Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#136
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#96
Pace70.0#170
Improvement+1.7#69

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#132
First Shot+1.3#141
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#206
Freethrows-2.0#298
Improvement+0.9#108

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+1.4#122
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#261
Layups/Dunks+0.2#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#87
Freethrows-2.2#304
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 14.3% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 71.6% 82.3% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 84.4% 75.1%
Conference Champion 15.5% 19.5% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.8% 2.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round11.9% 14.3% 10.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 48 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 265 @Evansville W 77-72 66%     1 - 0 +2.4 +3.5 -1.2
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.4 -2.4 +9.5
  Sun, Nov 23 111 Murray St. W 90-87 42%     2 - 1 +6.7 +10.7 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 24 59 George Washington L 79-92 23%     2 - 2 -3.5 +4.7 -8.0
  Tue, Nov 25 80 McNeese St. L 62-72 30%     2 - 3 -2.9 +7.8 -13.0
  Mon, Dec 1 110 UAB W 76-61 54%     3 - 3 +15.7 +8.0 +8.6
  Sun, Dec 7 90 Belmont L 77-78 45%    
  Wed, Dec 17 152 Kennesaw St. W 85-80 67%    
  Mon, Dec 29 8 @Houston L 58-79 3%    
  Fri, Jan 2 193 Louisiana Tech W 72-65 74%    
  Sun, Jan 4 126 Sam Houston St. W 79-77 59%    
  Thu, Jan 8 241 @UTEP W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 127 @New Mexico St. L 69-73 37%    
  Wed, Jan 14 193 @Louisiana Tech W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 255 Missouri St. W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 239 @Jacksonville St. W 69-66 61%    
  Wed, Jan 28 94 Liberty L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 128 Western Kentucky W 80-77 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 189 Florida International W 80-73 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 296 @Delaware W 76-70 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 152 @Kennesaw St. L 82-83 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 128 @Western Kentucky L 77-80 38%    
  Wed, Feb 18 126 @Sam Houston St. L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 296 Delaware W 79-67 86%    
  Thu, Feb 26 241 UTEP W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 127 New Mexico St. W 72-70 59%    
  Thu, Mar 5 189 @Florida International W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 255 @Missouri St. W 72-68 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.3 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.7 7.2 9.6 11.6 12.5 12.2 10.7 9.3 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 96.7% 1.9    1.7 0.2
17-3 86.4% 3.5    2.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 64.1% 4.3    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 36.1% 3.4    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 13.3% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.5 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 57.1% 51.0% 6.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.5%
19-1 0.6% 48.9% 48.4% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0%
18-2 1.9% 35.8% 35.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.3%
17-3 4.1% 32.3% 32.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.7 0.1%
16-4 6.6% 25.8% 25.8% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 4.9
15-5 9.3% 20.6% 20.6% 12.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4
14-6 10.7% 16.5% 16.5% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.9
13-7 12.2% 13.0% 13.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 10.6
12-8 12.5% 9.8% 9.8% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 11.2
11-9 11.6% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.0
10-10 9.6% 4.2% 4.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.2
9-11 7.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0
8-12 5.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.6
7-13 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-14 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.0 0.0%