Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   8 - 0 1 - 0 28 - 3 18 - 2 +26.4      +11.9 4 +14.5 1 78.0 23 +27.5 4 +14.7 7
7 Purdue 99.7%   2   8 - 1 1 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 5 +20.3      +13.4 1 +6.9 25 63.7 321 +23.5 7 +20.7 6
12 Michigan St. 99.2%   3   8 - 1 1 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.5      +7.4 42 +11.1 4 65.7 282 +22.4 8 +26.8 2
15 Illinois 96.9%   4   7 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +18.0      +10.2 12 +7.8 15 72.7 106 +17.0 22 0.0 13
24 Ohio St. 83.4%   6   7 - 1 1 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.7      +8.5 24 +6.3 33 71.9 122 +13.2 42 +27.2 1
25 Iowa 84.4%   6   8 - 1 1 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 9 +14.6      +8.1 30 +6.4 29 63.3 329 +18.5 15 +12.0 9
27 UCLA 74.9%   7   7 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.9      +7.7 36 +6.3 34 63.3 327 +11.9 51 +25.8 4
28 Indiana 63.8%   9   7 - 2 0 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +13.9      +7.0 45 +6.9 26 69.9 174 +9.8 64 -7.3 18
30 Wisconsin 70.3%   8   7 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.6      +7.6 39 +6.0 37 74.9 51 +12.3 46 +21.2 5
35 USC 75.5%   8   8 - 1 1 - 1 21 - 10 10 - 10 +12.8      +8.4 26 +4.5 60 74.0 75 +17.1 20 +8.8 10
48 Nebraska 52.0%   10   8 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 11 +10.8      +6.0 54 +4.8 52 72.1 119 +17.6 19 0.0 13
49 Washington 38.8%   6 - 3 1 - 1 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.6      +6.4 53 +4.1 65 68.8 198 +10.1 62 +13.4 8
61 Northwestern 15.0%   5 - 4 0 - 2 16 - 15 7 - 13 +9.0      +6.7 50 +2.3 101 66.5 266 +7.2 84 -1.5 16
81 Oregon 4.6%   4 - 5 0 - 2 13 - 18 6 - 14 +7.0      +4.1 81 +3.0 87 69.3 191 +4.1 117 -2.9 17
93 Maryland 3.3%   6 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.6      +1.8 124 +3.8 69 72.6 110 +7.1 85 +2.4 12
96 Penn St. 3.8%   8 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 15 +5.3      +4.9 65 +0.4 158 69.4 187 +7.8 80 0.0 13
102 Minnesota 1.9%   5 - 4 1 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.9      +2.5 110 +2.4 98 59.9 362 +2.4 136 +26.1 3
123 Rutgers 0.2%   5 - 5 0 - 2 11 - 20 4 - 16 +2.5      +0.6 147 +1.9 112 66.7 264 0.0 172 +5.4 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 28 Indiana 64 102 Minnesota 73   
Wed, Dec 3 27 UCLA 82 49 Washington 80   
Wed, Dec 3 61 Northwestern 73 30 Wisconsin 85   
Sat, Dec 6 2 Iowa St. 81 7 Purdue 58   
Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke 66 12 Michigan St. 60   
Sat, Dec 6 15 Illinois 75 17 Tennessee 62   
Sat, Dec 6 28 Indiana 78 13 Louisville 87   
Sat, Dec 6 35 USC 76 49 Washington 84   
Sat, Dec 6 61 Northwestern 82 24 Ohio St. 86   
Sat, Dec 6 81 Oregon 63 27 UCLA 74   
Sat, Dec 6 88 Marquette 76 30 Wisconsin 96   
Sat, Dec 6 25 Iowa 83 93 Maryland 64   
Sat, Dec 6 1 Michigan 101 123 Rutgers 60   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 43 Creighton 75 48 Nebraska 77 59%   
Tue, Dec 9 15 Illinois 80 24 Ohio St. 79 51%   
Tue, Dec 9 1 Michigan 80 38 Villanova 64 93%   
Tue, Dec 9 28 Indiana 82 96 Penn St. 70 86%   
Tue, Dec 9 264 San Diego 74 35 USC 90 92%   
Wed, Dec 10 48 Nebraska 80 30 Wisconsin 79 51%   
Wed, Dec 10 102 Minnesota 59 7 Purdue 78 95%   
Thu, Dec 11 25 Iowa 67 2 Iowa St. 78 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.5 71.6 17.3 6.2 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 3.3 19.4 27.7 17.6 11.7 7.9 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.1 11.3 19.3 19.5 15.3 10.9 7.8 5.6 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 4.3 9.7 19.1 18.5 15.0 11.5 8.2 6.2 4.2 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 6.5 2.8 7.0 9.8 11.5 11.8 11.3 10.2 8.9 7.6 6.2 4.4 3.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Iowa 7.1 1.6 5.2 8.1 10.1 11.0 11.8 10.6 9.8 8.1 7.1 5.7 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
