North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#155
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#147
Pace69.3#190
Improvement+1.0#115

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#217
First Shot-5.3#318
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#25
Layup/Dunks-4.3#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#243
Freethrows-1.1#241
Improvement-0.4#216

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#124
First Shot-3.7#299
After Offensive Rebounds+5.2#3
Layups/Dunks-3.7#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement+1.4#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 27.7% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 92.5% 95.6% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 93.3% 89.4%
Conference Champion 34.8% 38.0% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.5%
First Round25.2% 27.3% 21.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 64 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 165 @Oregon St. L 65-67 40%     0 - 1 +0.4 -3.1 +3.4
  Wed, Nov 5 170 @UC Davis L 68-80 41%     0 - 2 -10.0 -0.9 -9.3
  Tue, Nov 11 261 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 78%     1 - 2 +13.6 +1.8 +8.9
  Mon, Nov 17 143 Southern Illinois W 92-85 56%     2 - 2 +5.2 +8.9 -4.5
  Wed, Nov 26 239 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 66%     3 - 2 +8.6 -8.5 +18.8
  Fri, Nov 28 149 @Arkansas St. L 80-85 OT 36%     3 - 3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.0
  Wed, Dec 3 206 @Montana W 81-72 48%     4 - 3 +9.3 +7.1 +2.2
  Sat, Dec 6 251 Northern Arizona W 69-68 77%     5 - 3 -7.0 -8.3 +1.2
  Thu, Dec 11 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-72 65%    
  Sat, Dec 13 124 @Drake L 65-71 30%    
  Sun, Dec 21 120 UC Irvine L 66-69 38%    
  Wed, Dec 31 270 South Dakota W 82-74 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 301 Oral Roberts W 80-70 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 346 @UMKC W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 233 @Nebraska Omaha W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 153 South Dakota St. W 73-70 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 169 St. Thomas W 74-70 63%    
  Thu, Jan 22 294 @Denver W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 301 @Oral Roberts W 77-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 270 @South Dakota W 79-77 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 294 Denver W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 233 Nebraska Omaha W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 337 @North Dakota W 76-68 75%    
  Wed, Feb 18 153 @South Dakota St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 346 UMKC W 79-64 91%    
  Thu, Feb 26 169 @St. Thomas L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Feb 28 337 North Dakota W 79-65 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.6 10.6 8.6 3.9 1.1 34.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 9.0 7.6 2.7 0.3 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.5 4.3 0.9 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 5.1 2.4 0.2 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.3 7.2 10.8 14.4 16.3 16.2 13.3 8.9 3.9 1.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
14-2 96.2% 8.6    7.6 0.9
13-3 79.2% 10.6    7.2 3.1 0.2
12-4 47.0% 7.6    3.3 3.4 0.9 0.0
11-5 17.0% 2.8    0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 23.7 8.7 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 52.6% 52.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5
15-1 3.9% 49.4% 49.4% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.0
14-2 8.9% 44.0% 44.0% 13.7 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.0
13-3 13.3% 35.8% 35.8% 14.1 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.4 0.1 8.6
12-4 16.2% 30.4% 30.4% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.2 11.2
11-5 16.3% 25.0% 25.0% 14.7 0.2 1.3 2.2 0.5 12.2
10-6 14.4% 18.2% 18.2% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.6 11.8
9-7 10.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 9.3
8-8 7.2% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 6.3
7-9 4.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.9
6-10 2.2% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
5-11 1.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-12 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 8.8 8.8 3.1 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 3.0 33.3 60.6 3.0