Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -13.6 351
Results Rating -11.6 337
Consistency 0.16 226
Pace 68.5 178
Improvement -0.2 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 340 D D- D D- D+
Defense D- 332 D- F B- D+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 D+ 54% 286 -0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 24 F+ 30% 358 -0.1 183
Three Pointers 34% 318 C 34% 185 -3.6 300
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 268 D -3.8 312
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 315
Second Chance D 25.0% 323 D 0.93 317 D- 0.23 337
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 233
Other Turnovers D- 9.0% 341
Turnovers D 18.8% 308
Freethrows D- 0.25 341 D+ 70% 264 D- 0.17 343
Total Offense D- -7.3 340

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F+ 34% 345 D+ 12.7% 284
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 205 C 5.4% 216
Three Pointers C+ 87% 120 B+ 0.1% 16
Total D- 47% 326 D+ 6.5% 288


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 19 F+ 67% 358 +8.0 362
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 D+ 40% 263 -2.3 22
Three Pointers 40% 201 C- 34% 211 +0.0 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 359 D- +4.4 338
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 344
Second Chance F 37.9% 362 F+ 1.20 359 F 0.45 364
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 78
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 196
Turnovers B- 18.0% 101
Freethrows D+ 0.34 286 C- 73% 241 D+ 0.25 288
Total Defense D- -6.3 332

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 306 C- 10.3% 198
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 40% 347 B 7.1% 58
Three Pointers C- 86% 242 C- 0.6% 236
Total D 62% 318 C+ 5.9% 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 245 16.3 28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 179 0.25 359
Consistency 0.13 240 0.15 327
Improvement -0.7 225 +0.6 165

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 353 350 344
Results Rating Rank 340 336 329
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 10 9 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 75 @Florida St. L 76 - 108 2% -17  6% 0 - 1 F -21 C- -1 A C+ F F -18 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 6 187 @South Alabama L 70 - 76 9% +3  71% 0 - 2 C- -5 D -6 A F F C+ +1 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 61 @Minnesota L 50 - 95 2% -30  0% 0 - 3 F -33 F -19 F D+ F F -14 B F B-
 Tue, Nov 11 109 @Maryland L 64 - 84 4% -12  0% 0 - 4 D- -13 F+ -10 B- D F D+ -3 F+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 182 @Howard L 64 - 72 9% -5  1% 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -4 C+ F B C- -3 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 58 @LSU L 81 - 107 2% -7  28% 0 - 6 D- -13 B +6 B A+ D F -19 C+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 43 @Oklahoma L 53 - 72 1% -5  23% 0 - 7 C- -3 F -17 C F F A+ +14 A+ A F+
 Fri, Nov 28 201 Indiana St. W 81 - 74 15% +11  98% 1 - 7 C+ +5 D -5 A D- F A +9 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 29 221 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 83 12% -10  0% 1 - 8 F -26 D- -8 D F D- F -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 10 @Iowa St. L 68 - 132 0% -36  5% 1 - 9 F -41 D+ -4 A D F F -29 F F B+
 Fri, Dec 19 47 @Baylor L 56 - 113 1% -29  1% 1 - 10 F -42 F -21 F F+ C- F -15 F C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 74 @Mississippi L 43 - 79 2% -14  17% 1 - 11 F -25 F -25 F F B- C -1 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 345 @Jackson St. L 86 - 89 36% -7  11% 1 - 12 0 - 1 D- -13 B- +5 C+ C- B- F -18 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @Alabama A&M W 64 - 62 22% -4  13% 2 - 12 1 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F+ F B- B+ +6 B- D- B-
 Mon, Jan 12 316 @Alabama St. L 66 - 81 25% -6  2% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -21 F -12 F B- D F+ -9 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 299 Texas Southern L 71 - 72 41% -1  31% 2 - 14 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -4 F+ F+ D+ F+ -8 D+ F F+
 Mon, Jan 19 323 Prairie View W 76 - 75 50% +3  74% 3 - 14 2 - 3 D- -13 D -5 F+ C- C- D- -8 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 319 @Florida A&M L 58 - 66 25% +0  42% 3 - 15 2 - 4 D- -15 F -15 F+ F F C -0 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 237 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 82 13% -11  4% 3 - 16 2 - 5 D -10 C- -2 F+ A- B F+ -9 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Southern W 78 - 73 34% +1  52% 4 - 16 3 - 5 C- -4 B- +5 A+ F+ F F+ -9 D+ F+ C-
