Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#185
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#284
Pace74.7#63
Improvement-1.4#317

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#161
First Shot-0.8#208
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks+2.6#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#274
Freethrows+0.9#146
Improvement-1.3#339

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#237
First Shot+2.5#100
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#349
Layups/Dunks+4.3#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement-0.1#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 29.7% 49.9% 24.5%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 37.0% 24.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 10.5% 17.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 20.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 48 - 313 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 94%     1 - 0 +3.7 +10.7 -8.7
  Nov 13, 2024 249   Oral Roberts W 85-76 73%     2 - 0 +1.4 +8.1 -6.5
  Nov 16, 2024 167   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 36%     2 - 1 -2.5 +1.8 -2.6
  Nov 20, 2024 205   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 65%     2 - 2 -19.1 -11.7 -8.9
  Nov 23, 2024 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-81 21%    
  Nov 26, 2024 328   Detroit Mercy W 79-71 78%    
  Nov 27, 2024 229   Georgia St. W 78-76 58%    
  Dec 04, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. L 77-82 33%    
  Dec 07, 2024 266   Southern W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 14, 2024 71   Central Florida L 72-81 20%    
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 82-60 98%    
  Jan 01, 2025 172   Rice W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 103   @ UAB L 73-82 22%    
  Jan 07, 2025 273   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-80 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   Charlotte W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 120   @ South Florida L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 145   East Carolina W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 26, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 103   UAB L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 02, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 76-81 32%    
  Feb 05, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 73-89 8%    
  Feb 08, 2025 73   Florida Atlantic L 80-86 30%    
  Feb 12, 2025 114   @ Temple L 72-80 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   Texas San Antonio W 85-77 74%    
  Feb 19, 2025 84   @ North Texas L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 22, 2025 172   @ Rice L 72-76 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 146   Tulane W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 114   Temple L 75-77 44%    
  Mar 09, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 72-82 20%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.2 0.2 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.7 2.0 0.2 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.4 2.0 0.1 10.6 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 6.0 3.3 0.3 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.1 12th
13th 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.8 13th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.6 6.6 9.7 12.3 13.7 13.3 12.0 9.7 7.1 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 61.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 31.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 22.9% 22.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 15.7% 15.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.7% 11.5% 11.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.5% 6.3% 6.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-6 3.0% 5.5% 5.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8
11-7 4.7% 2.9% 2.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6
10-8 7.1% 1.4% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0
9-9 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
8-10 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
7-11 13.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2
6-12 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 12.3% 12.3
4-14 9.7% 9.7
3-15 6.6% 6.6
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%