Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#32
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#35
Pace62.3#330
Improvement-1.3#252

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#14
First Shot+8.7#17
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#119
Layup/Dunks+5.1#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#29
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement-5.3#357

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#67
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#13
Layups/Dunks+0.5#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#73
Freethrows-2.4#330
Improvement+4.0#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 8.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 18.5% 39.4% 10.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 99.5% 96.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.0% 99.4% 96.3%
Average Seed 7.6 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 3.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round97.2% 99.5% 96.4%
Second Round54.8% 63.8% 51.5%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 22.5% 13.3%
Elite Eight5.5% 7.0% 5.0%
Final Four1.7% 2.0% 1.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 46 - 5
Quad 27 - 313 - 9
Quad 33 - 216 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 274   Sacred Heart W 92-56 97%     1 - 0 +27.1 +9.8 +16.0
  Nov 09, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +22.7 +12.5 +10.4
  Nov 13, 2024 357   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +24.6 +17.6 +11.9
  Nov 19, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +21.0 +0.6 +19.4
  Nov 25, 2024 47   Memphis L 97-99 OT 62%     4 - 1 +9.1 +25.0 -15.7
  Nov 26, 2024 91   Colorado L 72-73 79%     4 - 2 +4.6 +14.0 -9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 83   Dayton L 67-85 76%     4 - 3 -11.2 +0.4 -13.0
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.6%    5 - 3 +33.0 +18.7 +15.3
  Dec 04, 2024 24   Baylor W 76-72 55%     6 - 3 +16.8 +19.3 -1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 36   @ Texas W 76-65 45%     7 - 3 +26.3 +18.4 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 77-71 34%     8 - 3 +24.4 +12.3 +12.2
  Dec 18, 2024 42   Xavier W 94-89 OT 68%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.4 +24.2 -9.9
  Dec 21, 2024 66   @ Butler W 78-74 62%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.9 +10.3 +4.7
  Jan 01, 2025 120   @ DePaul W 81-68 80%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.1 +15.3 +3.6
  Jan 05, 2025 79   Providence W 87-84 81%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +7.7 +20.9 -13.0
  Jan 08, 2025 43   @ Villanova L 66-68 49%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +12.3 +10.4 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 73   @ Georgetown W 68-60 64%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +18.3 +7.7 +11.2
  Jan 18, 2025 31   Creighton L 63-68 58%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +6.9 +9.1 -3.2
  Jan 21, 2025 66   Butler W 80-78 OT 79%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.8 +8.5 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 42   @ Xavier L 72-76 49%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +10.5 +10.3 +0.1
  Jan 29, 2025 120   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +11.0 +7.1 +5.1
  Feb 01, 2025 29   @ Marquette W 77-69 38%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +25.3 +17.9 +7.8
  Feb 07, 2025 14   St. John's L 62-68 45%     16 - 7 8 - 4 +9.3 +2.0 +7.3
  Feb 11, 2025 31   @ Creighton W 70-66 39%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +21.0 +9.4 +11.8
  Feb 15, 2025 167   @ Seton Hall L 68-69 OT 87%     17 - 8 9 - 5 +1.2 +2.1 -1.0
  Feb 18, 2025 43   Villanova W 66-59 68%     18 - 8 10 - 5 +16.2 +5.9 +11.5
  Feb 23, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 73   Georgetown W 74-65 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 79   @ Providence W 74-70 65%    
  Mar 05, 2025 29   Marquette W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 167   Seton Hall W 74-57 95%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 9.2 5.5 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 17.6 23.0 1.8 43.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 13.3 18.9 1.0 34.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 2.7 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 3.4 17.3 37.6 33.2 8.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 12.0% 1.0    0.0 0.4 0.6
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.3% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 33.2% 99.4% 16.8% 82.6% 7.1 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.1 10.7 9.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 99.3%
13-7 37.6% 97.5% 12.9% 84.6% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.9 13.9 9.1 2.4 0.2 0.9 97.2%
12-8 17.3% 94.5% 8.6% 85.9% 8.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.5 5.5 2.8 0.5 1.0 93.9%
11-9 3.4% 87.8% 6.7% 81.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 86.9%
10-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.5% 14.0% 83.4% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 4.4 11.3 22.3 30.0 19.2 6.5 0.8 2.5 97.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 3.5 0.5 9.1 41.9 38.2 8.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 100.0% 5.5 0.6 14.3 32.5 39.6 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9% 100.0% 6.1 0.4 4.6 22.5 35.1 30.9 6.3 0.4