Yale
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#105
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#193
Pace68.6#191
Improvement+0.2#173

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#64
First Shot+2.4#112
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#65
Layup/Dunks+1.2#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#218
Freethrows+1.4#97
Improvement-0.7#251

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot+1.0#145
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#274
Layups/Dunks+5.9#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#267
Freethrows-3.7#351
Improvement+0.9#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.8% 35.2% 28.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 89.2% 93.9% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 94.8% 90.8%
Conference Champion 44.4% 47.5% 38.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round32.8% 35.2% 28.5%
Second Round5.3% 6.1% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Neutral) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 410 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 238   Quinnipiac W 88-62 86%     1 - 0 +19.0 +10.1 +8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 215   @ Illinois-Chicago L 79-91 66%     1 - 1 -11.7 -0.9 -9.7
  Nov 11, 2024 22   @ Purdue L 84-92 12%     1 - 2 +9.3 +14.0 -4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 114   @ Minnesota L 56-59 43%     1 - 3 +3.3 +4.2 -1.8
  Nov 20, 2024 309   @ Stony Brook W 86-64 82%     2 - 3 +16.9 +10.4 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 292   Fairfield W 91-66 85%     3 - 3 +18.2 +26.5 -4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 207   Delaware L 94-100 74%     3 - 4 -8.4 +11.8 -19.7
  Dec 02, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 78-84 35%     3 - 5 +2.4 +4.1 -1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 194   Vermont W 65-50 80%     4 - 5 +10.4 +0.8 +11.3
  Dec 20, 2024 146   Akron W 82-78 64%    
  Jan 01, 2025 254   Howard W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 159   Brown W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 183   @ Columbia W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 20, 2025 306   Dartmouth W 82-67 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 232   Harvard W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 31, 2025 119   @ Princeton L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 284   @ Penn W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   @ Cornell L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 14, 2025 284   Penn W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 119   Princeton W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 121   Cornell W 84-79 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   Columbia W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 28, 2025 306   @ Dartmouth W 79-70 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 232   @ Harvard W 75-70 68%    
  Mar 08, 2025 159   @ Brown W 73-71 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 7.5 13.5 12.8 7.1 2.0 44.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 7.9 9.4 4.2 0.5 23.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 6.2 1.4 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.9 7.2 11.7 16.1 18.3 17.8 13.3 7.1 2.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
13-1 100.0% 7.1    6.9 0.1
12-2 96.1% 12.8    11.0 1.8 0.0
11-3 76.1% 13.5    8.4 4.7 0.4 0.0
10-4 40.9% 7.5    2.3 3.7 1.4 0.1
9-5 8.9% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 44.4% 44.4 30.8 10.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.0% 61.5% 61.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.8
13-1 7.1% 52.8% 52.8% 12.1 0.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.3
12-2 13.3% 48.6% 48.6% 12.6 0.1 3.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.8
11-3 17.8% 41.0% 41.0% 13.0 0.0 1.7 4.0 1.4 0.1 10.5
10-4 18.3% 35.1% 35.1% 13.4 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.4 11.9
9-5 16.1% 29.7% 29.7% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 1.0 0.0 11.3
8-6 11.7% 20.6% 20.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.1 9.3
7-7 7.2% 6.4% 6.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.7
6-8 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-9 1.7% 1.7
4-10 0.7% 0.7
3-11 0.2% 0.2
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 32.8% 32.8% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 8.4 12.2 7.7 3.0 0.2 67.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 10.5 0.7 1.6 3.3 2.5 2.7 7.8 12.5 46.0 23.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%