Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 254
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 248
Pace 66.3 245
Improvement +2.2 99

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 235 C- F+ B- D+ C-
Defense C- 258 D+ C F+ A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 230 C 58% 165 -0.9 220
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 134 C 38% 177 +0.9 126
Three Pointers 41% 194 D+ 32% 267 -1.5 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 241 C- -1.3 217
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 225
Second Chance F 21.2% 357 C- 0.99 235 F+ 0.21 353
Turnovers B- 15.6% 99
Freethrows D+ 0.27 286 B- 74% 113 D+ 0.20 251
Total Offense C- -2.4 235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 C- 59% 222 -3.1 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 D+ 41% 277 +0.0 194
Three Pointers 37% 295 D+ 36% 288 +0.6 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 241 D+ -1.3 217
1st FG Attempt 1.08 279 D+ -2.5 261
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 120 C- 1.07 254 C 0.31 182
Turnovers F+ 12.9% 352
Freethrows A- 0.23 13 B+ 69% 31 A- 0.16 13
Total Defense C- -2.7 258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 195 17.9 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 211 0.13 47
Improvement +0.5 #152 +1.7 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 28% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 52% 63% 36%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four16% 15% 17%
First Round18% 21% 15%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 418 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 96 @Dayton L 71 - 77 11% -4  14% 0 - 1 C+ +2 B +6 C+ B+ C D+ -4 D D- D-
 Tue, Nov 11 353 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 71% +6  77% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 A+ F F D -6 D+ F+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 332 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 80% -1  38% 2 - 1 D- -13 F -18 F B+ F B +4 B C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 82 @George Washington L 52 - 89 9% -24  0% 2 - 2 F -27 F -22 F F D D+ -5 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 359 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 89% +8  97% 3 - 2 C- -4 D -4 C F C C+ +1 C+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 76 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 8% -11  0% 3 - 3 C +2 A+ +14 B B A+ F -13 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 323 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 58% +1  53% 4 - 3 C -0 C+ +2 B F D+ C -1 C+ D F
 Tue, Dec 9 200 Buffalo L 79 - 83 52% +1  57% 4 - 4 D -10 C+ +3 B- C C+ F -12 F C+ D+
 Fri, Dec 12 340 Army L 60 - 63 83% -5  12% 4 - 5 F -18 F -20 F F B C+ +2 B B D
 Sun, Dec 21 62 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  1% 4 - 6 D- -13 D -4 D C- D+ D- -8 F D F
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 86% +18  98% 5 - 6 A- +17 B+ +8 D+ A+ B+ A- +9 C A- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 342 Maine W 69 - 62 83% +6  79% 6 - 6 1 - 0 D -8 D+ -4 D+ F A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 330 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 80% -3  13% 7 - 6 2 - 0 D- -13 C+ +3 A- F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 350 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 67% -1  24% 7 - 7 2 - 1 F+ -15 D+ -4 B- F D- F+ -11 F F C
 Mon, Jan 19 361 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 79% +9  81% 8 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +4 B- +5 C+ D- A- C+ +2 C- C F
