Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#121
Pace70.0#133
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.9% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 43.4% 55.5% 29.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 66.7% 50.4%
Conference Champion 9.3% 12.3% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 4.6% 10.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round7.6% 9.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 77 - 13
Quad 47 - 314 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2025 234   @ Evansville W 69-68 53%    
  Nov 19, 2025 5   @ Michigan L 63-86 2%    
  Nov 23, 2025 120   Murray St. L 71-73 42%    
  Nov 24, 2025 79   George Washington L 68-75 26%    
  Nov 25, 2025 104   McNeese St. L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 01, 2025 103   UAB L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 07, 2025 106   Belmont L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 17, 2025 143   Kennesaw St. W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 29, 2025 1   @ Houston L 51-78 1%    
  Jan 02, 2026 145   Louisiana Tech W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 04, 2026 200   Sam Houston St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 08, 2026 166   @ UTEP L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 10, 2026 135   @ New Mexico St. L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 14, 2026 145   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 17, 2026 164   Missouri St. W 68-64 61%    
  Jan 24, 2026 158   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 28, 2026 87   Liberty L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 31, 2026 157   Western Kentucky W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 04, 2026 211   Florida International W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 07, 2026 258   @ Delaware W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 12, 2026 143   @ Kennesaw St. L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 14, 2026 157   @ Western Kentucky L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 18, 2026 200   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 21, 2026 258   Delaware W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 26, 2026 166   UTEP W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 28, 2026 135   New Mexico St. W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 05, 2026 211   @ Florida International L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 07, 2026 164   @ Missouri St. L 65-67 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.2 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.0 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.8 8.4 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 94.3% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 79.1% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 59.1% 2.5    1.5 0.8 0.1
15-5 32.4% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.4% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 62.1% 51.7% 10.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.4%
19-1 0.5% 47.1% 41.3% 5.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.8%
18-2 1.3% 42.9% 42.5% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7%
17-3 2.7% 28.8% 28.3% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.8%
16-4 4.2% 27.9% 27.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.2%
15-5 5.6% 18.7% 18.6% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 4.6 0.1%
14-6 7.0% 13.8% 13.8% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.1
13-7 8.4% 11.8% 11.8% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 7.4
12-8 9.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.0
11-9 9.5% 5.1% 5.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.0
10-10 9.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7
9-11 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
8-12 8.6% 1.3% 1.3% 18.1 0.0 0.1 8.5
7-13 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.1
6-14 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 4.0% 4.0
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 92.3 0.1%