The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.1#363
Expected Predictive Rating-20.9#362
Pace62.8#340
Improvement-0.1#202

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#308
First Shot-4.5#296
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#214
Layup/Dunks-1.7#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows-2.3#309
Improvement-2.3#339

Defense
Total Defense-10.0#365
First Shot-6.7#355
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#337
Layups/Dunks-3.9#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#333
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement+2.2#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 3.8% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 68.4% 50.3% 68.6%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 43 - 144 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 145 @Boston College L 47-76 5%     0 - 1 -25.0 -17.8 -9.0
  Mon, Nov 10 285 Charleston Southern L 86-96 31%     0 - 2 -19.9 +6.7 -26.4
  Fri, Nov 14 318 @West Georgia L 92-100 19%     0 - 3 -13.9 +9.7 -23.0
  Mon, Nov 24 292 Bellarmine L 58-70 32%     0 - 4 -22.3 -14.0 -10.3
  Wed, Nov 26 263 Houston Christian L 65-72 26%     0 - 5 -15.5 -1.3 -15.6
  Sun, Nov 30 262 Presbyterian L 41-69 18%     0 - 6 -33.5 -20.9 -20.7
  Thu, Dec 4 138 @Davidson L 63-79 4%     0 - 7 -11.4 -1.7 -11.3
  Sat, Dec 13 87 @South Carolina L 58-82 1%    
  Wed, Dec 17 175 @College of Charleston L 64-81 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 105 @Richmond L 62-84 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 117 East Tennessee St. L 64-79 8%    
  Sat, Jan 3 247 Wofford L 68-75 25%    
  Wed, Jan 7 194 @Mercer L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 289 Western Carolina L 71-76 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 281 @UNC Greensboro L 67-79 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 341 @VMI L 69-76 26%    
  Wed, Jan 21 148 Furman L 65-78 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 117 @East Tennessee St. L 61-82 3%    
  Thu, Jan 29 341 VMI L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 281 UNC Greensboro L 70-76 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 231 @Samford L 66-80 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 222 @Chattanooga L 64-78 10%    
  Wed, Feb 11 289 @Western Carolina L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Feb 14 194 Mercer L 71-81 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 231 Samford L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 222 Chattanooga L 67-75 23%    
  Wed, Feb 25 148 @Furman L 62-81 5%    
  Sat, Feb 28 247 @Wofford L 65-78 12%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.5 6.8 8.7 5.5 1.3 0.1 25.0 9th
10th 6.0 14.1 17.4 12.2 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 55.8 10th
Total 6.0 14.4 19.9 19.2 15.6 11.0 6.8 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-15 19.2% 19.2
2-16 19.9% 19.9
1-17 14.4% 14.4
0-18 6.0% 6.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.2%