UCLA 6.4 2.2 7.1 10.4 11.8 12.2 11.7 11.0 9.0 7.6 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 8.5 0.5 2.5 4.1 6.2 7.5 9.0 10.2 10.8 10.6 9.8 8.6 7.0 5.1 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2
Wisconsin 7.5 1.2 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.0 10.5 10.8 10.3 9.3 8.1 6.6 5.0 3.7 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
USC 8.5 0.4 2.3 4.2 6.3 7.9 9.4 10.2 10.8 10.5 9.8 8.6 7.1 5.2 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2
Nebraska 10.2 0.2 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.8 5.6 6.9 8.0 9.0 9.8 9.9 9.8 8.6 7.3 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.3
Washington 9.9 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.4 7.9 9.1 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.1 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.8
Northwestern 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.8 6.5 8.1 9.9 11.2 11.8 11.7 10.1 8.2 6.0 3.3
Oregon 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.8 10.5 11.9 13.3 13.6 12.4 9.4
Maryland 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.4 10.2 12.5 13.4 13.9 13.9 11.8
Penn St. 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.4 4.9 6.8 9.1 11.5 13.1 14.7 15.4 14.6
Minnesota 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.9 6.9 8.8 11.0 12.8 13.7 13.5 11.6 6.8
Rutgers 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.2 6.1 9.1 11.7 15.3 19.6 27.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.9 12.8 19.1 23.8 21.3 10.4
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.8 14.0 15.8 15.9 13.4 8.9 4.2 1.1
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 7.0 10.3 14.0 16.2 16.2 13.3 9.1 4.5 1.4 0.2
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.6 11.1 14.1 15.9 15.4 12.5 8.4 4.0 1.5 0.3
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.5 11.3 13.5 14.5 14.2 11.3 7.8 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.6 12.5 14.4 14.8 12.7 10.3 6.3 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 8.2 11.3 14.2 15.2 14.3 12.0 8.3 4.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Indiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 7.3 10.7 13.5 15.3 14.5 12.4 8.7 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.1 7.9 11.2 13.8 14.5 14.1 11.6 8.1 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
USC 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.0 10.9 13.7 15.1 14.6 12.4 9.2 5.7 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.3 5.8 8.8 11.6 13.4 13.8 12.8 10.3 7.7 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.5 7.7 11.6 13.8 15.1 14.1 11.6 8.5 5.4 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 7.2 11.4 14.5 15.5 14.8 12.0 8.8 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 4.8 9.0 13.2 15.4 15.5 13.9 10.8 7.2 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.4 2.1 5.7 10.3 14.1 16.4 15.8 13.4 9.2 6.2 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 0.5 3.0 7.3 11.7 15.1 16.2 15.0 11.9 8.3 5.4 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 0.7 3.4 8.0 12.9 16.1 16.7 14.6 10.9 7.7 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 1.8 6.3 12.1 17.0 18.0 15.9 12.3 7.8 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 71.6% 57.1 12.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Purdue 19.4% 10.9 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 11.3% 5.8 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 9.7% 4.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 2.8% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 1.6% 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UCLA 2.2% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
