Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#57
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#51
Pace70.5#119
Improvement-0.3#202

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#63
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#17
Layup/Dunks+6.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#342
Freethrows+1.3#95
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#50
First Shot+3.5#73
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#44
Layups/Dunks-0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#153
Freethrows+2.4#39
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 41.0% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.5% 40.7% 13.9%
Average Seed 10.1 9.8 10.5
.500 or above 96.3% 100.0% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 17.4% 36.5% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.1% 2.1%
First Four10.2% 13.9% 8.1%
First Round18.9% 34.4% 10.2%
Second Round6.9% 13.2% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 64 - 13
Quad 24 - 18 - 14
Quad 36 - 014 - 14
Quad 44 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 234   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 94%     1 - 0 +12.5 +3.1 +8.7
  Nov 10, 2024 338   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +21.0 +12.2 +7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 84   South Carolina W 87-71 73%     3 - 0 +20.2 +15.6 +4.2
  Nov 21, 2024 154   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 88%     4 - 0 +9.0 -1.9 +11.2
  Nov 27, 2024 21   Louisville L 61-89 31%     4 - 1 -12.2 -6.6 -4.8
  Nov 28, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 73-89 23%     4 - 2 +2.4 +2.3 +1.0
  Nov 29, 2024 79   Providence W 89-73 63%     5 - 2 +23.3 +23.3 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 88%     6 - 2 +23.6 +13.3 +7.9
  Dec 06, 2024 171   Miami (OH) W 76-57 89%     7 - 2 +16.0 +4.2 +12.6
  Dec 09, 2024 76   Minnesota W 82-67 71%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +19.9 +13.5 +6.7
  Dec 13, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 68-85 38%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -3.4 +3.1 -6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 119   Chattanooga W 74-65 84%     9 - 3 +9.2 +0.0 +9.5
  Dec 29, 2024 196   Winthrop W 77-68 91%     10 - 3 +4.4 -1.6 +5.8
  Jan 02, 2025 63   Rutgers W 84-74 68%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.8 +7.7 +7.4
  Jan 05, 2025 62   @ Penn St. W 77-71 48%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +17.1 +9.0 +8.1
  Jan 08, 2025 59   USC W 82-69 61%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +20.6 +10.4 +10.0
  Jan 11, 2025 61   @ Iowa L 60-85 45%     13 - 4 4 - 2 -13.2 -12.4 -0.2
  Jan 14, 2025 18   Illinois L 69-94 38%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -11.4 -4.7 -4.4
  Jan 17, 2025 33   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 OT 29%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +17.2 +11.0 +6.2
  Jan 22, 2025 58   @ Northwestern L 70-79 41%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +3.8 +6.7 -3.3
  Jan 26, 2025 13   Maryland L 78-79 32%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +14.4 +21.0 -6.7
  Jan 31, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 76-81 19%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +15.0 +12.0 +2.9
  Feb 04, 2025 7   @ Wisconsin L 64-76 16%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +9.3 +2.5 +6.1
  Feb 08, 2025 22   Michigan L 67-70 40%     14 - 10 5 - 8 +10.1 +3.6 +6.4
  Feb 11, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. W 71-67 17%     15 - 10 6 - 8 +24.8 +14.0 +11.0
  Feb 14, 2025 27   UCLA L 68-72 44%     15 - 11 6 - 9 +8.2 +8.5 -0.6
  Feb 23, 2025 16   Purdue L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 62   Penn St. W 80-75 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 90   @ Washington W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 73-77 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   Ohio St. L 73-74 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 3.8 2.2 6.0 7th
8th 2.3 7.6 0.5 10.4 8th
9th 0.3 11.9 2.7 14.9 9th
10th 4.2 12.3 0.2 16.7 10th
11th 0.1 13.3 2.9 16.3 11th
12th 2.9 10.9 0.2 13.9 12th
13th 0.0 7.7 2.7 10.4 13th
14th 0.4 5.7 0.2 6.3 14th
15th 1.5 1.3 2.8 15th
16th 1.5 0.0 1.5 16th
17th 0.2 0.2 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 18th
Total 3.7 17.8 31.5 29.6 14.3 3.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 3.1% 93.2% 1.3% 92.0% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 93.2%
10-10 14.3% 67.3% 1.4% 65.9% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.5 2.8 0.1 4.7 66.9%
9-11 29.6% 30.5% 0.5% 30.0% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.4 0.7 20.6 30.2%
8-12 31.5% 7.1% 0.2% 6.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.4 29.3 6.9%
7-13 17.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.7 0.4%
6-14 3.7% 3.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.9% 0.5% 23.4% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.5 9.9 1.2 76.2 23.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 7.7 2.3 9.3 25.6 41.9 18.6 2.3
Lose Out 3.7%