Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#157
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 9.3% 9.5% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 24.9% 25.4% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 42.1% 42.8% 14.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.4% 71.2% 40.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.9% 69.7% 39.5%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.4
.500 or above 84.6% 85.4% 53.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 67.8% 40.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 5.8%
First Four4.9% 4.8% 7.7%
First Round68.2% 69.0% 37.2%
Second Round50.3% 51.0% 23.3%
Sweet Sixteen24.6% 25.0% 7.9%
Elite Eight11.0% 11.2% 2.8%
Final Four4.6% 4.7% 1.0%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 203   Campbell W 80-60 97%    
  Nov 07, 2025 316   Northern Illinois W 87-60 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 244   Ball St. W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 17, 2025 240   SIU Edwardsville W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 21, 2025 9   BYU L 74-77 39%    
  Nov 27, 2025 59   Providence W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 03, 2025 71   Northwestern W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 06, 2025 43   Marquette W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 10, 2025 60   @ Nebraska W 75-72 59%    
  Dec 19, 2025 39   Villanova W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 22, 2025 299   Central Michigan W 84-58 99%    
  Dec 30, 2025 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-63 96%    
  Jan 03, 2026 2   Purdue L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 06, 2026 14   UCLA W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 10, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 13, 2026 87   @ Minnesota W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 17, 2026 81   Rutgers W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 22, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 25, 2026 29   USC W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 28, 2026 87   Minnesota W 73-61 84%    
  Jan 31, 2026 27   Ohio St. W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 07, 2026 34   @ Indiana L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 10, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 13, 2026 21   Michigan St. W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 17, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 22, 2026 32   Iowa W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 25, 2026 28   @ Oregon L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 48   @ Washington W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 04, 2026 40   Maryland W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 07, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 67-78 18%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.6 1.3 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 3.8 1.3 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.0 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.4 3.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.3 10.7 11.2 11.2 10.0 8.7 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 89.2% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
17-3 59.2% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 27.7% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 6.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.6% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.4% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.4 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.4% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.7% 99.9% 8.9% 91.0% 4.2 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 10.0% 99.6% 6.1% 93.6% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 11.2% 98.1% 3.3% 94.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.1%
11-9 11.2% 92.8% 1.3% 91.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 92.7%
10-10 10.7% 79.5% 1.1% 78.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.2 79.3%
9-11 9.3% 50.3% 0.6% 49.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.0 4.6 50.0%
8-12 7.8% 21.0% 0.2% 20.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 6.1 20.8%
7-13 6.1% 4.9% 0.2% 4.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 4.7%
6-14 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.3%
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 5.8 3.6 5.6 7.6 8.1 8.8 8.4 8.0 6.7 5.4 5.0 3.0 0.2 0.0 29.6 68.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 79.9 20.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0