Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #189
Pace 73.7 #65
Improvement -0.7 #227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 C+ D+ C C D+
Defense #236 C- D+ C- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.20 #133 -0.4 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #101 1.04 #2 +4.9 #15
Three Pointers 39% #224 0.94 #276 -2.6 #277
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #124 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 18.4 #150 69% #285 12.7 #184
Second Chance 29.1% #230 0.95 #300 0.28 #272
Turnovers 16.4% #166
Total Offense -0.5 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.10 #106 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.84 #305 -0.8 #251
Three Pointers 38% #268 1.08 #271 +0.2 #168
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #212 -1.2 #213
Freethrows 17.1 #156 75% #324 12.8 #187
Second Chance 33.0% #282 1.10 #255 0.36 #285
Turnovers 15.7% #227
Total Defense -1.9 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 0.5% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #98 1.8% #213
Possession Length 16.7 #120 17.1 #138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.15 #102
Improvement +0.0 #176 -0.7 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.5% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 36.4% 60.3% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 88.7% 64.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.8% 2.5% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 49% +2  0 - 1 -6 +4 B+ F B- -10 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 90 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 29% +2  1 - 1 +7 +1 A F A+ +6 A A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 42 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 6% -15  1 - 2 -15 -4 D- A F -11 C- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 13 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  1 - 3 -4 +10 A+ F F -12 C+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 269 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 74% -4  1 - 4 -12 -2 D+ F A+ -11 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 86 George Mason L 69 - 92 19% -20  1 - 5 -16 +1 C+ A- D -18 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 155 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 40% -4  1 - 6 -12 -13 F F F +2 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 341 Maine W 79 - 57 87% +12  2 - 6 +7 +10 B- C+ C -1 B- D- A
 Sat, Dec 6 163 Marshall W 88 - 81 54% +6  3 - 6 +4 +9 A- D+ A+ -6 B D D
 Sat, Dec 13 136 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 35% +3  4 - 6 +7 +6 A A+ B+ +0 A- F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 129 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 45% -9  4 - 7 0 - 1 -11 -13 F C D- +1 A- D- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 322 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 67% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 +9 -4 F F C +11 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 198 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 39% -9  6 - 7 2 - 1 +1 +0 A- F F +1 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 176 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 57% +3  7 - 7 3 - 1 -1 +7 A+ D C+ -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 201 Buffalo W 91 - 80 62% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +5 +8 A+ A+ F -3 B D+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 166 @Toledo L 85 - 101 32% -4  8 - 8 4 - 2 -14 +10 C B B -24 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 16 296 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 59% -8  8 - 9 4 - 3 -10 -1 D+ F C -9 D- C- C-
 Tue, Jan 20 318 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 83% +5  9 - 9 5 - 3 -10 -0 C D+ D -9 F B- B-
 Fri, Jan 23 64 Akron L 81 - 89 23%
 Tue, Jan 27 148 @Kent St. L 82 - 88 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 201 @Buffalo L 78 - 81 39%
 Tue, Feb 3 260 Western Michigan W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 240 @Old Dominion L 77 - 78 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 89 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 89 13%
 Tue, Feb 17 296 Ball St. W 77 - 69 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 318 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 Toledo W 82 - 81 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 176 @Massachusetts L 78 - 82 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 89 Miami (OH) L 80 - 86 30%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2 -1 C+ D+ C -2 C- D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.8 1.5 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.3 7.8 2.3 0.3 16.4 4th
5th 0.4 6.2 11.8 3.7 0.3 22.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 11.2 4.3 0.3 19.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 8.7 5.2 0.3 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 4.4 0.5 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.4 2.8 8.9 18.0 23.8 22.2 14.7 6.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 90.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 18.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.4% 8.0% 8.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 2.3% 4.4% 4.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2
12-6 6.6% 4.0% 4.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
11-7 14.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.2
10-8 22.2% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 21.7
9-9 23.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 23.4
8-10 18.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 17.9
7-11 8.9% 8.9
6-12 2.8% 2.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.4 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%