Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#45
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#56
Pace73.3#70
Improvement-2.2#309

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#40
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#37
Layup/Dunks+6.3#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#323
Freethrows+1.4#99
Improvement-0.4#222

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#70
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#36
Layups/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows+1.9#58
Improvement-1.7#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.8% 10.3% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.6% 45.0% 27.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.3% 43.8% 26.1%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 79.0% 80.9% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.2% 42.2% 30.3%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.4% 5.9%
First Four6.1% 6.1% 5.5%
First Round40.5% 41.9% 24.9%
Second Round21.7% 22.6% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 7.3% 3.4%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 55 - 11
Quad 25 - 39 - 14
Quad 34 - 013 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +10.3 +2.4 +7.2
  Nov 10, 2024 327   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 97%     2 - 0 +22.6 +9.8 +11.8
  Nov 16, 2024 69   South Carolina W 87-71 70%     3 - 0 +21.3 +14.4 +6.5
  Nov 21, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 89%     4 - 0 +7.9 -1.9 +10.2
  Nov 27, 2024 51   Louisville L 61-89 52%     4 - 1 -17.8 -9.1 -7.9
  Nov 28, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 73-89 19%     4 - 2 +4.1 +3.2 +1.8
  Nov 29, 2024 73   Providence W 89-73 62%     5 - 2 +23.6 +26.4 -1.9
  Dec 03, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 86%     6 - 2 +25.2 +13.0 +9.8
  Dec 06, 2024 209   Miami (OH) W 76-57 92%     7 - 2 +13.7 +4.7 +9.8
  Dec 09, 2024 114   Minnesota W 82-67 83%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +15.4 +12.7 +3.0
  Dec 13, 2024 53   @ Nebraska L 68-85 41%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -4.0 +3.6 -7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 183   Chattanooga W 84-69 92%    
  Dec 29, 2024 187   Winthrop W 88-73 92%    
  Jan 02, 2025 64   Rutgers W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 05, 2025 30   @ Penn St. L 77-82 32%    
  Jan 08, 2025 76   USC W 79-73 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 42   @ Iowa L 82-85 38%    
  Jan 14, 2025 16   Illinois L 78-80 44%    
  Jan 17, 2025 38   @ Ohio St. L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 22, 2025 61   @ Northwestern L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 26, 2025 19   Maryland L 77-78 44%    
  Jan 31, 2025 20   @ Purdue L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 04, 2025 36   @ Wisconsin L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   Michigan L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 14, 2025 14   UCLA L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 23, 2025 20   Purdue L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 30   Penn St. W 80-79 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   @ Washington W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 73-79 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 38   Ohio St. W 77-75 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.4 0.2 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.2 2.7 0.2 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.8 0.1 8.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.5 0.8 0.0 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.6 1.9 0.1 8.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.7 0.3 7.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.5 16th
17th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.5 8.7 12.2 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.7 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 91.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 66.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.7% 99.9% 12.3% 87.5% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 4.9% 99.4% 8.3% 91.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-8 8.0% 97.0% 4.6% 92.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 96.9%
11-9 10.7% 88.4% 2.5% 85.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 88.1%
10-10 12.9% 74.6% 2.0% 72.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.0 1.5 0.0 3.3 74.1%
9-11 14.0% 39.3% 0.8% 38.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 38.9%
8-12 13.8% 10.5% 0.4% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 12.4 10.1%
7-13 12.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 0.9%
6-14 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.0%
5-15 5.5% 5.5
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 43.6% 2.1% 41.4% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 6.0 7.4 7.4 6.7 5.7 0.6 0.0 56.4 42.3%