New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#84
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#77
Pace78.8#15
Improvement+3.2#18

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+2.6#103
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#173
Layup/Dunks+4.1#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+4.1#3

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#68
First Shot+2.8#81
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#122
Layups/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#346
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement-0.8#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 17.6% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 7.4% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.2 10.9
.500 or above 88.8% 95.9% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 83.0% 74.3%
Conference Champion 9.7% 13.4% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four1.9% 3.5% 1.4%
First Round10.5% 15.6% 9.0%
Second Round3.2% 5.5% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 24 - 55 - 9
Quad 36 - 312 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 300 East Texas A&M W 76-54 94%     1 - 0 +11.3 -6.8 +16.2
  Sat, Nov 8 191 Texas Arlington W 74-56 86%     2 - 0 +13.1 -1.5 +14.1
  Tue, Nov 11 258 UC Riverside W 82-68 91%     3 - 0 +5.7 +8.2 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 127 @New Mexico St. L 68-76 55%     3 - 1 -2.7 +2.4 -5.6
  Thu, Nov 20 48 Nebraska L 72-84 34%     3 - 2 -1.2 -5.8 +6.2
  Fri, Nov 21 78 Mississippi St. W 80-78 47%     4 - 2 +9.3 +7.5 +1.7
  Wed, Nov 26 276 Alabama St. W 93-87 92%     5 - 2 -3.0 +11.4 -14.6
  Sat, Dec 6 75 Santa Clara W 98-71 57%     6 - 2 +31.6 +24.0 +7.1
  Wed, Dec 10 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-82 23%    
  Sun, Dec 14 174 Florida Gulf Coast W 87-76 84%    
  Sat, Dec 20 182 San Jose St. W 80-69 85%    
  Tue, Dec 30 52 @Boise St. L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 3 107 Wyoming W 81-76 69%    
  Tue, Jan 6 72 @Colorado St. L 76-80 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 331 @Air Force W 79-65 90%    
  Tue, Jan 13 99 Grand Canyon W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 56 @San Diego St. L 75-82 28%    
  Wed, Jan 21 183 Fresno St. W 85-74 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 106 Nevada W 79-74 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 132 @UNLV W 86-84 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 182 @San Jose St. W 77-72 68%    
  Wed, Feb 4 51 Utah St. L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 52 Boise St. L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 99 @Grand Canyon L 75-77 44%    
  Tue, Feb 17 331 Air Force W 82-62 96%    
  Sat, Feb 21 183 @Fresno St. W 82-77 68%    
  Tue, Feb 24 106 @Nevada L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 56 San Diego St. L 78-79 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 72 Colorado St. W 79-77 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 @Utah St. L 75-82 27%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.1 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.3 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.7 4.7 1.0 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.0 1.1 0.1 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.6 9.1 11.7 13.5 13.6 12.6 9.8 7.2 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.3% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 89.5% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 65.7% 2.9    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.3% 2.5    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 91.0% 33.7% 57.3% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4%
18-2 0.9% 70.5% 32.8% 37.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 56.1%
17-3 2.3% 60.0% 25.8% 34.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 46.1%
16-4 4.4% 41.1% 24.4% 16.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.1 2.6 22.1%
15-5 7.2% 26.6% 18.2% 8.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.1 5.3 10.3%
14-6 9.8% 18.8% 16.0% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 8.0 3.3%
13-7 12.6% 11.7% 10.7% 1.0% 11.3 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.1 1.1%
12-8 13.6% 7.1% 6.8% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 12.6 0.3%
11-9 13.5% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.8 0.1%
10-10 11.7% 2.6% 2.6% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.4
9-11 9.1% 1.6% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0
8-12 6.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
7-13 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-14 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.6% 8.5% 3.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 6.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4 3.4%