 Mon, Feb 2 308 Grambling St. L 50 - 74 44% -13  2% 4 - 17 3 - 6 F -36 F -21 F F A F -17 F F C
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 77 - 84 32% -10  0% 4 - 18 3 - 7 F+ -16 C +1 B- D- C+ F -17 F F A-
 Mon, Feb 9 365 @Mississippi Valley W 74 - 66 71% +12  98% 5 - 18 4 - 7 D -11 B +7 B+ F A+ F -16 D- F D
 Sat, Feb 14 237 Bethune-Cookman W 57 - 55 27% -5  14% 6 - 18 5 - 7 D+ -5 F -15 F+ B F A +10 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 319 Florida A&M L 78 - 86 46% -10  0% 6 - 19 5 - 8 F -21 D+ -3 F A+ B F -18 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 345 Jackson St. W 83 - 65 59% -2  22% 7 - 19 6 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 F B- C+ B +5 B- D A+
 Thu, Feb 26 299 @Texas Southern L 87 - 92 OT 22% +4  75% 7 - 20 6 - 9 D -10 C- -1 F B C+ F+ -8 D- B- F
 Sat, Feb 28 323 @Prairie View L 51 - 72 28% -14  0% 7 - 21 6 - 10 F -29 F -27 F F D+ C -1 F D D+
 Tue, Mar 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 67 - 64 86% +7  93% 8 - 21 7 - 10 F -22 F -12 F C+ C F -10 D+ F A-
 Thu, Mar 5 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77 - 76 54%
Totals 9 - 21 8 - 10 -14 D- -7 C D D+ D- -6 C D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ F+ C D 40% 57% 34% D+ D D D D- D D- D+ D- D- F+ D+ C- D- 45% 14% 40% F+ D- F F+ F B- D+ C- D+
0.98 54% 30% 34% -4 -1 0.93 25% 0.9 .23 19% .25 70% .17 1.18 67% 40% 34% +4 +1 1.14 38% 1.2 .45 18% .34 73% .18
Nov
4		 Florida St. C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 39% 32% F A C- B C+ F A+ F A+ F F B F+ F 54% 5% 40% F F D F F D- F+ B+ D+
1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29 1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25
Nov
6		 South Alabama D A+ D+ B+ A 25% 6% 69% B- A F+ F F F D+ A C C+ F+ A+ D D- 59% 17% 24% D- D- F+ F F A+ F A- F
0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17 1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Minnesota F F F B+ F 35% 48% 17% F F D+ D D+ F B+ F C+ F C+ B A+ A 63% 6% 31% F B F F F B- F F F
0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17 1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55
Nov
11		 Maryland F+ A+ F A B+ 26% 30% 44% F B- C F D F F+ F F D+ F B B F+ 33% 13% 54% C- F+ F B- D- A+ F D+ F
0.89 77% 20% 41% +4 -2 1.06 26% 0.8 .19 29% .22 64% .14 1.17 81% 33% 31% +4 +1 1.13 45% 1.0 .45 24% .49 74% .36
Nov
13		 Howard D B D C- B- 45% 19% 36% C- C+ F F F B F A+ F+ C- F C+ A F 46% 27% 27% B+ F F+ F F A D- B+ C-
0.96 63% 30% 32% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.3 .07 16% .21 83% .18 1.08 74% 36% 27% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.6 .67 25% .38 68% .26
Nov
18		 LSU B F+ A+ B+ A- 27% 27% 46% D B B+ A+ A+ D F F F F C A A- 61% 0% 39% F C+ F F F C+ F D+ F
1.11 47% 53% 38% +4 -2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 18% .18 45% .08 1.47 61% 28% -2 +4 1.07 56% 1.6 .88 15% .63 79% .50
Nov
23		 Oklahoma F D F A+ C+ 34% 30% 36% D+ C F F F F F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C- A+ D+ A+ A F+ F A F
0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10 1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31
Nov
28		 Indiana St. D B+ A+ C A 46% 20% 33% B- A B+ F D- F B F C A B+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 4% 45% F+ A+ D F F B F F F
1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18 0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32
Nov
29		 Louisiana Tech D- F C- B- D 51% 24% 24% C D B F F D- A+ F D F F+ B F F 44% 23% 33% C- F F F F F A+ A A+
0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20 1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09
Dec
3		 Iowa St. D+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% D A C- F D F F D F+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 9% 47% F+ F F F F B+ D+ F+ D-
0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11 1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27
Dec
19		 Baylor F A+ F A F 10% 65% 25% F F C- F F+ C- F A+ F F F F F F 36% 29% 35% D+ F F A C B+ D F F
0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09 1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31
Dec
29		 Mississippi F F F F F 32% 40% 28% F F F F F B- D- B D+ C F A D D- 32% 20% 48% F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ F A+
0.64 25% 20% 21% -23 -3 0.50 18% 0.9 .16 16% .27 73% .20 1.18 81% 30% 38% +8 0 1.18 44% 0.8 .36 19% .15 88% .13
Jan
3		 Jackson St. B- D- F A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ D+ C+ C- B- B+ F D+ F F C F+ F 36% 16% 48% F F B- B+ B F F F F
