Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 #110
Pace 65.8 #272
Improvement +0.0 #184

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #172 B D C F D+
Defense #106 B+ B- C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.23 #100 -1.6 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #114 0.75 #177 +1.2 #111
Three Pointers 43% #148 1.15 #24 +3.8 #64
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #85 +3.4 #85
Freethrows 14.2 #336 69% #299 9.7 #343
Second Chance 29.4% #221 0.87 #353 0.26 #308
Turnovers 16.1% #151
Total Offense -0.4 #172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.11 #122 -1.5 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #119 0.65 #33 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 35% #325 0.88 #38 +5.3 #15
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #51 +4.5 #51
Freethrows 18.4 #224 73% #231 13.4 #233
Second Chance 26.8% #53 1.08 #235 0.29 #102
Turnovers 15.5% #237
Total Defense +2.4 #106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #281 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.2% #60 -8.9% #41
Possession Length 18.2 #262 17.8 #259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.13 #52
Improvement -2.3 #304 +2.4 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 16.1% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 85.8% 92.3% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 98.6% 90.7%
Conference Champion 9.6% 13.0% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round14.4% 16.1% 11.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 59 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 271 @Evansville W 77 - 72 69% +8  1 - 0 +2 +5 A- F B- -3 D A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 2% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C D+ +10 A+ B+ A-
 Sun, Nov 23 97 Murray St. W 90 - 87 38% +3  2 - 1 +8 +10 B- A+ A- -2 C+ B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 72 George Washington L 79 - 92 29% -10  2 - 2 -5 +5 B- A- D -10 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 87 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 32% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 A F A+ -11 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 117 UAB W 76 - 61 59% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A+ B +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 82 Belmont L 62 - 83 42% -8  3 - 4 -17 -11 F C- A+ -6 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 150 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 67% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -1 -6 D- F F +5 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Houston L 60 - 69 3% -5  4 - 5 +16 +11 A+ D+ F +3 A A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 228 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 80% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +30 +33 A+ F A+ +4 C A- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 124 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 60% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +0 -4 B+ F B +4 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 256 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 66% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +5 D+ F C -10 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 133 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 40% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +9 -9 F F B +18 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 228 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 61% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -2 -7 D- B- F +5 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 179 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 73% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -1 +7 A+ A+ F -9 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 216 @Jacksonville St. W 68 - 66 59%
 Thu, Jan 29 94 Liberty L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 162 Western Kentucky W 76 - 71 69%
 Wed, Feb 4 192 Florida International W 78 - 71 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 295 @Delaware W 70 - 63 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 150 @Kennesaw St. L 75 - 77 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 162 @Western Kentucky L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 18 124 @Sam Houston St. L 73 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 295 Delaware W 73 - 60 88%
 Thu, Feb 26 256 UTEP W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 133 New Mexico St. W 72 - 69 62%
 Thu, Mar 5 192 @Florida International W 75 - 74 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 179 @Missouri St. W 69 - 68 52%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 +2 +0 B D C +2 B+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.1 1.7 0.4 9.6 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 10.1 14.5 10.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 42.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 8.2 7.4 1.9 0.1 19.5 3rd
4th 0.6 5.0 4.9 0.9 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 3.9 0.8 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.3 12.1 17.0 18.7 17.7 13.1 6.8 2.2 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 90.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 75.6% 1.7    1.2 0.5
16-4 45.2% 3.1    1.7 1.4 0.0
15-5 22.7% 3.0    1.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.1% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 36.5% 36.5% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
17-3 2.2% 31.8% 31.8% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.5
16-4 6.8% 25.3% 25.3% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 5.1
15-5 13.1% 22.1% 22.1% 12.7 0.0 1.2 1.5 0.2 10.2
14-6 17.7% 18.5% 18.5% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.6 14.4
13-7 18.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.2 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 16.1
12-8 17.0% 10.6% 10.6% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 15.2
11-9 12.1% 7.0% 7.0% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 11.2
10-10 7.3% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.0
9-11 3.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.1 0.0 3.1
8-12 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 13.0 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 67.7 32.3