Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#194
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#142
Pace66.7#253
Improvement+0.7#135

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#161
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#309
Layup/Dunks-0.1#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#271
Freethrows+4.4#11
Improvement-3.3#357

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#246
First Shot-1.1#205
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#283
Layups/Dunks+5.1#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#332
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+4.0#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 38.4% 49.2% 26.2%
.500 or above in Conference 19.7% 27.5% 10.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 17.2% 8.4% 27.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 49 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 227 Samford W 85-72 68%     1 - 0 +6.0 +14.1 -7.2
  Sat, Nov 8 255 Texas St. W 79-71 72%     2 - 0 -0.2 +7.6 -7.4
  Tue, Nov 11 314 @Louisiana W 66-62 64%     3 - 0 -1.9 +0.3 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 14 241 New Orleans L 63-85 70%     3 - 1 -29.6 -10.9 -20.2
  Fri, Nov 21 33 Utah St. L 75-96 8%     3 - 2 -7.5 +9.2 -17.1
  Sun, Nov 23 156 Boston College W 93-90 OT 41%     4 - 2 +3.3 +12.8 -9.8
  Fri, Nov 28 234 Nicholls St. W 82-72 69%     5 - 2 +2.6 +7.6 -4.8
  Tue, Dec 2 245 Grambling St. W 65-63 71%     6 - 2 -5.8 -1.6 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 6 59 Akron L 71-88 22%     6 - 3 -11.1 -5.0 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 13 83 UC San Diego L 67-93 20%     6 - 4 -19.1 -9.8 -6.6
  Wed, Dec 17 187 Louisiana Tech W 61-53 60%     7 - 4 +3.2 +1.4 +3.3
  Sat, Dec 20 173 Portland St. W 63-61 57%     8 - 4 -2.0 -3.8 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 31 271 @East Carolina W 73-72 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 114 Florida Atlantic L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 287 @Texas San Antonio W 74-73 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 107 UAB L 74-77 38%    
  Sun, Jan 18 146 North Texas L 65-66 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 114 @Florida Atlantic L 72-81 22%    
  Sun, Jan 25 183 @Charlotte L 69-72 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 79 South Florida L 76-82 29%    
  Sun, Feb 1 72 @Memphis L 67-80 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 98 Wichita St. L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 151 Temple W 76-75 51%    
  Sun, Feb 15 107 @UAB L 71-80 19%    
  Wed, Feb 18 146 @North Texas L 63-69 29%    
  Sun, Feb 22 231 Rice W 74-69 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 92 Tulsa L 74-79 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 79 @South Florida L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Mar 5 151 @Temple L 72-78 30%    
  Sun, Mar 8 72 Memphis L 70-77 26%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.6 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 4.9 1.1 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.3 2.6 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 15.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 16.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 14.0 12th
13th 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.6 13th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.6 11.2 14.3 15.4 14.5 12.1 8.4 5.4 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 81.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 68.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 13.6% 13.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 10.9% 10.9% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.5% 7.4% 7.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.4% 5.4% 5.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
10-8 5.4% 2.8% 2.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.3
9-9 8.4% 1.6% 1.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.3
8-10 12.1% 0.8% 0.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-11 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5
6-12 15.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 11.2% 11.2
3-15 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%