Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#330
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#277
Pace74.5#48
Improvement-1.5#249

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#332
First Shot-2.5#241
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#349
Layup/Dunks+3.5#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#211
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement-2.6#315

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#297
First Shot-4.5#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#160
Layups/Dunks-0.3#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#355
Freethrows+1.4#85
Improvement+1.1#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 8.5% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.2% 10.9% 25.7%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 16.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 48 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 285   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 28%     1 - 0 -3.4 +4.7 -8.2
  Nov 11, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 +1.0 -0.7 +2.5
  Nov 14, 2024 156   Bryant L 64-87 22%     1 - 2 -25.3 -16.0 -6.9
  Nov 19, 2024 212   @ Vermont L 67-78 16%     1 - 3 -11.0 +3.1 -14.9
  Nov 22, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 82-73 64%     2 - 3 -5.1 +0.5 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 322   N.C. A&T W 82-81 56%     3 - 3 -11.1 -7.0 -4.2
  Dec 01, 2024 48   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -9.5 -3.3 -6.3
  Dec 07, 2024 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 55-65 5%     3 - 5 -1.9 -8.3 +5.5
  Dec 19, 2024 34   @ Georgia L 49-100 2%     3 - 6 -35.5 -13.1 -22.8
  Dec 29, 2024 110   @ Temple L 71-91 7%     3 - 7 -14.1 -8.2 -3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 151   @ Miami (OH) L 79-93 10%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -10.5 +6.3 -16.5
  Jan 07, 2025 146   Ohio L 79-88 20%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -10.6 -4.9 -4.6
  Jan 10, 2025 160   Kent St. L 49-68 22%     3 - 10 0 - 3 -21.5 -19.6 -2.5
  Jan 14, 2025 288   @ Bowling Green L 61-79 28%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -22.5 -13.3 -9.3
  Jan 18, 2025 304   @ Western Michigan W 85-76 30%     4 - 11 1 - 4 +3.8 -2.9 +5.5
  Jan 21, 2025 123   Akron L 74-84 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 314   @ Eastern Michigan L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 225   Central Michigan L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 249   Ball St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 04, 2025 196   @ Toledo L 75-87 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 283   Georgia St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 11, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 288   Bowling Green L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 249   @ Ball St. L 71-79 21%    
  Feb 25, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 66-76 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 196   Toledo L 78-84 29%    
  Mar 04, 2025 151   Miami (OH) L 71-80 22%    
  Mar 07, 2025 123   @ Akron L 71-87 7%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 2.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.7 4.7 1.6 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.5 3.9 7.5 2.8 0.3 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 6.0 10.3 4.6 0.6 22.2 10th
11th 0.2 2.7 9.7 12.9 5.6 0.8 0.0 31.8 11th
12th 1.7 4.8 4.0 1.5 0.2 12.2 12th
Total 1.9 7.5 14.4 20.9 20.1 15.9 10.4 5.8 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.2
8-10 5.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 20.1% 20.1
4-14 20.9% 20.9
3-15 14.4% 14.4
2-16 7.5% 7.5
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%