Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +18.6 14
Results Rating +15.8 27
Consistency 0.18 326
Pace 74.4 38
Improvement -2.3 268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 17 A B- C+ B- A-
Defense A- 23 A- B+ C+ B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 145 A- 67% 23 +4.3 44
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 365 A+ 52% 3 -4.1 353
Three Pointers 53% 9 B+ 38% 23 +9.8 3
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.8 10 A +7.6 8
1st FG Attempt A 1.22 3
Second Chance B 34.6% 64 C 1.02 193 B- 0.35 83
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 108
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 151
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 119
Freethrows C 0.31 166 B+ 78% 19 B- 0.24 104
Total Offense A- +10.7 17

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 54% 89 B- 9.5% 98
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 259 B 3.2% 57
Three Pointers D+ 81% 257 C+ 0.8% 166
Total B 62% 53 B 4.4% 48


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 339 B 53% 54 -5.9 27
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 15 A- 32% 13 +1.4 297
Three Pointers 40% 210 B+ 30% 36 -2.7 66
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.5 15 A- -5.7 21
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 14
Second Chance A- 23.8% 13 C+ 1.00 126 B+ 0.24 24
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.5% 105
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 168
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 114
Freethrows B- 0.28 101 B- 71% 111 B- 0.20 91
Total Defense A- +7.9 23

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 34 B 14.4% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 23 B- 6.2% 86
Three Pointers C+ 82% 125 C 0.9% 156
Total B+ 47% 30 B- 6.7% 97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.7 6 18.7 343
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 252 0.06 1
Consistency 0.12 194 0.11 72
Improvement -3.0 315 +0.7 161

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Lock
Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 19 15 10
Results Rating Rank 35 26 15
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed 9 6 4
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 4 Seed 13% 20% 3%
Top 6 Seed 65% 82% 43%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99% 100% 99%
Average Seed 6.0 5.4 6.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round99% 100% 99%
Second Round79% 84% 72%
Sweet Sixteen37% 42% 30%
Elite Eight15% 17% 12%
Final Four5% 6% 4%
Championship Game2% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%
Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b6 - 27 - 10
Quad 26 - 012 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 359 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  98% 1 - 0 A+ +40 B +6 B C F+ A+ +26 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 345 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 100% +22  94% 2 - 0 A +20 A +12 A C B+ B +5 F+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 22 Kentucky W 96 - 88 71% +8  95% 3 - 0 A +21 A+ +18 A- B+ A+ B- +2 C+ C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 221 Ohio W 106 - 81 98% +14  99% 4 - 0 A +18 A+ +18 A- A+ B- C- -2 F+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 36 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 68% +1  47% 5 - 0 A+ +24 B+ +8 B+ F B- A+ +16 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 248 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 98% +20  89% 6 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +14 A+ C A- A+ +21 A+ A- B-
