 +0.4 +4.1
  Nov 16, 2024 105   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 63%     2 - 1 +1.1 -2.7 +3.9
  Nov 17, 2024 143   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 64%     3 - 1 +24.6 +2.0 +24.0
  Nov 22, 2024 289   Louisiana W 89-69 90%     4 - 1 +13.0 +20.8 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2024 56   Kansas St. W 67-65 38%     5 - 1 +12.6 +6.3 +6.5
  Nov 25, 2024 86   McNeese St. W 62-58 53%     6 - 1 +10.6 +1.8 +9.5
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99.7%    7 - 1 +6.1 +8.6 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 316   N.C. A&T W 83-74 95%     8 - 1 -2.7 +3.9 -6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 205   Texas Arlington W 79-56 87%     9 - 1 +18.1 +4.5 +14.4
  Jan 02, 2025 135   Western Kentucky L 70-71 79%     9 - 2 0 - 1 -2.2 -3.8 +1.6
  Jan 04, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee W 73-63 77%     10 - 2 1 - 1 +9.7 +2.9 +7.2
  Jan 09, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. W 76-68 68%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +10.7 +4.0 +6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-79 60%     11 - 3 2 - 2 -0.3 +2.7 -3.0
  Jan 16, 2025 139   UTEP L 70-72 80%     11 - 4 2 - 3 -3.4 -1.0 -2.3
  Jan 18, 2025 146   New Mexico St. W 68-60 81%     12 - 4 3 - 3 +6.3 +0.9 +5.8
  Jan 25, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 82-59 84%     13 - 4 4 - 3 +20.0 +15.3 +5.9
  Jan 30, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-68 62%     14 - 4 5 - 3 +12.2 +8.2 +4.2
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 61-72 61%     14 - 5 5 - 4 -6.4 -4.2 -3.2
  Feb 06, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 77-53 77%     15 - 5 6 - 4 +23.6 +10.2 +15.4
  Feb 08, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 64-61 82%     16 - 5 7 - 4 +0.6 -5.6 +6.4
  Feb 13, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. W 64-54 65%     17 - 5 8 - 4 +13.4 +1.4 +12.9
  Feb 15, 2025 139   @ UTEP W 76-69 64%     18 - 5 9 - 4 +10.7 +9.8 +1.3
  Feb 22, 2025 268   Florida International W 75-59 94%    
  Feb 27, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 70-62 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 74-66 80%    
  Mar 06, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee W 70-67 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky W 74-70 62%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 13.9 37.6 22.4 74.3 1st
2nd 0.1 4.5 12.2 1.9 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.3 1.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.5 9.5 27.0 39.5 22.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 22.4    22.4
13-5 95.3% 37.6    24.7 12.3 0.6
12-6 51.3% 13.9    2.5 7.5 3.8 0.2
11-7 4.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.3% 74.3 49.6 19.8 4.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 22.4% 43.4% 43.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.7 5.9 0.1 12.7 0.2%
13-5 39.5% 38.7% 38.7% 11.9 1.7 12.7 0.9 24.2
12-6 27.0% 32.1% 32.1% 12.2 0.4 6.6 1.7 0.0 18.3
11-7 9.5% 25.6% 25.6% 12.4 0.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 7.1
10-8 1.5% 24.0% 24.0% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 5.7 27.0 3.5 0.2 63.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 100.0% 11.6 0.1 1.3 37.4 60.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5% 0.2% 11.0 0.2