Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#18
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#14
Pace68.8#176
Improvement+2.8#61

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#12
First Shot+9.8#7
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks+1.4#136
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#25
Freethrows+5.4#1
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#42
First Shot+5.3#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#127
Layups/Dunks+3.9#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#41
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement+2.9#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.6% 4.2% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.8% 14.6% 5.2%
Top 4 Seed 41.3% 52.3% 30.7%
Top 6 Seed 76.7% 86.2% 67.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.9% 99.8% 98.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.8% 97.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.5 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.9% 93.6%
Conference Champion 8.7% 12.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.1% 1.1%
First Round98.6% 99.8% 97.4%
Second Round77.1% 82.0% 72.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 44.9% 34.5%
Elite Eight16.9% 20.0% 13.8%
Final Four6.9% 8.3% 5.6%
Championship Game2.6% 3.2% 2.1%
National Champion1.1% 1.5% 0.7%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 8
Quad 28 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +12.2 +7.2 +6.1
  Nov 07, 2024 176   Montana St. W 79-67 95%     2 - 0 +8.6 +10.4 -1.0
  Nov 10, 2024 122   Appalachian St. W 87-56 92%     3 - 0 +30.9 +18.0 +13.2
  Nov 15, 2024 13   Arizona W 103-88 56%     4 - 0 +29.3 +21.5 +5.6
  Nov 18, 2024 239   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 97%     5 - 0 -4.1 +10.1 -14.2
  Nov 22, 2024 71   Central Florida W 86-70 78%     6 - 0 +23.8 +7.9 +14.3
  Nov 24, 2024 40   Pittsburgh W 81-75 65%     7 - 0 +17.8 +14.3 +3.6
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 74-53 99%     8 - 0 +3.6 +1.5 +3.3
  Dec 03, 2024 11   Michigan L 64-67 55%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +11.5 -0.9 +12.3
  Dec 07, 2024 20   @ Marquette L 74-88 40%     8 - 2 +4.3 +15.3 -11.9
  Dec 10, 2024 9   @ Illinois L 80-86 29%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +15.5 +13.7 +2.1
  Dec 14, 2024 83   Butler W 83-74 81%     9 - 3 +15.7 +14.7 +1.3
  Dec 22, 2024 331   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +9.6 +1.3 +9.3
  Jan 03, 2025 52   Iowa W 116-85 78%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +38.9 +33.2 +3.3
  Jan 06, 2025 67   @ Rutgers W 75-63 68%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +23.0 +7.7 +15.4
  Jan 10, 2025 98   Minnesota W 80-59 89%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +23.3 +14.3 +10.5
  Jan 14, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 70-68 72%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +11.8 +4.4 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 61   @ USC W 84-69 65%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +26.8 +17.2 +9.7
  Jan 21, 2025 31   @ UCLA W 71-70 49%    
  Jan 26, 2025 53   Nebraska W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 25   @ Maryland L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 55   @ Northwestern W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 56   Indiana W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 52   @ Iowa W 85-83 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 10   @ Purdue L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 18, 2025 9   Illinois L 79-80 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 28   Oregon W 78-73 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 94   Washington W 81-68 88%    
  Mar 02, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 73-77 35%    
  Mar 05, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 73-65 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 48   Penn St. W 84-76 77%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.8 1.8 0.3 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.3 6.6 2.5 0.2 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.4 8.2 3.4 0.2 16.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 9.4 4.6 0.4 17.3 4th
5th 1.5 7.7 5.2 0.7 15.1 5th
6th 0.3 4.3 5.3 1.0 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.0 1.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 1.9 0.1 4.4 8th
9th 0.7 1.7 0.3 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.7 6.2 12.1 17.6 20.5 18.2 12.9 6.5 2.0 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 88.2% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.1
16-4 58.0% 3.8    1.6 1.6 0.6 0.0
15-5 19.0% 2.5    0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 3.4 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.5% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.5 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.2 0.6 2.3 5.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 18.2% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.2 0.2 0.9 3.8 6.5 4.9 1.7 0.2 100.0%
13-7 20.5% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 6.9 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 17.6% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.4 5.7 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 12.1% 99.4% 4.0% 95.4% 6.8 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
10-10 6.2% 97.2% 3.9% 93.3% 7.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 97.1%
9-11 2.7% 89.8% 0.8% 89.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 89.8%
8-12 0.9% 47.1% 47.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 47.1%
7-13 0.2% 0.1 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.9% 9.9% 89.0% 5.0 2.6 7.2 13.3 18.2 19.2 16.2 11.2 5.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 1.1 98.7%