Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #172
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #151
Pace 66.8 #238
Improvement +3.2 #48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #176 D D A- A C-
Defense #188 C- D+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.18 #154 -1.7 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.67 #300 -0.6 #208
Three Pointers 44% #133 0.90 #318 -1.1 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #277 -3.4 #276
Freethrows 21.2 #21 77% #40 16.3 #15
Second Chance 22.1% #354 1.22 #22 0.27 #277
Turnovers 13.9% #43
Total Offense -0.4 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.08 #79 +2.9 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.81 #277 -0.5 #219
Three Pointers 44% #106 1.13 #323 -3.8 #321
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #223 -1.4 #223
Freethrows 18.3 #219 69% #61 12.7 #179
Second Chance 33.8% #307 1.06 #200 0.36 #269
Turnovers 17.5% #109
Total Defense -0.6 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #233 -0.3% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #274 3.1% #238
Possession Length 17.0 #140 18.5 #331
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #243 0.16 #136
Improvement -1.7 #283 +4.9 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 49.6% 67.3% 38.1%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 37.2% 14.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 249 Samford W 85 - 72 74% +6  1 - 0 +5 +12 A+ F C -6 C- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 263 Texas St. W 79 - 71 77% -6  2 - 0 -1 +8 C F B -8 C- F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 312 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 69% +3  3 - 0 -2 -1 F C B- -1 C+ F F
 Fri, Nov 14 235 New Orleans L 63 - 85 72% -11  3 - 1 -29 -13 F F A+ -18 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 39 Utah St. L 75 - 96 10% -6  3 - 2 -8 +8 A+ D- A- -16 F B- C
 Sun, Nov 23 134 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 40% +1  4 - 2 +5 +15 B+ A+ A+ -10 C D D-
 Fri, Nov 28 232 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 72% +7  5 - 2 +3 +6 B F A+ -3 F A C
 Tue, Dec 2 287 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 81% +0  6 - 2 -8 -2 F D- A+ -6 C F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 64 Akron L 71 - 88 26% -8  6 - 3 -11 -4 F F A+ -8 C- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 109 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 32% -16  6 - 4 -22 -11 F F F -8 D C C+
 Wed, Dec 17 228 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 71% +6  7 - 4 +1 +0 F C+ A+ +2 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 153 Portland St. W 63 - 61 56% +3  8 - 4 -0 -3 F D F +3 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 267 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 57% +1  9 - 4 1 - 0 +6 +12 B- A D -6 D+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 95 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 37% -1  10 - 4 2 - 0 +6 -2 D- B- B +7 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 345 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 77% +19  11 - 4 3 - 0 +24 +10 B- C B- +14 A B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 117 UAB L 69 - 82 47% -4  11 - 5 3 - 1 -13 -4 F B+ B+ -9 C F B+
 Sun, Jan 18 127 North Texas L 63 - 71 50% -6  11 - 6 3 - 2 -9 -3 F F A+ -7 D+ B+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 95 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 18% -6  11 - 7 3 - 3 +4 +5 D- A C -1 D- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 173 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Jan 28 74 South Florida L 75 - 81 30%
 Sun, Feb 1 92 @Memphis L 67 - 77 18%
 Sun, Feb 8 103 Wichita St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 140 Temple W 73 - 72 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 117 @UAB L 72 - 79 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 127 @North Texas L 62 - 68 29%
 Sun, Feb 22 239 Rice W 74 - 68 72%
 Wed, Feb 25 70 Tulsa L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 74 @South Florida L 72 - 84 15%
 Thu, Mar 5 140 @Temple L 70 - 75 31%
 Sun, Mar 8 92 Memphis L 70 - 74 36%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 +0 D D A- -1 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 0.7 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 2.6 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.5 3.9 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 7.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.5 10.7 11.8 2.7 0.0 29.0 10th
11th 0.5 3.4 8.3 7.0 1.8 0.1 21.2 11th
12th 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 1.0 5.0 12.8 18.9 21.5 17.7 12.3 6.7 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 5.6% 5.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.0% 8.2% 8.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
11-7 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 12.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-8 6.7% 2.2% 2.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
9-9 12.3% 1.5% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.1
8-10 17.7% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 17.6
7-11 21.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4
6-12 18.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 18.8
5-13 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.7
4-14 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.9
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 13.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%