Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#12
Expected Predictive Rating+25.2#2
Pace78.9#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 5.8% 1.1%
#1 Seed 20.2% 20.8% 7.3%
Top 2 Seed 40.3% 41.3% 18.8%
Top 4 Seed 68.4% 69.4% 45.8%
Top 6 Seed 82.9% 83.8% 64.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.8% 95.2% 85.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.1% 94.5% 85.0%
Average Seed 3.6 3.5 4.9
.500 or above 97.3% 97.7% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 83.2% 70.0%
Conference Champion 15.8% 16.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 1.6%
First Four2.3% 2.2% 5.1%
First Round93.7% 94.2% 83.3%
Second Round79.5% 80.3% 62.4%
Sweet Sixteen49.9% 50.7% 32.3%
Elite Eight26.8% 27.3% 15.7%
Final Four13.7% 14.0% 6.1%
Championship Game6.6% 6.8% 2.5%
National Champion3.2% 3.3% 1.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 8
Quad 25 - 114 - 9
Quad 34 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 189   Wright St. W 103-62 96%     1 - 0 +36.6 +18.8 +15.4
  Nov 09, 2024 242   Bucknell W 100-72 97%     2 - 0 +21.1 +13.4 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 6   Duke W 77-72 42%     3 - 0 +23.2 +8.7 +14.2
  Nov 19, 2024 143   Lipscomb W 92-74 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 324   Jackson St. W 93-65 99.6%   
  Nov 26, 2024 118   Western Kentucky W 95-79 93%    
  Nov 29, 2024 223   Georgia St. W 90-68 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 44   @ Clemson W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 07, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 83-86 39%    
  Dec 11, 2024 172   Colgate W 85-65 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 49   Louisville W 86-77 80%    
  Dec 21, 2024 17   Ohio St. W 78-76 58%    
  Dec 31, 2024 199   Brown W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 21   Florida W 89-83 70%    
  Jan 07, 2025 68   @ Georgia W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Mississippi St. W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 28   Texas A&M W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   Alabama W 87-86 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 83   @ Vanderbilt W 85-79 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 19   Arkansas W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 61   @ Mississippi W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 64   South Carolina W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   Tennessee W 79-77 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 23   @ Texas W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   Vanderbilt W 88-76 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 84-89 35%    
  Feb 26, 2025 52   @ Oklahoma W 79-75 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   Auburn L 82-83 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   LSU W 85-76 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 71   @ Missouri W 81-76 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 4.8 3.9 1.8 0.4 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.4 2.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 3.2 1.0 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.8 7.1 9.3 11.2 12.8 13.1 12.3 10.1 7.2 4.3 1.8 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.3% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 90.5% 3.9    3.1 0.8 0.0
15-3 66.5% 4.8    2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.2% 3.5    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.0% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.4 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.3% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.4 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.1% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.7 4.7 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.3% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.1 3.2 5.3 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.1% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.7 1.5 4.3 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.8% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 3.5 0.4 2.2 4.4 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.2% 99.9% 3.4% 96.5% 4.4 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 9.3% 99.2% 3.2% 96.1% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
8-10 7.1% 96.1% 2.0% 94.1% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 96.0%
7-11 4.8% 78.7% 1.3% 77.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.0 78.4%
6-12 2.8% 46.8% 0.6% 46.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.5 46.5%
5-13 1.5% 18.3% 18.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.3 18.3%
4-14 0.7% 2.8% 2.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8%
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 94.8% 11.7% 83.1% 3.6 20.2 20.1 16.6 11.4 8.8 5.8 3.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.2 94.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3