Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.5 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #244
Pace 69.0 #177
Improvement +0.4 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #196 C C D D C-
Defense #303 C- D F C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #214 1.05 #304 -2.9 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #115 0.81 #98 +1.8 #89
Three Pointers 39% #216 1.07 #105 +0.2 #173
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #207 -0.8 #206
Freethrows 15.4 #296 72% #204 11.1 #289
Second Chance 31.2% #165 1.01 #239 0.31 #186
Turnovers 18.3% #293
Total Offense -1.1 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.23 #273 +0.7 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.80 #250 +2.0 #41
Three Pointers 51% #10 1.00 #155 -4.4 #330
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #235 -1.7 #237
Freethrows 17.8 #186 70% #83 12.5 #163
Second Chance 31.3% #214 1.19 #332 0.37 #305
Turnovers 13.2% #341
Total Defense -4.3 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #252 1.1% #275
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #190 2.1% #221
Possession Length 18.2 #265 16.4 #37
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.21 #298
Improvement +1.5 #100 -1.1 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 2.2% 2.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 3.8% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.6% 15.7% 48.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 252 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 60% -1  1 - 0 -3 -5 C F F +1 C+ F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 190 @Campbell L 82 - 91 26% -6  1 - 1 -8 -2 F F D -4 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 12 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 53% +1  2 - 1 +6 +0 D- D+ C- +5 A+ C- D-
 Sun, Nov 16 283 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 44% +3  2 - 2 -9 +3 B A+ F -12 C F F
 Thu, Nov 20 30 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  2 - 3 -16 -11 F C- F -4 C- B- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 288 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 68% +8  3 - 3 +13 +10 B- B- A+ +3 B- C A
 Sat, Nov 29 167 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 23% -14  3 - 4 -27 -11 F A- F -18 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 329 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 78% +13  4 - 4 +0 +9 A B+ C+ -9 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 257 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 37% +8  5 - 4 +8 +15 A+ B+ F -7 C- C F
 Sun, Dec 14 23 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  5 - 5 -21 -7 F A- B- -17 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 201 Buffalo L 71 - 88 50% -10  5 - 6 0 - 1 -23 -3 D- F A+ -21 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 166 @Toledo L 79 - 84 23% +3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 +2 F B- F -5 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 6 89 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 9% -6  5 - 8 0 - 3 -2 +2 D D- B -3 B F A
 Sat, Jan 10 198 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 50% +1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +11 +9 A+ B F +3 C- A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 176 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 45% -4  6 - 9 1 - 4 -7 +11 A- A+ B -18 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 64 @Akron L 89 - 104 7% -2  6 - 10 1 - 5 -3 +21 A+ B- C -25 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 129 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 33% -10  6 - 11 1 - 6 -19 -16 F D F -4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 322 Central Michigan W 79 - 71 76%
 Tue, Jan 27 318 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 75 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 196 @Ohio L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 263 @Texas St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 166 Toledo L 79 - 81 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 198 @Eastern Michigan L 70 - 76 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 64 Akron L 78 - 89 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 322 @Central Michigan W 76 - 74 56%
 Tue, Feb 24 129 @Bowling Green L 71 - 81 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 89 Miami (OH) L 76 - 85 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 296 Ball St. W 74 - 69 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 148 @Kent St. L 79 - 88 20%
Totals 11 - 18 5 - 13 -5 -1 C C D -4 C- D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.3 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.6 5.7 5.9 0.6 12.8 9th
10th 0.4 6.8 9.5 2.3 0.0 19.0 10th
11th 0.3 6.2 12.5 3.8 0.2 23.0 11th
12th 0.2 4.4 9.8 3.7 0.2 18.3 12th
13th 0.5 3.2 5.7 2.2 0.2 11.8 13th
Total 0.5 3.4 10.4 18.6 23.9 20.1 13.7 6.4 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
8-10 6.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.3
7-11 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 20.1% 20.1
5-13 23.9% 23.9
4-14 18.6% 18.6
3-15 10.4% 10.4
2-16 3.4% 3.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%