1.23 53% 20% 54% +7 -2 1.13 34% 1.1 .37 14% .40 58% .23 1.27 83% 38% 38% +12 0 1.26 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 84% .35
Jan
10		 Alabama A&M F+ F A- D+ F 46% 18% 36% C+ F+ D- F F B- F B+ F+ B+ C+ F A+ B 35% 17% 48% F+ B- F+ D+ D- B- C+ A+ A
0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17
Jan
12		 Alabama St. F F F F+ F 35% 19% 46% D+ F D- A+ B- D F C+ F+ F+ F A+ F+ F 43% 11% 46% F F C- F F A F F F
0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21 1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38
Jan
17		 Texas Southern D+ C+ F F F 46% 9% 46% B+ F+ D F F+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F+ B- F A- C 62% 22% 16% F D+ D- F F F+ F A F
1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39 1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38
Jan
19		 Prairie View D D+ A+ F F 44% 17% 39% C+ F+ A+ F C- C- F A D- D- F B- F F 38% 29% 33% D F A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C-
1.09 54% 56% 24% -5 +1 0.94 48% 0.8 .38 19% .28 81% .23 1.07 70% 33% 41% +7 -1 1.13 13% 0.5 .07 14% .32 84% .27
Jan
24		 Florida A&M F F A+ F F 52% 19% 29% B- F+ D F F F D+ D+ D C F+ A C- F 53% 10% 38% F F F+ F F A+ C- B- C
0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22 0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19
Jan
26		 Bethune-Cookman C- D F C F+ 43% 25% 32% D- F+ D+ A+ A- B F D- F F+ F F A F 55% 13% 32% F F B- A+ A- D+ F C- F
1.04 50% 21% 33% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.6 .48 13% .20 67% .13 1.16 73% 67% 27% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .19 17% .44 69% .31
Jan
31		 Southern B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ D- F+ F+ F D C- D F+ D- F A C- 36% 20% 43% D D+ F D+ F+ C- F C- F
1.20 67% 75% 43% +14 +2 1.33 26% 1.0 .26 23% .32 75% .24 1.12 63% 44% 26% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 15% .47 69% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Grambling St. F F F F F 49% 17% 34% C+ F F D+ F A C+ F D+ F F+ B+ D+ F 43% 15% 43% F+ F F F F C A- D+ B+
0.80 43% 0% 25% -18 +1 0.68 22% 1.0 .22 14% .35 63% .22 1.18 65% 29% 35% +2 +1 1.09 36% 1.5 .54 21% .24 75% .18
Feb
7		 Arkansas Pine Bluff C D D- A+ B 40% 24% 36% D B- F A+ D- C+ F A F F C- F F F 45% 14% 40% F F F F F A- F D- F
1.16 55% 33% 50% +6 0 1.14 21% 1.5 .32 15% .23 85% .20 1.27 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.31 36% 1.3 .48 23% .47 79% .37
Feb
9		 Mississippi Valley B A+ F A B+ 36% 14% 50% C+ B+ F A+ F A+ D D D- F B- F A+ F+ 28% 42% 30% C+ D- F F F D F A+ F
1.26 81% 17% 41% +11 +1 1.25 12% 1.7 .20 7% .37 70% .26 1.12 50% 56% 23% 0 -3 0.95 41% 1.1 .44 19% .48 52% .25
Feb
14		 Bethune-Cookman F D+ C F D- 50% 34% 16% F F+ D- A+ B F A- F C+ A F A+ A D+ 51% 19% 30% D- D F B+ F A+ D+ B C-
0.89 53% 38% 17% -7 -1 0.87 26% 1.7 .44 22% .38 63% .24 0.86 74% 14% 27% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .42 36% .34 64% .22
Feb
16		 Florida A&M D+ D+ D- D- F 46% 29% 25% D F D A+ A+ B B A+ A F C+ A D- D+ 35% 24% 41% C D+ F F F F F D+ F
1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33 1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35
Feb
21		 Jackson St. D+ F+ F D- F 46% 11% 43% B F B C B- C+ A+ C+ A+ B C D A+ B+ 39% 16% 45% F B- F+ C D A+ F B- F
1.16 52% 20% 30% -7 +2 0.91 42% 1.1 .45 15% .63 76% .48 0.91 53% 43% 20% -11 +1 0.82 32% 1.0 .32 25% .48 73% .35
Feb
26		 Texas Southern C- D+ F F F 44% 18% 39% C F D+ A+ B C+ B- B- B F+ F A+ A+ D 60% 19% 21% F D- F A+ B- F D- F F
1.09 56% 30% 27% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.5 .44 15% .40 74% .30 1.16 70% 25% 23% +1 +2 1.08 33% 0.7 .23 13% .34 79% .27
Feb
28		 Prairie View F F F D- F 53% 22% 25% C+ F F D F D+ F A+ F+ C F C- B+ F 38% 35% 27% C F F B- D D+ A A+ A+
0.72 37% 9% 31% -19 +1 0.67 13% 1.0 .13 20% .25 86% .21 1.02 70% 39% 29% +3 -2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 60% .15
Mar
3		 Mississippi Valley F D+ D+ F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F D A+ C+ C A+ D+ A F D- D+ A+ D+ 36% 39% 25% D D+ F F F A- F F F
1.04 58% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 17% .52 71% .37 0.99 63% 41% 18% -3 -2 0.91 36% 1.3 .46 25% .47 78% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 37.0 37.0 8th
9th 19.2 17.1 36.3 9th
10th 26.7 26.7 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 45.9 54.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 54.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.4 53.7
7-11 45.9% 45.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 32.5% 1.3% 16.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 45.9%