Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#331
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Pace72.6#87
Improvement-0.7#270

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#288
First Shot-0.1#184
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#350
Layup/Dunks+5.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#224
Freethrows-0.9#234
Improvement-1.1#321

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#344
First Shot-4.6#308
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#265
Layups/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#308
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+0.3#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 2.7% 3.9% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 12.8% 15.3% 8.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 33.2% 29.2% 39.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 303   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 32%     1 - 0 -3.9 +3.5 -7.4
  Nov 11, 2024 53   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 3%     1 - 1 +3.3 +3.4 +0.7
  Nov 14, 2024 160   Bryant L 64-87 26%     1 - 2 -26.0 -16.5 -7.2
  Nov 19, 2024 151   @ Vermont L 67-78 11%     1 - 3 -7.6 +3.7 -12.1
  Nov 22, 2024 332   Morgan St. W 81-78 62%    
  Nov 25, 2024 285   N.C. A&T L 79-80 48%    
  Dec 01, 2024 32   @ Penn St. L 68-93 1%    
  Dec 07, 2024 115   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 19, 2024 54   @ Georgia L 65-87 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 114   @ Temple L 66-82 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 228   @ Miami (OH) L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 07, 2025 158   Ohio L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 123   Kent St. L 67-77 20%    
  Jan 14, 2025 262   @ Bowling Green L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 323   @ Western Michigan L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 140   Akron L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 204   Central Michigan L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 280   Ball St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 137   @ Toledo L 72-87 10%    
  Feb 11, 2025 325   @ Northern Illinois L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   Bowling Green L 76-77 44%    
  Feb 18, 2025 323   Western Michigan W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 280   @ Ball St. L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 204   @ Central Michigan L 66-77 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 137   Toledo L 75-84 23%    
  Mar 04, 2025 228   Miami (OH) L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 07, 2025 140   @ Akron L 68-82 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.2 0.2 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.9 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 15.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 5.3 7.2 4.0 0.8 0.0 19.2 11th
12th 1.5 4.5 7.2 6.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 22.5 12th
Total 1.5 4.7 8.9 12.1 14.1 14.4 13.0 10.8 7.9 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0
15-3 76.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 42.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.2% 9.3% 9.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.0
10-8 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 5.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.4
8-10 7.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.9
7-11 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
6-12 13.0% 13.0
5-13 14.4% 14.4
4-14 14.1% 14.1
3-15 12.1% 12.1
2-16 8.9% 8.9
1-17 4.7% 4.7
0-18 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%