 Thu, Jan 22 310 NJIT W 87 - 74 74% +14  98% 9 - 7 4 - 1 C +1 B+ +7 B D A+ D -6 D- D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 316 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 75% +12  98% 10 - 7 5 - 1 B +11 C +1 C- F+ C- A +11 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 227 @Vermont L 55 - 64 33% -2  22% 10 - 8 5 - 2 D -9 F -16 F D- B B +6 C A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 324 @Albany W 68 - 65 58% -3  21% 11 - 8 6 - 2 C- -4 D -4 B- F C+ C +0 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 361 Binghamton W 79 - 62 90% +11  99% 12 - 8 7 - 2 C- -3 C- -1 D F A+ C -1 C A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 342 @Maine W 78 - 62 65% +12  80% 13 - 8 8 - 2 B- +7 B- +5 D+ F+ A+ B- +2 B C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 330 @New Hampshire W 73 - 70 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 227 Vermont W 71 - 70 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Albany W 76 - 68 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 350 Bryant W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 @Umass Lowell W 76 - 75 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 310 @NJIT W 72 - 71 52%
Totals 17 - 10 12 - 4 -5 F -2 C C- C- D+ -3 D+ B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C D+ C- 37% 23% 41% C- C- F C- F+ B- D+ B- D+ C- C- D+ D+ D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ C+ C- C F+ A- B+ A-
1.05 58% 38% 32% -1 0 0.99 21% 1.0 .21 16% .27 74% .20 1.12 59% 41% 36% +2 0 1.08 29% 1.1 .31 13% .23 69% .19
Nov
8		 Dayton B D C B+ C+ 28% 26% 46% D+ C+ B B B+ C F A+ F+ D+ F D+ B+ D- 39% 24% 37% A D B+ F D- D- C D D+
1.07 50% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16 1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33
Nov
11		 Morgan St. D+ A A A A+ 45% 5% 50% B A+ F F F F C D D+ D A A+ F C- 45% 22% 33% F D+ D- D- F+ F A+ D+ A+
1.13 75% 50% 41% +14 +3 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 25% .45 67% .30 1.10 42% 23% 47% -4 0 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
16		 Wagner F D C F F 35% 27% 38% F F C+ A+ B+ F A+ D A+ B A- F A+ B+ 50% 24% 26% D+ B B D C+ C+ C+ A- B-
0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38 0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16
Nov
19		 George Washington F B- F F F 39% 20% 41% C F F C- F D B- F C- D+ D A+ F F 47% 7% 47% C- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ A- A+
0.73 63% 0% 20% -14 0 0.73 15% 1.0 .15 20% .32 61% .19 1.25 67% 25% 48% +13 +2 1.33 26% 0.8 .19 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
29		 Delaware St. D B F B+ C 47% 13% 40% B- C D F F C F D F C+ C- A- B C 35% 52% 13% A+ C+ C C- C- F A+ F A
1.07 68% 14% 38% +4 +2 1.13 27% 0.7 .18 18% .17 67% .11 0.86 53% 29% 29% -8 -4 0.78 25% 0.8 .20 14% .16 78% .12
Dec
3		 Georgetown A+ B- A+ C- B+ 34% 29% 38% C- B C+ A B A+ C- A C+ F F A+ F F 42% 18% 40% D- F A+ F D+ F A+ A- A+
1.21 58% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.2 .36 10% .27 81% .22 1.34 71% 20% 48% +11 +1 1.25 24% 1.7 .41 9% .16 70% .11
Dec
6		 Bucknell C+ B- B A+ B+ 37% 28% 35% D+ B F D+ F D+ D+ A C C C- A+ B+ C+ 38% 20% 42% C+ C+ F B+ D F D+ A- C
1.13 65% 46% 44% +10 -1 1.20 23% 1.0 .23 19% .29 80% .23 1.02 58% 20% 29% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.9 .33 14% .31 71% .22
Dec
9		 Buffalo C+ C+ A+ C+ B+ 30% 23% 47% F+ B- D- A- C C+ F A+ F+ F F+ F F F 50% 21% 29% C- F D A- C+ D+ B- F D
1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14 1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28
Dec
12		 Army F B D- F F 28% 25% 47% D- F F F F B F+ F F C+ A+ A+ D- A- 55% 4% 40% F B B B+ B D F F F
0.91 67% 31% 28% -4 -1 0.92 20% 0.8 .15 12% .28 38% .10 0.95 38% 0% 37% -11 +3 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 15% .36 80% .29
Dec
21		 South Florida D C- B F D+ 35% 35% 30% D- D D- B+ C- D+ D A- C- D- C- A+ F F+ 54% 4% 42% D- F B+ F D F A+ C+ A
0.94 53% 42% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 21% .28 75% .21 1.29 58% 0% 42% +4 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 11% .28 72% .20
Dec
29		 Coppin St. B+ F C+ A+ D- 43% 10% 47% B D+ C- A+ A+ B+ C F F A- D A+ C+ C+ 38% 19% 42% F+ C A+ F A- D- A- B- A-
1.29 45% 40% 46% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.9 .68 14% .37 57% .21 0.82 60% 0% 32% -8 0 0.87 15% 1.2 .18 19% .26 67% .17