 Wed, Nov 26 331 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  99% 7 - 0 A+ +42 A+ +25 A+ A+ B- A+ +18 A+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 18 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 40% -10  0% 7 - 1 B+ +12 B- +5 B- F+ A+ A- +7 A+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 42 Indiana W 87 - 78 71% +12  99% 8 - 1 A +22 A- +11 A+ F D+ A +10 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 119 Memphis W 99 - 73 95% +17  92% 9 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +24 A+ A+ B C+ +1 A F+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 13 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 38% -11  2% 9 - 2 C +1 C- -1 B- C- F C+ +1 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 205 Montana W 94 - 54 98% +17  97% 10 - 2 A+ +35 A +12 B+ A+ F+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 73 @California W 90 - 70 77% +16  99% 11 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +19 A+ B+ B+ A+ +11 A+ A- F+
 Fri, Jan 2 66 @Stanford L 76 - 80 74% -3  21% 11 - 3 1 - 1 B- +8 A +14 B- A C D -6 C+ D- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Duke L 73 - 84 29% +2  64% 11 - 4 1 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 A- B- C+ A- +8 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 137 Boston College W 75 - 62 96% -1  25% 12 - 4 2 - 2 B +11 C+ +3 A+ F+ D- A +9 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 21 Virginia L 70 - 79 66% -9  0% 12 - 5 2 - 3 B- +5 B +6 B+ C- A C -1 C C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 95 @Pittsburgh W 100 - 59 82% +27  99% 13 - 5 3 - 3 A+ +50 A+ +36 A+ A+ A A+ +17 A+ A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 56 Virginia Tech W 85 - 71 86% +9  92% 14 - 5 4 - 3 A +21 A +11 B+ A+ D- A +9 C+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 26 1 @Duke L 52 - 83 14% -12  2% 14 - 6 4 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 C+ D+ C+ C+ +1 B C B+
 Sat, Jan 31 39 SMU W 88 - 74 78% -1  36% 15 - 6 5 - 4 A+ +24 B+ +8 A+ D+ A- A+ +15 B+ A A+
 Wed, Feb 4 85 Notre Dame W 76 - 65 91% +3  63% 16 - 6 6 - 4 A- +15 C+ +2 B B- D A+ +12 A+ C B-
 Sat, Feb 7 70 @Wake Forest W 88 - 80 75% +7  98% 17 - 6 7 - 4 A +20 A+ +16 A+ B A- B +4 A- B- F
 Mon, Feb 9 34 North Carolina St. W 118 - 77 76% +21  99% 18 - 6 8 - 4 A+ +52 A+ +30 A+ F A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 47 Baylor W 82 - 71 75% +5  71% 19 - 6 A +23 A +12 A+ A F+ A+ +11 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 17 39 @SMU L 85 - 95 58% -2  16% 19 - 7 8 - 5 B- +6 B +7 C A+ F C+ +1 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 148 Georgia Tech W 87 - 70 96% +13  98% 20 - 7 9 - 5 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ B- F B+ +7 A+ F A
 Mon, Feb 23 26 @North Carolina L 74 - 77 51% -3  32% 20 - 8 9 - 6 A- +15 A- +10 B+ A- C B +5 C+ D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 28 40 @Clemson L 75 - 80 58% -6  4% 20 - 9 9 - 7 B+ +11 A- +10 A B- B+ C+ +1 B- B- D+
 Tue, Mar 3 76 Syracuse W 77 - 62 90% +13  85% 21 - 9 10 - 7 A +20 B +6 A+ F A+ A+ +15 A+ D- C+
 Sat, Mar 7 35 @Miami (FL) W 81 - 79 55%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +19 A- +11 B+ A A- A- +8 B+ B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A+ B+ A 40% 11% 53% A- A B C B- C+ C B+ B- A- B A- B+ A- 31% 29% 40% A A- A- C+ B+ C+ B- B- B-
1.24 67% 52% 38% +8 +2 1.22 35% 1.0 .35 16% .31 78% .24 0.97 53% 32% 30% -6 -1 0.88 24% 1.0 .24 18% .28 71% .22
Nov
3		 South Carolina St. B A F B B- 44% 6% 50% B- B C- B- C F+ A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 24% 41% 35% A A+ B B+ B+ A+ F+ F F
1.28 75% 0% 37% +8 +2 1.22 36% 1.3 .45 21% .51 79% .40 0.55 42% 15% 12% -25 -4 0.45 26% 0.8 .21 31% .39 77% .30
Nov
6		 Jackson St. A A A+ C A- 48% 5% 46% A A B- D+ C B+ A+ C A+ B A C+ F F 30% 25% 45% C- F+ A+ A+ A+ D- B- A+ A
1.37 74% 67% 35% +10 +3 1.27 41% 1.0 .41 13% .52 74% .39 0.91 41% 36% 44% +1 -1 1.02 17% 0.6 .10 16% .25 56% .14
Nov
11		 Kentucky A+ B A+ C- A- 30% 13% 57% B+ A- B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ D- A+ B- D+ D+ C C+ 32% 18% 51% B- C+ B+ D+ C+ B+ A D+ A-
1.25 61% 63% 31% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.9 .29 8% .44 68% .30 1.15 67% 40% 34% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.2 .40 18% .26 75% .19
Nov
15		 Ohio A+ C C- A+ A 35% 15% 50% C A- A A+ A+ B- A+ C A+ C- C D- F F 27% 31% 42% A F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
1.39 58% 38% 44% +8 +1 1.19 44% 1.5 .67 14% .46 73% .34 1.06 57% 50% 41% +8 -2 1.13 33% 0.4 .14 22% .44 77% .34