USC 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 1   77.4 18.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 99.7% 15.6% 84.1% 2   27.1 29.6 20.3 11.5 6.0 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.6%
Michigan St. 99.2% 9.3% 89.9% 3   11.4 19.1 22.9 18.3 12.4 7.5 3.7 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Illinois 96.9% 8.7% 88.2% 4   6.4 12.1 17.8 17.9 14.3 10.6 7.2 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.1 96.6%
Ohio St. 83.4% 3.0% 80.3% 6   1.1 2.7 6.7 9.7 11.8 12.5 12.1 9.8 7.2 5.3 4.1 0.2 16.6 82.9%
Iowa 84.4% 2.5% 81.9% 6   1.0 2.6 6.1 9.6 11.6 12.7 11.7 9.6 7.9 6.6 4.8 0.2 15.6 84.0%
UCLA 74.9% 2.3% 72.6% 7   0.3 1.1 3.4 6.0 8.9 10.3 11.8 10.7 9.3 7.6 5.2 0.3 25.1 74.3%
Indiana 63.8% 1.7% 62.1% 9   0.2 0.7 2.1 4.1 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.1 9.0 8.2 5.8 0.4 36.2 63.2%
Wisconsin 70.3% 1.8% 68.5% 8   0.3 0.9 3.0 5.2 7.8 9.7 10.9 10.7 8.9 7.1 5.5 0.3 0.0 29.7 69.7%
USC 75.5% 1.2% 74.3% 8   0.3 0.8 2.7 4.9 7.8 10.4 11.3 11.4 10.3 9.1 6.1 0.3 24.5 75.2%
Nebraska 52.0% 0.5% 51.5% 10   0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.8 5.7 7.0 8.1 8.6 8.2 7.0 0.3 48.0 51.8%
Washington 38.8% 0.4% 38.3% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 5.6 0.3 61.3 38.5%
Northwestern 15.0% 0.2% 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.5 0.2 0.0 85.0 14.9%
Oregon 4.6% 0.1% 4.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.4 4.5%
Maryland 3.3% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 96.7 3.2%
Penn St. 3.8% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.1 96.2 3.7%
Minnesota 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 98.1 1.9%
Rutgers 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 88.3% 71.1% 53.1% 37.7% 26.2%
Purdue 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 94.2% 67.5% 39.4% 20.4% 10.1% 4.7%
Michigan St. 99.2% 0.5% 99.0% 88.2% 56.1% 28.0% 13.2% 5.9% 2.4%
Illinois 96.9% 1.5% 96.3% 81.2% 48.0% 22.7% 10.2% 4.6% 1.9%
Ohio St. 83.4% 4.7% 81.3% 56.3% 24.3% 9.2% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Iowa 84.4% 5.6% 81.8% 55.3% 23.3% 8.8% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4%
UCLA 74.9% 6.1% 72.0% 46.0% 17.2% 6.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Indiana 63.8% 6.8% 60.8% 38.2% 14.1% 5.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Wisconsin 70.3% 6.3% 67.2% 42.5% 15.0% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
USC 75.5% 7.2% 71.9% 42.4% 13.9% 4.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Nebraska 52.0% 8.2% 47.5% 24.7% 6.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Washington 38.8% 6.5% 35.5% 18.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 15.0% 4.2% 13.0% 6.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 4.6% 1.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 3.3% 1.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 3.8% 1.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 1.9% 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 1.8 11.1 29.9 35.7 17.6 3.5 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.4 0.0 0.3 3.3 16.9 34.3 31.5 12.0 1.7 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 9.1 23.5 32.4 22.9 8.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.8 0.1 1.6 10.2 27.6 34.1 19.8 5.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 96.1% 2.1 3.9 24.6 40.8 24.4 5.7 0.6 0.0
Final Four 79.6% 1.1 20.4 50.3 25.6 3.6 0.1
Final Game 56.5% 0.6 43.5 49.6 6.9
Champion 36.8% 0.4 63.2 36.8