Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#248
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#248
Pace68.6#166
Improvement+3.6#46

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#153
First Shot+2.9#96
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#308
Layup/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#56
Freethrows+0.0#171
Improvement+1.8#101

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#330
First Shot-1.7#230
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#360
Layups/Dunks-3.6#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#95
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+1.9#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.6% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 93.8% 100.0% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 3.5%
First Round5.9% 7.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 415 - 916 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 14   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -9.6 -13.7 +4.8
  Nov 15, 2024 217   Fordham W 78-76 53%     1 - 1 -3.7 -3.6 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2024 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 59%     1 - 2 -10.1 +8.7 -18.8
  Nov 22, 2024 313   Army W 80-79 74%     2 - 2 -10.8 -0.7 -10.0
  Nov 26, 2024 97   @ Virginia L 65-74 12%     2 - 3 -0.8 +3.6 -5.7
  Nov 29, 2024 356   Le Moyne L 77-81 87%     2 - 4 -20.8 -11.5 -9.0
  Dec 06, 2024 277   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 45%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -0.7 +1.0 -1.6
  Dec 08, 2024 242   Marist L 75-82 59%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -14.3 +5.0 -19.6
  Dec 18, 2024 347   @ Wagner W 80-66 68%     4 - 5 +4.4 +14.0 -8.2
  Dec 21, 2024 239   @ Presbyterian W 86-81 OT 38%     5 - 5 +3.4 +8.0 -4.9
  Jan 03, 2025 237   @ Siena L 95-103 2OT 37%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -9.6 +2.0 -9.9
  Jan 05, 2025 307   @ Rider W 80-79 54%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -4.9 +5.9 -10.8
  Jan 10, 2025 261   Mount St. Mary's L 66-75 63%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -17.2 -5.6 -12.2
  Jan 12, 2025 206   @ Merrimack L 62-69 31%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -6.7 -1.6 -5.7
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Niagara W 72-65 76%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -5.3 +4.8 -8.9
  Jan 23, 2025 331   Fairfield L 84-87 OT 78%     7 - 9 3 - 5 -16.2 +0.6 -16.7
  Jan 25, 2025 261   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-64 42%     8 - 9 4 - 5 +7.2 +6.9 +1.1
  Jan 31, 2025 250   Iona W 76-55 61%     9 - 9 5 - 5 +13.3 +8.2 +6.6
  Feb 02, 2025 259   @ Sacred Heart L 72-74 41%     9 - 10 5 - 6 -4.7 -9.2 +4.7
  Feb 08, 2025 277   St. Peter's W 84-83 OT 66%     10 - 10 6 - 6 -8.1 +11.6 -19.7
  Feb 14, 2025 206   Merrimack W 79-75 51%     11 - 10 7 - 6 -1.1 +11.4 -12.3
  Feb 16, 2025 331   @ Fairfield W 80-67 61%     12 - 10 8 - 6 +5.2 +8.7 -2.6
  Feb 21, 2025 250   @ Iona L 60-65 40%     12 - 11 8 - 7 -7.2 -8.1 +0.7
  Feb 23, 2025 196   Quinnipiac L 71-74 49%     12 - 12 8 - 8 -7.7 -2.3 -5.3
  Feb 28, 2025 355   @ Canisius W 77-72 73%     13 - 12 9 - 8 -6.2 +0.2 -6.1
  Mar 02, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 85-70 58%     14 - 12 10 - 8 +8.1 +21.5 -11.1
  Mar 06, 2025 259   Sacred Heart W 82-79 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 237   Siena W 76-74 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 3.0 31.6 34.6 4th
5th 18.1 5.9 24.0 5th
6th 25.7 25.7 6th
7th 15.8 15.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 15.8 46.8 37.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 37.5% 11.3% 11.3% 15.8 0.0 1.0 3.2 33.3
11-9 46.8% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.1 2.9 43.8
10-10 15.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 15.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 1.1 6.8 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 15.8 0.5 22.9 76.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.9%
Lose Out 6.2%