Nov
21		 Cincinnati B+ A+ F D+ B 30% 13% 57% B B+ B F F B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- B+ 37% 24% 39% C+ B+ A- A+ A+ B+ C A B-
1.04 71% 17% 31% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.4 .11 18% .48 86% .41 0.90 58% 25% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 0.5 .12 18% .27 63% .17
Nov
24		 Eastern Michigan A+ C A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B+ A+ B- D C A- C+ D- C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 42% 25% A+ A+ B- A+ A- B- D- B- D
1.30 57% 60% 46% +11 +2 1.27 32% 0.9 .30 12% .32 68% .22 0.69 44% 20% 17% -19 -3 0.58 25% 0.7 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Nov
26		 NJIT A+ A+ F A+ A+ 28% 4% 68% B A+ A+ C A+ B- F A+ D- A+ C A+ A+ A+ 20% 35% 45% A+ A+ A+ F A D+ A+ A+ A+
1.51 75% 0% 44% +13 +1 1.32 53% 1.1 .55 13% .23 86% .20 0.68 55% 21% 24% -13 -3 0.69 7% 1.7 .12 16% .12 57% .07
Dec
3		 Arkansas B- B+ A+ F C 42% 7% 51% A B- C+ F F+ A+ C+ A+ B A- A+ C A+ A+ 37% 33% 30% A+ A+ F F F B- F D+ F
1.06 64% 50% 23% -5 +2 0.97 30% 0.8 .23 12% .27 78% .21 1.18 45% 39% 25% -9 -2 0.81 43% 1.5 .64 13% .53 77% .41
Dec
6		 Indiana A- B F A+ A+ 35% 6% 58% A+ A+ D F F D+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ A- A+ 35% 9% 56% C+ A+ B- F F A- B- C- C+
1.17 59% 0% 46% +9 +2 1.23 23% 0.7 .16 18% .46 86% .39 1.05 53% 20% 30% -7 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 18% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Memphis A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 10% 61% B A+ C A+ A+ B A A+ A+ C+ B- A B A- 35% 47% 18% A+ A D+ F+ F+ D- D B- D+
1.38 86% 0% 50% +19 +1 1.41 32% 1.5 .48 18% .43 84% .36 1.02 55% 26% 30% -8 -4 0.79 38% 1.3 .50 15% .33 70% .23
Dec
16		 Tennessee C- B+ A+ F C 38% 4% 58% A+ B- A- F C- F B+ D- B- C+ F D F+ F 47% 20% 33% C- F+ A+ B A+ D+ F A- F
0.90 63% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 0.6 .19 23% .34 61% .21 1.20 71% 44% 40% +10 +1 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 16% .48 64% .31
Dec
20		 Montana A A+ F F+ B 42% 5% 53% A B+ A A+ A+ F+ B- B- B- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 27% 27% 47% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- F C-
1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23 0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23
Dec
30		 California A+ C A+ A+ A+ 43% 3% 53% A A+ A D+ B+ B+ F+ A+ C A+ A+ A B A+ 31% 21% 48% C A+ A+ D+ A- F+ F C F
1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20 0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33
Jan
2		 Stanford A A+ A+ F C+ 33% 16% 51% B- B- A+ F A C A- A+ A+ D C+ B- F D+ 36% 27% 36% A+ C+ D- D+ D- C- F A- F
1.19 71% 57% 23% -1 0 1.00 51% 0.8 .43 19% .41 86% .35 1.25 56% 33% 44% +3 -1 1.07 40% 1.1 .43 14% .57 68% .38
Jan
6		 Duke B F+ A+ C+ B+ 25% 15% 60% B A- B- B+ B- C+ C- B+ C+ A- F+ F C D+ 41% 20% 39% A+ C- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B+ D-
0.98 43% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 19% .20 75% .15 1.13 71% 60% 35% +10 0 1.24 23% 0.5 .11 16% .45 68% .30
Jan
10		 Boston College C+ A+ B+ D- A+ 39% 15% 46% B A+ F+ F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ A B+ C+ C C 17% 36% 47% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A
1.08 83% 43% 29% +7 +1 1.17 20% 0.7 .13 19% .44 76% .33 0.89 50% 38% 33% -2 -4 0.91 16% 0.4 .07 9% .25 44% .11
Jan
13		 Virginia B F A+ B B 35% 12% 54% A B+ A F C- A B F C+ C A- A+ F D+ 14% 23% 63% A+ C D+ B+ C+ A F F+ F
1.06 33% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 12% .31 67% .21 1.19 50% 30% 44% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 20% .55 79% .43
Jan
17		 Pittsburgh A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 8% 51% A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A C A+ B- A+ B A- A A+ 35% 20% 45% B A+ A+ D- A D+ C B+ C+
1.53 73% 75% 48% +20 +2 1.45 27% 1.8 .50 12% .26 87% .23 0.90 53% 30% 27% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.1 .24 15% .29 63% .18
Jan
