Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#91
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#82
Pace63.4#313
Improvement-2.7#304

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#141
First Shot+3.9#72
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#323
Layup/Dunks+4.3#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#18
Freethrows-3.2#346
Improvement-1.2#258

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#55
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#284
Layups/Dunks-1.4#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#2
Freethrows+3.0#23
Improvement-1.5#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 30.0% 25.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 95.4% 82.8%
Conference Champion 27.7% 32.2% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round28.8% 29.9% 25.1%
Second Round5.6% 5.9% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 311 - 514 - 7
Quad 48 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 214   Valparaiso W 83-63 80%     1 - 0 +17.1 +11.4 +6.4
  Nov 09, 2024 150   @ Seattle W 66-64 59%     2 - 0 +5.7 +0.7 +5.2
  Nov 16, 2024 108   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 60%     2 - 1 +0.4 -2.4 +2.9
  Nov 17, 2024 126   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 54%     3 - 1 +26.1 +2.9 +24.7
  Nov 22, 2024 306   Louisiana W 89-69 90%     4 - 1 +11.9 +19.2 -5.8
  Nov 24, 2024 89   Kansas St. W 67-65 49%     5 - 1 +8.4 +3.4 +5.2
  Nov 25, 2024 73   McNeese St. W 62-58 44%     6 - 1 +11.7 +2.9 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99.6%    7 - 1 +8.2 +10.0 +0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 322   N.C. A&T W 83-74 94%     8 - 1 -3.1 +2.1 -5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 201   Texas Arlington W 79-56 84%     9 - 1 +18.4 +5.0 +14.2
  Jan 02, 2025 134   Western Kentucky L 70-71 75%     9 - 2 0 - 1 -2.0 -2.4 +0.4
  Jan 04, 2025 111   Middle Tennessee W 73-63 71%     10 - 2 1 - 1 +10.4 +4.0 +6.8
  Jan 09, 2025 169   @ Sam Houston St. W 76-68 64%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +10.4 +2.7 +7.6
  Jan 11, 2025 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-79 53%     11 - 3 2 - 2 +0.4 +2.6 -2.1
  Jan 16, 2025 131   UTEP L 70-72 75%     11 - 4 2 - 3 -2.9 -1.0 -2.0
  Jan 18, 2025 128   New Mexico St. W 68-60 74%     12 - 4 3 - 3 +7.5 -0.4 +8.4
  Jan 25, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 30, 2025 185   @ Kennesaw St. W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 162   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 121   Louisiana Tech W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 128   @ New Mexico St. W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 131   @ UTEP W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 243   Florida International W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 162   Jacksonville St. W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 02, 2025 185   Kennesaw St. W 77-67 83%    
  Mar 06, 2025 111   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 134   @ Western Kentucky W 72-70 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 7.0 10.2 7.2 1.9 27.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.5 10.5 4.5 0.7 0.0 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.1 8.7 3.2 0.2 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 7.6 2.4 0.2 12.2 4th
5th 0.5 4.5 2.9 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.2 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.9 10.2 16.7 20.1 20.9 14.9 7.9 1.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.9% 1.9    1.8 0.1
14-4 91.6% 7.2    5.8 1.3 0.0
13-5 68.6% 10.2    6.0 3.6 0.7
12-6 33.6% 7.0    1.6 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
11-7 6.8% 1.4    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 15.2 8.5 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.9% 52.9% 51.9% 1.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.9 2.2%
14-4 7.9% 43.8% 43.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.0 4.4 0.2%
13-5 14.9% 37.7% 37.7% 0.1% 11.9 1.0 4.2 0.4 9.3 0.1%
12-6 20.9% 31.7% 31.7% 12.1 0.5 4.8 1.3 0.0 14.3
11-7 20.1% 26.6% 26.6% 12.3 0.1 3.3 1.8 0.1 14.7
10-8 16.7% 24.0% 24.0% 12.5 0.0 2.1 1.8 0.1 12.7
9-9 10.2% 18.5% 18.5% 12.8 0.6 1.1 0.2 8.3
8-10 4.9% 16.1% 16.1% 13.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.1
7-11 1.9% 5.2% 5.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.3 17.2 6.9 0.7 0.0 71.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 9.9 1.0 4.1 1.0 6.1 21.4 20.4 40.8 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 3.0% 12.0 3.0