Jan
8		 Maine D+ B- F A D+ 51% 29% 20% C- D+ F+ F F A+ A B- A D+ A F A+ B- 42% 25% 33% C B- F+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.07 64% 14% 40% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 12% .41 74% .30 0.96 45% 62% 18% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 14% .20 55% .11
Jan
10		 New Hampshire C+ C+ A- A+ A- 43% 21% 36% C A- F F F A+ D- B+ D F F+ F C+ F 62% 6% 32% F F F D- F D- B+ A+ A+
1.19 61% 45% 42% +7 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 6% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 67% 31% +4 +4 1.18 35% 1.1 .39 16% .21 45% .09
Jan
15		 Bryant D+ B F+ B+ B- 31% 14% 55% D B- F F+ F D- B+ A+ A F+ F C+ D- F 52% 10% 38% F F F D+ F C B A B+
1.08 63% 29% 39% +5 0 1.12 16% 0.8 .13 16% .35 85% .30 1.15 70% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.21 38% 1.1 .41 22% .22 67% .15
Jan
19		 Binghamton B- B- B+ B+ B- 47% 25% 28% D+ C+ F A+ D- A- F B F C+ D+ A C- D+ 41% 29% 31% B C- C C- C F A A+ A+
1.23 64% 46% 40% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.8 .26 8% .21 75% .15 0.95 60% 29% 33% -2 -1 0.96 19% 0.9 .17 13% .27 47% .13
Jan
22		 NJIT B+ A+ A F A- 36% 26% 38% D- B F A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ D F+ A D F+ 42% 26% 32% D+ D- F B+ D+ F+ F+ A+ B-
1.24 78% 46% 26% +5 -1 1.10 19% 1.5 .29 9% .47 77% .36 1.06 64% 29% 35% 0 -1 1.02 35% 0.8 .28 14% .38 52% .20
Jan
24		 Umass Lowell C C+ C- C- C- 50% 21% 29% C C- F C+ F+ C- A- A+ A+ A A F A+ A 40% 19% 42% C- A- A- A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+
1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33 0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10
Jan
29		 Vermont F C F F F 26% 21% 53% C- F F A+ D- B B C- B- B A+ F D C- 27% 13% 60% C C A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D
0.86 58% 20% 20% -15 -1 0.70 14% 1.4 .19 11% .37 71% .26 1.00 42% 67% 37% +2 0 1.07 15% 0.6 .09 14% .40 59% .24
Jan
31		 Albany D D- A+ A+ C+ 54% 12% 34% A- B- F F F C+ A+ B+ A+ C C A B- C+ 39% 14% 47% D+ C+ D- F F C+ A- A+ A
1.07 50% 60% 43% +3 +2 1.12 19% 0.0 .00 14% .50 81% .41 1.03 58% 29% 30% -4 +1 0.96 35% 1.2 .41 21% .16 50% .08
Feb
5		 Binghamton C- F+ B- B- D- 42% 16% 42% C D D- F F A+ C- B- C C A F A D+ 28% 32% 40% A+ C A+ A+ A+ F B+ F C+
1.19 50% 44% 38% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.8 .20 5% .30 74% .22 0.94 43% 63% 25% -2 -2 0.94 6% 0.0 .00 12% .31 83% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Maine B- C A+ F C- 42% 29% 29% D D+ D- D F+ A+ B A+ A B- A A- B A- 42% 15% 44% D- B A- F C+ F F D F
1.15 59% 53% 20% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.9 .29 9% .36 86% .31 0.92 45% 29% 29% -10 +1 0.83 14% 1.4 .19 15% .43 68% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.5 19.5 22.5 7.8 52.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 13.7 11.6 0.6 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.7 7.9 0.4 18.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 0.4 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 2.5 10.8 24.0 31.4 23.1 7.8 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 7.8    7.8
13-3 97.3% 22.5    17.2 5.3
12-4 62.1% 19.5    5.1 10.9 3.5
11-5 10.3% 2.5    0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.3% 52.3 30.2 17.2 4.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 7.8% 36.4% 36.4% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.6 5.0
13-3 23.1% 31.8% 31.8% 15.9 0.0 0.7 6.6 15.8
12-4 31.4% 26.3% 26.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 7.9 23.1
11-5 24.0% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.1 5.2 18.8
10-6 10.8% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9 8.8
9-7 2.5% 19.2% 19.2% 16.0 0.5 2.0
8-8 0.3% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 26.2% 26.2% 0.0% 15.9 73.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 15.1 0.5 14.1 64.0 21.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 0.1%