Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.6 280
Results Rating -6.8 272
Consistency 0.18 331
Pace 69.0 168
Improvement -1.1 221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 207 D+ C- C C- D+
Defense D 316 D+ D+ F+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 D- 51% 336 -3.2 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 72 C 38% 181 +1.6 89
Three Pointers 37% 260 C+ 35% 129 -1.4 229
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 267 D+ -2.2 260
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 271
Second Chance C- 29.1% 213 C 1.03 180 C- 0.30 204
Opponents' Steals C 9.2% 157
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 212
Turnovers C 16.7% 179
Freethrows C- 0.29 238 C+ 74% 157 C- 0.21 212
Total Offense C- -1.5 207

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 295 F 17.4% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 125 C+ 4.5% 154
Three Pointers C+ 86% 151 D+ 1.3% 296
Total C- 52% 252 F 8.2% 356


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 207 D 63% 308 +1.4 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 350 B 35% 65 -2.9 7
Three Pointers 48% 19 C- 35% 248 +4.5 343
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 317 D+ +2.1 271
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 280
Second Chance C 29.9% 171 D 1.14 318 D+ 0.34 259
Turnovers from Steals F 5.7% 359
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 187
Turnovers F+ 12.9% 353
Freethrows C- 0.32 233 B- 70% 68 C 0.22 202
Total Defense D -5.1 316

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 137 D 6.7% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 62 D 2.7% 307
Three Pointers D 89% 319 C+ 1.1% 119
Total D+ 59% 259 D- 3.5% 333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 269 16.3 27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 149 0.20 294
Consistency 0.13 208 0.13 269
Improvement -0.4 203 -0.7 224

