Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#291
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#265
Pace69.8#141
Improvement+0.0#191

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#187
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#314
Layup/Dunks-2.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#62
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement+0.4#163

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#349
First Shot-2.8#264
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#362
Layups/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#104
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement-0.5#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 35.7% 47.9% 21.9%
.500 or above in Conference 42.9% 56.9% 26.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.8% 4.1%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 1.3%
First Round1.9% 2.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 5
Quad 413 - 1114 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -11.0 -15.6 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 199   Fordham W 78-76 38%     1 - 1 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2024 315   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 48%     1 - 2 -9.7 +7.3 -17.1
  Nov 22, 2024 298   Army W 80-79 61%     2 - 2 -9.1 +0.7 -9.9
  Nov 26, 2024 103   @ Virginia L 65-74 10%     2 - 3 -2.4 +5.5 -9.2
  Nov 29, 2024 352   Le Moyne L 77-81 79%     2 - 4 -19.7 -9.2 -10.3
  Dec 06, 2024 240   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 31%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +0.8 +3.5 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2024 210   Marist L 75-82 42%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -12.2 +6.5 -18.9
  Dec 18, 2024 342   @ Wagner W 80-66 57%     4 - 5 +4.7 +13.4 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 277   @ Presbyterian W 86-81 OT 38%     5 - 5 +0.9 +5.8 -5.2
  Jan 03, 2025 261   @ Siena L 95-103 2OT 34%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -11.2 +2.2 -11.8
  Jan 05, 2025 306   @ Rider W 80-79 44%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -4.7 +7.0 -11.6
  Jan 10, 2025 289   Mount St. Mary's L 66-75 60%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -18.8 -5.2 -14.2
  Jan 12, 2025 182   @ Merrimack L 62-69 20%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -5.4 -0.6 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 314   Niagara W 72-65 66%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -4.6 +4.6 -8.1
  Jan 23, 2025 320   Fairfield L 84-87 OT 67%     7 - 9 3 - 5 -14.9 -0.2 -14.6
  Jan 25, 2025 289   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-64 40%     8 - 9 4 - 5 +5.2 +7.2 -1.2
  Jan 31, 2025 253   Iona W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 02, 2025 284   @ Sacred Heart L 79-82 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 240   St. Peter's L 66-67 52%    
  Feb 14, 2025 182   Merrimack L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 16, 2025 320   @ Fairfield L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 21, 2025 253   @ Iona L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 23, 2025 180   Quinnipiac L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 28, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 79-76 60%    
  Mar 02, 2025 314   @ Niagara L 73-74 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 284   Sacred Heart W 82-80 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 261   Siena W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.9 5.6 1.7 0.3 15.2 4th
5th 1.1 6.4 5.5 1.2 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.9 7.2 1.6 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 8.6 2.6 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.5 7.1 4.5 0.3 12.4 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 6.2 0.8 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.0 1.7 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.4 2.7 2.1 0.1 5.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 3.2 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
Total 0.3 2.1 5.7 11.3 17.7 19.9 18.2 13.2 7.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.9% 17.4% 17.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-7 2.8% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.6
12-8 7.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 7.1
11-9 13.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 12.6
10-10 18.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 17.6
9-11 19.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 19.6
8-12 17.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.6
7-13 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.2
6-14 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.4 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%