24		 Virginia Tech A C+ A+ C B- 48% 4% 48% A+ B+ A A+ A+ D- C B+ C+ A A+ A+ F C- 20% 29% 51% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.20 60% 50% 32% 0 +3 1.08 41% 1.3 .54 21% .23 77% .18 1.00 27% 25% 54% +5 -2 1.07 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 63% .09
Jan
26		 Duke D+ F F C C- 28% 6% 66% A C+ C F D+ C+ B C B- C+ B- F B- B+ 54% 4% 42% D- B F A C B+ C+ C+ C+
0.80 38% 0% 32% -10 +1 0.85 22% 0.6 .12 19% .25 69% .17 1.28 59% 100% 33% +3 +3 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 19% .34 72% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 SMU B+ A+ D+ C- A+ 35% 11% 54% A A+ D+ D+ D+ A- A+ D+ A- A+ F C- B B 22% 33% 44% A+ B+ A+ D+ A A+ A+ A A+
1.18 90% 33% 32% +9 +1 1.23 26% 0.9 .24 15% .36 70% .25 0.99 75% 44% 33% +5 -3 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 21% .15 67% .10
Feb
4		 Notre Dame C+ A A+ F C+ 45% 8% 47% A+ B A+ F B- D B- D+ C+ A+ A A+ D A+ 26% 30% 44% A- A+ B+ F C B- A- A+ A+
1.10 70% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.7 .28 17% .32 72% .23 0.94 50% 19% 38% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.2 .33 17% .25 43% .11
Feb
7		 Wake Forest A+ B A+ A- A+ 41% 13% 46% B A+ F+ A+ B A- A+ B A+ B D- A+ C+ B+ 28% 32% 40% A+ A- B C- B- F F+ B+ D
1.24 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 21% 1.7 .36 16% .52 77% .40 1.13 67% 29% 33% -1 -2 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 8% .39 72% .28
Feb
9		 North Carolina St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% A- A+ C F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% A+ A+ A+ F A+ C B+ F C
1.47 69% 50% 62% +26 +2 1.59 27% 0.3 .07 12% .38 81% .31 0.96 75% 21% 15% -8 -1 0.84 15% 1.5 .23 12% .27 89% .24
Feb
14		 Baylor A A- F A+ A 54% 9% 37% A+ A+ C A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F C A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% C A+ C- A+ A+ C- F F F
1.21 68% 25% 41% +8 +3 1.24 29% 1.5 .43 21% .37 90% .33 1.05 86% 43% 11% -5 -2 0.89 39% 0.5 .18 13% .51 83% .42
Feb
17		 SMU B F C+ C+ D+ 35% 14% 51% B+ C B+ A+ A+ F C- A C+ C+ C- F F F 33% 37% 30% A F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A
1.11 45% 38% 34% -4 +1 0.95 36% 1.6 .56 22% .25 80% .20 1.24 65% 68% 50% +21 -2 1.38 17% 0.4 .07 13% .18 83% .15
Feb
21		 Georgia Tech B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 28% 9% 64% B+ A+ D A+ B- F A- A+ A+ B+ F D A+ A 27% 42% 31% A+ A+ B- F F A A F C+
1.18 54% 75% 43% +11 +1 1.26 24% 1.5 .36 24% .36 95% .34 0.95 71% 41% 13% -5 -4 0.85 29% 1.7 .50 23% .21 92% .19
Feb
23		 North Carolina A- D+ F+ B B- 33% 13% 55% A B+ A+ C- A- C C C+ C B F+ D A- B- 42% 18% 40% C C+ A+ F D+ C+ B- A+ A+
1.11 50% 29% 37% -2 +1 1.00 39% 0.8 .32 15% .19 73% .14 1.16 71% 44% 30% +4 +1 1.12 22% 1.9 .41 14% .33 47% .16
Feb
28		 Clemson A- A+ A+ F+ A- 35% 7% 58% A A B+ C- B- B+ F+ F F C+ A+ F C C 31% 24% 44% A+ B- A+ F B- D+ F B- F
1.07 68% 75% 28% +1 +1 1.07 28% 0.9 .25 16% .20 58% .12 1.14 43% 73% 35% +4 -1 1.09 16% 1.6 .26 13% .56 71% .39
Mar
3		 Syracuse B F A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% B- A+ D F F A+ F A+ F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 29% 33% 39% A+ A+ A F D- C+ B D- C+
1.14 39% 57% 45% +5 +1 1.14 26% 0.6 .14 13% .19 82% .15 0.92 57% 25% 21% -12 -2 0.73 24% 1.7 .41 16% .30 71% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 3.9 3.9 5th
6th 9.7 51.6 61.3 6th
7th 34.8 34.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 44.5 55.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 55.5% 99.9% 9.4% 90.4% 5.4 0.5 3.2 7.6 16.9 17.6 8.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
10-8 44.5% 99.1% 6.9% 92.2% 6.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 5.6 12.2 12.2 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.4 99.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 8.3% 91.2% 6.0 0.5 99.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 3.9 6.5 30.0 37.9 21.6 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.2% 100.0% 4.8 0.8 8.6 23.5 43.7 21.0 2.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.8% 99.9% 5.5 0.0 2.0 10.2 35.3 38.4 13.2 0.9
Lose Out 8.5% 98.4% 7.7 0.1 0.3 2.8 14.9 27.1 28.8 16.0 7.7 0.8