Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#24
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#55
Pace69.6#184
Improvement-3.3#347

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#41
First Shot+8.6#15
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#262
Layup/Dunks+2.8#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#23
Freethrows+1.6#103
Improvement-3.2#362

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#18
First Shot+7.7#15
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#218
Layups/Dunks+8.3#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#33
Freethrows-2.4#310
Improvement-0.1#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 3.9% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 12.1% 18.5% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 30.4% 42.1% 23.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.6% 84.1% 65.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.1% 83.6% 65.1%
Average Seed 7.0 6.5 7.4
.500 or above 95.0% 98.3% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.1% 71.0% 59.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four6.6% 5.3% 7.4%
First Round69.6% 81.8% 62.2%
Second Round46.6% 58.1% 39.7%
Sweet Sixteen19.0% 26.0% 14.8%
Elite Eight7.7% 10.6% 6.0%
Final Four3.1% 4.2% 2.4%
Championship Game1.1% 1.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Louisville (Neutral) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 266 Alabama A&M W 98-51 97%     1 - 0 +38.2 +22.6 +15.3
  Sun, Nov 9 83 Marquette W 100-77 77%     2 - 0 +29.9 +24.0 +4.2
  Wed, Nov 12 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101-70 96%     3 - 0 +24.4 +22.8 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 171 Incarnate Word W 69-61 95%     4 - 0 +3.9 -2.0 +6.7
  Thu, Nov 20 246 Lindenwood W 73-53 97%     5 - 0 +12.3 -2.3 +14.4
  Tue, Nov 25 71 Kansas St. W 86-69 82%     6 - 0 +21.8 +6.9 +13.5
  Sat, Nov 29 218 Bethune-Cookman W 100-56 96%     7 - 0 +37.5 +22.1 +14.8
  Wed, Dec 3 95 @Minnesota L 64-73 73%     7 - 1 0 - 1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Louisville L 77-80 38%    
  Tue, Dec 9 96 Penn St. W 82-70 88%    
  Sat, Dec 13 23 @Kentucky L 75-78 37%    
  Sat, Dec 20 350 Chicago St. W 90-61 99.7%   
  Mon, Dec 22 161 Siena W 79-61 95%    
  Sun, Jan 4 57 Washington W 79-71 77%    
  Wed, Jan 7 86 @Maryland W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 49 Nebraska W 79-72 73%    
  Tue, Jan 13 10 @Michigan St. L 67-74 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 27 Iowa W 72-69 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 69-84 9%    
  Fri, Jan 23 120 @Rutgers W 75-67 78%    
  Tue, Jan 27 2 Purdue L 71-76 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 31 @UCLA L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Feb 3 32 @USC L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 36 Wisconsin W 79-74 65%    
  Mon, Feb 9 80 Oregon W 79-69 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 17 @Illinois L 75-80 31%    
  Fri, Feb 20 2 @Purdue L 68-79 17%    
  Tue, Feb 24 60 Northwestern W 77-69 77%    
  Sun, Mar 1 10 Michigan St. L 70-71 45%    
  Wed, Mar 4 95 Minnesota W 74-62 86%    
  Sat, Mar 7 25 @Ohio St. L 73-76 40%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.8 1.7 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 5.5 3.0 0.4 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.7 4.6 0.7 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.1 1.4 0.1 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.9 2.4 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.8 6.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.9 6.3 9.5 13.5 14.9 15.1 12.5 9.9 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 42.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 19.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 18.8% 81.3% 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.4% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.5% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 3.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.2% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 4.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.9% 99.5% 3.0% 96.5% 5.4 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 12.5% 99.1% 2.2% 96.8% 6.4 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 15.1% 94.5% 1.9% 92.6% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.8 94.4%
10-10 14.9% 85.8% 0.7% 85.1% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.2 2.5 1.2 0.0 2.1 85.7%
9-11 13.5% 62.3% 0.5% 61.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.7 2.5 0.1 5.1 62.2%
8-12 9.5% 29.2% 0.1% 29.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.1 6.7 29.1%
7-13 6.3% 7.5% 0.3% 7.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 5.8 7.2%
6-14 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.9%
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.6% 2.0% 70.6% 7.0 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.5 9.8 10.6 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.8 0.3 27.4 72.1%