Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 Lipscomb 30.4%   15   6 - 6 1 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +0.2      -0.6 183 +0.9 129 73.2 77 +0.9 153 +2.3 5
193 Florida Gulf Coast 16.8%   4 - 8 0 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 7 -2.1      +2.2 115 -4.3 309 70.0 168 -5.7 254 -18.2 10
194 Austin Peay 17.8%   5 - 5 1 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 6 -2.1      -3.4 265 +1.3 120 70.7 148 -0.4 167 -0.6 6
236 Queens 10.1%   5 - 8 1 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -4.4      +3.8 82 -8.2 358 70.7 152 -3.1 220 +7.0 3
254 Eastern Kentucky 6.8%   2 - 10 0 - 1 11 - 18 9 - 9 -5.2      -0.9 191 -4.3 310 69.1 189 -9.0 304 -16.6 9
266 North Alabama 5.5%   3 - 7 0 - 1 11 - 16 8 - 10 -6.0      -3.6 272 -2.3 251 66.6 257 -6.1 257 -30.1 12
268 Central Arkansas 5.9%   4 - 8 1 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -6.0      -3.2 260 -2.8 266 70.7 149 -5.6 252 +10.1 2
272 Bellarmine 4.7%   3 - 8 0 - 1 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.2      +1.4 130 -7.6 351 66.1 271 -7.7 281 -21.3 11
313 West Georgia 0.0%   5 - 6 1 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -9.1      -4.1 281 -5.0 327 70.8 144 -3.0 215 +6.0 4
326 Jacksonville 1.2%   3 - 9 0 - 1 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.9      -5.3 312 -4.6 321 62.6 340 -7.5 275 -12.0 7
342 Stetson 0.5%   3 - 9 1 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11.9      -6.4 330 -5.5 335 68.7 211 -8.4 292 +12.2 1
350 North Florida 0.2%   0 - 12 0 - 1 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12.8      -2.2 229 -10.5 365 78.6 19 -18.0 354 -14.3 8




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 29 58 Cincinnati 89 153 Lipscomb 62   
Mon, Dec 29 30 Auburn 106 236 Queens 65   
Thu, Jan 1 254 Eastern Kentucky 89 236 Queens 91   
Thu, Jan 1 268 Central Arkansas 85 193 Florida Gulf Coast 83   
Thu, Jan 1 266 North Alabama 67 342 Stetson 70   
Thu, Jan 1 272 Bellarmine 85 313 West Georgia 87   
Thu, Jan 1 326 Jacksonville 57 153 Lipscomb 76   
Thu, Jan 1 194 Austin Peay 102 350 North Florida 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 3 272 Bellarmine 81 236 Queens 85 68%   
Sat, Jan 3 193 Florida Gulf Coast 76 266 North Alabama 75 53%   
Sat, Jan 3 254 Eastern Kentucky 77 313 West Georgia 76 54%   
Sat, Jan 3 194 Austin Peay 74 326 Jacksonville 63 84%   
Sat, Jan 3 268 Central Arkansas 78 342 Stetson 69 80%   
Sat, Jan 3 153 Lipscomb 92 350 North Florida 76 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.2 48.7 21.4 12.3 7.0 4.8 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 3.8 17.3 18.1 17.8 14.1 11.2 8.1 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4
Austin Peay 3.3 26.0 20.4 15.4 12.1 8.5 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.1
Queens 4.1 14.7 17.7 16.2 13.8 11.7 8.6 6.4 4.5 3.0 2.1 1.0 0.3
Eastern Kentucky 6.0 5.1 7.4 9.0 10.6 12.7 12.1 11.4 10.5 8.1 6.5 4.7 2.0
North Alabama 6.6 2.8 5.7 8.2 9.3 10.6 11.3 12.1 11.8 9.9 8.8 6.4 3.1
Central Arkansas 5.3 6.7 10.8 12.6 12.8 13.2 12.0 10.7 7.9 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.0
Bellarmine 6.8 2.8 5.1 7.3 8.5 9.8 11.3 11.9 12.1 10.7 9.2 7.6 3.7
West Georgia 7.3 2.0 4.0 5.4 7.2 9.3 11.3 11.9 11.9 11.6 11.1 8.7 5.6
Jacksonville 8.5 0.5 1.3 2.7 3.8 5.8 7.5 10.3 12.6 13.5 15.0 15.1 11.9
Stetson 9.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.6 3.8 6.0 8.2 11.6 14.8 16.9 18.1 15.0
North Florida 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.4 7.2 10.6 15.1 21.4 34.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 5.8 9.9 13.8 17.2 17.3 14.9 9.1 4.7 1.2
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.9 6.2 10.4 14.1 16.6 16.6 13.3 9.5 4.8 1.7 0.3
Austin Peay 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.5 8.2 11.2 14.1 15.6 14.5 12.0 8.5 3.7 1.4 0.4
Queens 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.4 4.8 7.6 11.2 14.5 15.8 14.3 12.4 8.4 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.1 7.9 11.6 14.0 14.8 14.7 11.5 7.5 5.3 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
North Alabama 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 6.8 9.8 13.1 15.4 14.4 12.7 9.1 6.7 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.0 5.2 8.6 12.5 15.0 15.6 14.4 10.6 7.1 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.5 7.8 11.0 13.0 15.2 14.0 11.7 9.1 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
West Georgia 8 - 10 0.1 1.1 2.2 5.8 8.9 13.0 14.2 14.9 13.6 10.7 7.0 4.5 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.9 10.1 13.8 15.3 15.8 13.1 9.9 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stetson 6 - 12 0.7 3.2 7.9 12.6 15.7 17.5 16.0 11.0 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 1.0 4.4 9.7 14.3 17.0 17.1 14.6 10.0 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 48.7% 34.7 10.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 17.3% 9.7 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 26.0% 16.5 7.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Queens 14.7% 7.9 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 5.1% 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 2.8% 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 6.7% 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 2.8% 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 30.4% 30.4% 0.0% 15   0.1 0.9 4.7 11.4 10.5 2.8 69.6 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.0 6.4 83.2 0.0%
Austin Peay 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.6 7.7 4.0 82.2 0.0%
Queens 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 5.4 89.9 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 5.1 93.2 0.0%
North Alabama 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 94.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.3 94.1 0.0%
Bellarmine 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 95.3 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 30.4% 0.5% 30.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.8% 2.8% 15.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 17.8% 1.2% 17.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 10.1% 2.6% 9.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.8% 3.9% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 5.5% 2.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 5.9% 2.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 4.7% 2.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 91.0% 0.9 9.0 91.0
2nd Round 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0