Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#47
Pace69.7#180
Improvement+4.0#10

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#88
First Shot+4.6#59
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#242
Layup/Dunks+4.8#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#256
Freethrows+3.0#42
Improvement+1.2#83

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#248
Layups/Dunks+5.1#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#212
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement+2.8#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 31.9% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.8% 20.7% 8.4%
Average Seed 10.1 9.7 10.4
.500 or above 98.3% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 92.1% 87.7%
Conference Champion 13.9% 17.1% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.6% 7.9% 4.7%
First Round19.5% 27.5% 16.2%
Second Round7.2% 11.4% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Neutral) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 38 - 214 - 10
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 353 Canisius W 88-48 98%     1 - 0 +24.0 +17.9 +10.3
  Sat, Nov 8 272 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 94%     2 - 0 -3.1 +3.1 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 11 68 @Cincinnati L 62-74 39%     2 - 1 -0.6 -8.6 +9.6
  Sat, Nov 15 218 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 91%     3 - 1 +2.5 +16.2 -13.6
  Wed, Nov 19 83 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 45%     4 - 1 +15.9 -0.2 +15.3
  Sat, Nov 22 336 NC Central W 74-55 97%     5 - 1 +5.0 -0.4 +6.6
  Thu, Nov 27 85 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 59%     6 - 1 +11.3 +6.8 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 28 8 BYU L 79-83 16%     6 - 2 +15.3 +9.1 +6.4
  Tue, Dec 2 115 East Tennessee St. W 88-71 78%     7 - 2 +17.4 +10.9 +5.5
  Sat, Dec 6 26 Virginia L 70-76 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 343 North Florida W 91-68 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 100 Florida St. W 81-74 72%    
  Sat, Dec 20 98 Liberty W 75-69 73%    
  Wed, Dec 31 211 Fordham W 76-61 91%    
  Sat, Jan 3 259 @Loyola Chicago W 77-66 85%    
  Tue, Jan 6 62 George Washington W 81-79 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 135 @Duquesne W 79-75 63%    
  Fri, Jan 16 259 Loyola Chicago W 80-63 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 229 @La Salle W 75-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 184 @Saint Joseph's W 76-69 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 110 Rhode Island W 77-69 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 46 @Saint Louis L 73-79 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 111 St. Bonaventure W 74-66 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 70-76 29%    
  Sun, Feb 15 137 Davidson W 76-66 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 66 @George Mason L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 135 Duquesne W 82-72 81%    
  Tue, Feb 24 46 Saint Louis W 77-76 52%    
  Fri, Feb 27 62 @George Washington L 78-82 38%    
  Tue, Mar 3 104 @Richmond W 74-73 53%    
  Fri, Mar 6 43 Virginia Commonwealth L 73-74 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.0 2.8 1.0 0.2 13.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.2 5.7 1.6 0.2 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.8 6.0 1.5 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 6.4 1.8 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.2 2.1 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.7 0.2 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.4 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.7 9.3 12.6 15.0 15.9 14.2 10.9 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 94.1% 2.8    2.3 0.5
15-3 74.8% 5.0    2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 33.1% 3.6    1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1
13-5 8.0% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 7.5 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 96.1% 51.0% 45.1% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.0%
17-1 1.0% 89.3% 28.3% 60.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.0%
16-2 3.0% 78.1% 31.7% 46.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 67.9%
15-3 6.7% 59.6% 24.9% 34.7% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.7 46.2%
14-4 10.9% 45.6% 22.2% 23.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 0.1 5.9 30.1%
13-5 14.2% 30.6% 16.1% 14.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 0.2 9.9 17.3%
12-6 15.9% 18.1% 11.7% 6.4% 10.9 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.2 13.0 7.3%
11-7 15.0% 10.1% 8.2% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.3 13.5 2.0%
10-8 12.6% 5.4% 4.9% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.9 0.6%
9-9 9.3% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1 0.1%
8-10 5.7% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
7-11 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.3% 11.9% 10.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.6 5.2 10.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7 11.8%