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 289 278 265
Results Rating Rank 273 268 251
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 5 - 13
Conference Finish 12 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 83% 1% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 47 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 228 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 51% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D -5 C F F B- +3 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 183 @Campbell L 82 - 91 22% -6  5% 1 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 F+ F D+ C- -2 D- D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 257 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 57% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- C- C- B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 16 284 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 39% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 B A+ F F -11 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 32 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 2% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -13 F D+ F C -1 C- B B-
 Sun, Nov 23 272 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 60% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 B+ C+ A+ B+ +6 C+ B- B
 Sat, Nov 29 155 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -26 F -14 F B+ F F -14 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 337 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 79% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B- +5 B+ C+ B- D -6 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 250 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 33% +8  95% 5 - 4 B- +8 A +13 A+ A- F D -5 C C- F
 Sun, Dec 14 29 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -22 F -12 F B+ B F -14 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 212 Buffalo L 71 - 88 47% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D- F A+ F -19 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 151 @Toledo L 79 - 84 17% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -2 C +1 D- C- D- C- -2 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 90 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 8% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C- -2 C -0 D D- B C -1 C F+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 55% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +9 B +7 A- B F B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 193 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 44% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -8 B +6 B A+ B- F -14 C+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 71 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B+ C+ F -23 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 165 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 38% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -22 F -19 F D F D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 258 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 58% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 D- D- A+ B +5 A+ D- D
 Tue, Jan 27 341 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 61% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -29 D+ -3 F+ D- D+ F -30 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 221 @Ohio L 71 - 91 28% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -21 D -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D
 Sat, Feb 7 232 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 29% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -11 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 151 Toledo L 79 - 90 35% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 F A+ A+ F -15 F A- F
 Sat, Feb 14 248 @Eastern Michigan W 76 - 62 32% -2  30% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B+ +12 B+ +9 F+ A+ A B +4 C B F
 Tue, Feb 17 71 Akron L 73 - 90 13% -13  1% 8 - 16 3 - 10 D- -12 C -0 B- F A+ F -12 F+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 258 @Central Michigan L 70 - 83 35% -7  12% 8 - 17 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 F C- F+ D+ -3 D B- F+
 Tue, Feb 24 165 @Bowling Green W 88 - 79 20% +2  64% 9 - 17 4 - 11 B+ +11 A +12 B- C+ A+ C -1 C B+ F
 Fri, Feb 27 90 Miami (OH) L 67 - 69 18% +3  74% 9 - 18 4 - 12 C +1 D- -6 F+ C+ B- A- +7 B A+ D
 Tue, Mar 3 292 Ball St. L 71 - 74 OT 65% -2  27% 9 - 19 4 - 13 D- -13 D- -8 D+ F B+ D -6 D+ D- F
 Fri, Mar 6 152 @Kent St. L 76 - 86 17%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 14 -7 C- -2 A- D+ D+ D -5 C+ C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C C+ D+ 38% 48% 37% D+ D+ C- C C- C C- C+ C- D D B C- D+ 38% 14% 48% D D+ C D D+ F+ C- B- C
1.06 51% 38% 35% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.0 .30 17% .29 74% .21 1.16 63% 35% 35% +2 +1 1.08 30% 1.1 .34 13% .32 70% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D D+ A+ F C 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A A+ B- D B- A B- 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- B- F+ A+ C
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F C- C+ F+ 50% 25% 25% C+ F+ D+ F F D+ A A A+ C- A- C+ F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D- A+ F D+ C+ F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F C- C- D+ C- D+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C+ A+ F+ C+ D D- C+ F+ C-
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C+ A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B B A- A+ A+ F F A D- F A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% B- D+ C F F+ F B A+ A
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D D+ F C- C C- C F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D- C- F A+ B B- C- C- D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B+ C A+ C- B+ 43% 19% 38% B B+ D A+ C+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D+ C+ A F B- B A F B-
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F+ F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B- B- A+ B B+ 49% 15% 36% B- B+ F A+ C+ B- F F F D A+ C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A+ F C F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C+ A+ A- F A- A+ A+ D C- D A C 34% 21% 45% D- C B F C- F C- A C+
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A C B+ B A+ F C- F F+ D- F F 40% 8% 52% D F B- D C F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C- D- 35% 14% 51% C D- D+ F F A+ F+ C F+ F F A+ C C- 34% 8% 58% D D+ D- F F F D- C- D-
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C+ B D 36% 27% 38% F+ D- A F C- D- C C+ C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C+ F D+ F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C D A+ F D- 52% 19% 30% B+ D C+ F D- B A- C- B+ C F C A+ C+ 43% 11% 47% F+ C F B+ F+ A- F D- F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- A- C- B F A+ C+ A+ B- D B- A+ C+ 49% 6% 45% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ A+
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C B B+ A+ A+ B- F B- F F C- C- C+ C 29% 19% 52% C+ C+ D+ F F F+ C- F F+
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B B B+ C+ D+ F D F D B- F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F A+ F A
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +19 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C F D F F+ B+ D- D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan C- D- F+ D F+ 50% 15% 35% B- D- D D+ D- A+ A+ C A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois D+ F F C+ F+ 34% 17% 49% D+ F+ A F D- D+ A+ A A+ F B F F F 36% 8% 56% D+ F F D+ F F A+ A- A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +13 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D D F A+ C 52% 21% 27% C+ C+ F F+ F A+ A F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F D+ F F D D- F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A- B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D+ F+ C+ B- C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B- F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F B- D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F A- F F A+ F
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27
Feb
14		 Eastern Michigan B+ F F A+ F 54% 19% 27% B+ F+ A A+ A+ A A A+ A+ B C- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% C C A+ F B F A+ A+ A+
1.18 31% 22% 54% -10 +1 0.85 39% 1.3 .50 11% .40 83% .33 0.96 60% 13% 44% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .22 12% .16 56% .09
Feb
17		 Akron C A+ F A+ B+ 20% 35% 45% F B- F D- F A+ D- B+ D+ F D A+ F D- 49% 9% 42% F F+ D- A+ A F C C+ C
1.08 82% 21% 44% +6 -3 1.07 17% 0.8 .14 13% .22 77% .17 1.33 67% 0% 48% +9 +2 1.25 38% 0.8 .29 10% .26 75% .20
Feb
21		 Central Michigan F F+ D- F F 47% 25% 27% D+ F D- A C- F+ A A- A+ D+ F+ D+ A+ C- 51% 15% 34% F D B C- B- F+ F F F
0.94 50% 31% 21% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.4 .41 20% .42 76% .32 1.11 67% 43% 25% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.1 .29 15% .60 76% .46
Feb
24		 Bowling Green A C+ B- A- B+ 38% 37% 25% F B- F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ A+ F+ C 45% 18% 36% B- C B+ A- B+ F F A F
1.21 60% 42% 38% +4 -2 1.06 19% 1.7 .31 12% .48 87% .42 1.08 60% 10% 40% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 10% .49 66% .32
Feb
27		 Miami (OH) D- C+ F F F+ 46% 32% 22% D+ F+ C B C+ B- A- C+ A- A- F A+ A+ B+ 49% 20% 31% D+ B A+ B+ A+ D F A+ C-
0.98 61% 25% 27% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 16% .35 75% .26 1.01 75% 20% 27% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 13% .42 60% .25
Mar
3		 Ball St. D- F A A- C 31% 39% 31% F D+ F C- F B+ A+ C A+ D C+ A+ C- C 65% 13% 22% F D+ B F D- F C- A+ B-
0.99 40% 47% 40% +1 -3 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 15% .40 79% .31 1.03 53% 14% 33% -7 +3 0.95 22% 1.4 .30 11% .30 58% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 44.5 17.2 61.7 11th
12th 37.9 37.9 12th
13th 0.4 0.4 13th
Total 82.8 17.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 17.2% 17.2
4-14 82.8% 82.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.2%
Lose Out 82.8%