Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+23.3#3
Pace78.9#13
Improvement-4.1#354

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#5
First Shot+11.5#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#44
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement-0.8#256

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#41
First Shot+2.8#96
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#20
Layups/Dunks+5.1#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#98
Freethrows+2.7#35
Improvement-3.3#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.9% 7.0% 3.4%
#1 Seed 24.7% 28.3% 16.4%
Top 2 Seed 52.7% 58.0% 40.4%
Top 4 Seed 83.3% 86.8% 75.1%
Top 6 Seed 92.6% 94.7% 87.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.3% 97.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.2% 97.0%
Average Seed 2.9 2.7 3.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 84.6% 77.2%
Conference Champion 10.1% 11.4% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four1.3% 0.9% 2.4%
First Round98.1% 98.9% 96.1%
Second Round89.2% 91.2% 84.5%
Sweet Sixteen58.2% 60.8% 52.0%
Elite Eight32.0% 34.4% 26.4%
Final Four15.9% 17.4% 12.6%
Championship Game7.7% 8.4% 5.8%
National Champion3.5% 3.9% 2.5%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Neutral) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 77 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 211 - 9
Quad 24 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 133   Wright St. W 103-62 95%     1 - 0 +39.5 +20.5 +16.6
  Nov 09, 2024 260   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +19.5 +14.9 +1.5
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 37%     3 - 0 +25.8 +10.8 +14.7
  Nov 19, 2024 107   Lipscomb W 97-68 93%     4 - 0 +30.2 +23.3 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 108-59 99%     5 - 0 +37.8 +16.5 +14.3
  Nov 26, 2024 106   Western Kentucky W 87-68 92%     6 - 0 +20.3 +8.8 +9.6
  Nov 29, 2024 253   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +20.8 +16.6 +1.0
  Dec 03, 2024 30   @ Clemson L 66-70 56%     7 - 1 +11.7 +3.9 +7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 3   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 39%     8 - 1 +21.2 +19.8 +1.3
  Dec 11, 2024 224   Colgate W 78-67 98%     9 - 1 +4.7 +5.8 -0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 50   Louisville W 93-85 83%     10 - 1 +15.2 +19.4 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 39   Ohio St. W 83-77 70%    
  Dec 31, 2024 159   Brown W 88-68 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 8   Florida W 87-85 59%    
  Jan 07, 2025 40   @ Georgia W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 83-82 55%    
  Jan 14, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 81-75 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   Alabama W 91-89 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 88-83 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 29   Arkansas W 88-80 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 83-71 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 4   Tennessee W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 33   @ Texas W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 19, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 91-80 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 88-92 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma W 82-80 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 85-87 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 60   LSU W 88-77 85%    
  Mar 08, 2025 51   @ Missouri W 85-81 65%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.1 1.3 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 5.5 1.5 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.4 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.5 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.8 11.0 13.7 15.1 14.3 12.2 8.2 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.9% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-2 89.1% 2.0    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.1% 3.3    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.8% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 5.2 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.1 1.9 0.3 100.0%
15-3 4.9% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 1.2 3.8 1.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 1.4 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.2% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 1.6 5.8 5.5 0.9 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.3% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 1.9 4.2 7.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.1% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 2.4 2.2 6.6 5.0 1.2 0.1 100.0%
10-8 13.7% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 3.0 0.7 3.5 6.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.0% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 3.6 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
8-10 7.8% 100.0% 2.0% 98.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 4.9% 99.6% 0.9% 98.7% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
6-12 2.8% 93.4% 0.6% 92.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.2 93.3%
5-13 1.3% 62.2% 0.3% 61.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 62.1%
4-14 0.5% 14.7% 14.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 14.7%
3-15 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.4%
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.7% 9.0% 89.6% 2.9 24.7 28.0 19.8 10.8 6.0 3.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.1 1.3 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0