Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
174 Eastern Kentucky 19.7%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -1.1      +1.2 129 -2.4 252 68.5 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Florida Gulf Coast 17.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -1.5      -1.2 209 -0.3 176 64.0 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Lipscomb 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -1.9      -1.3 214 -0.6 182 66.0 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 North Alabama 16.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 6 -2.1      -0.6 181 -1.5 220 66.6 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Queens 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -4.6      -0.4 173 -4.2 307 70.7 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Jacksonville 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -5.0      -4.5 301 -0.5 180 68.7 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Austin Peay 5.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -6.3      -3.3 270 -3.1 278 65.5 249 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 Bellarmine 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.4      -2.2 239 -7.1 356 66.1 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 North Florida 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -10.1      -2.2 236 -7.9 361 78.6 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 West Georgia 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -11.8      -5.5 325 -6.3 351 69.5 133 0.0 1 0.0 1
350 Stetson 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -12.2      -5.0 316 -7.1 355 69.0 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
358 Central Arkansas 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -14.5      -6.7 349 -7.8 360 65.9 240 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Eastern Kentucky 3.5 25.8 18.6 14.4 11.6 8.7 7.3 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 3.6 23.5 18.1 14.6 12.3 9.7 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.3
Lipscomb 3.9 21.2 17.1 14.2 12.5 10.1 8.0 5.9 4.5 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.4
North Alabama 3.8 22.0 16.9 14.8 12.7 9.8 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4
Queens 4.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 12.2 11.6 11.0 9.2 7.2 5.5 3.6 2.4 1.2
Jacksonville 5.2 9.7 10.7 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.2 9.9 7.9 6.3 4.7 2.9 1.5
Austin Peay 6.2 5.7 7.5 8.8 9.9 10.5 11.6 11.6 10.3 9.1 7.4 5.1 2.6
Bellarmine 7.6 2.2 3.5 4.4 6.5 7.8 9.7 11.1 12.3 12.9 12.3 10.3 7.1
North Florida 7.9 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.9 10.7 12.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 8.9
West Georgia 8.6 0.9 1.8 2.5 4.0 5.6 6.9 9.0 11.1 13.2 15.3 15.6 13.9
Stetson 8.9 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.3 4.7 6.4 8.6 11.0 14.0 15.1 17.1 15.8
Central Arkansas 9.8 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.9 6.0 8.5 11.6 16.2 20.1 27.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Eastern Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.3 4.9 7.1 8.8 10.9 12.1 12.7 12.6 10.4 7.3 4.4 1.3
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.4 11.4 12.5 12.9 11.8 9.9 6.6 3.8 1.2
Lipscomb 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 10.0 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.2 9.1 5.7 3.2 1.0
North Alabama 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.7 7.8 10.0 11.5 12.8 12.2 11.6 9.4 6.1 3.0 1.0
Queens 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.3 4.9 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.9 11.9 11.1 9.7 7.5 5.2 3.0 1.3 0.3
Jacksonville 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.0 7.4 9.6 11.4 11.8 11.5 10.4 8.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.3
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.4 8.3 10.2 11.3 11.5 11.3 9.7 8.2 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Bellarmine 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.9 8.2 10.5 11.9 12.1 11.2 10.1 8.1 6.5 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Florida 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.5 6.8 9.3 11.2 11.8 11.9 10.8 9.2 7.6 5.9 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
West Georgia 6 - 12 1.3 3.4 6.6 9.3 11.4 12.9 12.5 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 6 - 12 1.3 4.0 7.4 10.4 12.7 12.6 12.8 11.2 9.0 6.9 4.7 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 3.1 7.7 11.6 14.3 14.8 13.2 11.0 8.6 6.1 4.0 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Eastern Kentucky 25.8% 17.3 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 23.5% 15.6 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 21.2% 13.6 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 22.0% 14.1 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
Queens 11.4% 6.8 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 9.7% 5.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 5.7% 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Eastern Kentucky 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.0 5.1 4.9 3.7 80.3 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 82.4 0.0%
Lipscomb 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 4.7 4.6 3.2 82.9 0.0%
North Alabama 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 4.6 4.4 3.6 83.2 0.0%
Queens 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.0 91.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.3 91.3 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 94.3 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 97.7 0.0%
North Florida 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 98.1 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Eastern Kentucky 19.7% 1.9% 19.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 17.6% 1.6% 17.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 17.1% 1.6% 17.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 16.8% 1.9% 16.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 9.0% 1.7% 8.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 8.7% 2.0% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.7% 1.6% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 1.9% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 94.3% 1.0 5.7 89.7 4.6
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0