Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.5#9
Pace74.7#50
Improvement+2.9#30

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#8
First Shot+8.8#11
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#56
Layup/Dunks+5.2#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#57
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement+0.4#153

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#22
First Shot+9.1#3
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#327
Layups/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#12
Freethrows+2.0#53
Improvement+2.5#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.0% 5.1% 2.3%
#1 Seed 20.0% 24.0% 13.4%
Top 2 Seed 43.2% 49.9% 32.2%
Top 4 Seed 76.4% 82.2% 66.8%
Top 6 Seed 89.8% 93.1% 84.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.5% 99.2% 97.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.1% 97.0%
Average Seed 3.3 3.0 3.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 90.4% 85.2%
Conference Champion 13.2% 15.0% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round98.0% 98.9% 96.6%
Second Round88.0% 90.7% 83.7%
Sweet Sixteen58.6% 61.9% 53.0%
Elite Eight33.3% 36.5% 28.1%
Final Four17.7% 19.9% 14.0%
Championship Game8.9% 10.2% 6.8%
National Champion4.3% 5.0% 3.2%

Next Game: North Carolina (Neutral) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 7
Quad 27 - 116 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 145   South Florida W 98-83 94%     1 - 0 +15.7 +16.6 -2.2
  Nov 07, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 81-60 97%     2 - 0 +15.9 +11.9 +4.9
  Nov 11, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 86-62 99%     3 - 0 +14.3 +5.8 +7.5
  Nov 15, 2024 65   @ Florida St. W 87-74 73%     4 - 0 +24.5 +15.5 +8.2
  Nov 19, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.5%    5 - 0 +8.0 +7.2 +1.2
  Nov 22, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 93-68 97%     6 - 0 +21.4 +17.5 +3.2
  Nov 28, 2024 94   Wake Forest W 75-58 87%     7 - 0 +22.8 +10.3 +13.2
  Nov 29, 2024 100   Wichita St. W 88-51 88%     8 - 0 +42.0 +19.8 +23.0
  Dec 04, 2024 93   Virginia W 87-69 91%     9 - 0 +20.8 +26.5 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 61   Arizona St. W 83-66 80%     10 - 0 +26.1 +9.4 +15.5
  Dec 17, 2024 18   North Carolina W 86-83 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 167   North Florida W 96-75 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 336   Stetson W 95-63 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 11   @ Kentucky L 85-87 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 4   Tennessee W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 29   @ Arkansas W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 14, 2025 51   Missouri W 85-74 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 33   Texas W 81-72 78%    
  Jan 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 40   Georgia W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 04, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 88-76 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 78-86 24%    
  Feb 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 18, 2025 37   Oklahoma W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 60   @ LSU W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 40   @ Georgia W 78-75 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 79-72 74%    
  Mar 05, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 85-89 37%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   Mississippi W 82-75 74%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.5 4.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.6 1.5 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 5.4 1.6 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.6 2.1 0.2 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 2.8 0.3 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.8 9.1 12.3 14.9 15.9 14.5 10.8 6.7 3.1 1.0 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.5% 1.0    1.0 0.1
16-2 89.2% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 64.2% 4.3    2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.5% 3.5    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 6.8 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.1% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.7% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.4 4.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.8% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.6 5.1 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.5% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.1 4.1 6.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 2.6 2.1 5.5 5.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.9% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 3.3 0.7 2.9 5.2 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.3% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 4.1 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 9.1% 99.9% 2.6% 97.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 5.8% 98.7% 1.9% 96.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.7%
7-11 3.1% 92.0% 1.0% 91.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 92.0%
6-12 1.6% 72.4% 0.3% 72.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 72.3%
5-13 0.7% 35.4% 0.3% 35.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 35.3%
4-14 0.3% 11.2% 11.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.2%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.5% 11.0% 87.5% 3.3 20.0 23.2 19.2 14.0 8.4 5.1 3.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.1 1.5 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2