Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Austin Peay 32.6%   15   16 - 6 12 - 1 +0.1      -0.9 184 +1.0 137 71.6 100 +3.2 111 +7.7 1
187 Lipscomb 17.9%   14 - 10 9 - 4 -1.8      -0.9 186 -0.9 204 72.8 69 -1.1 179 -2.6 3
190 Central Arkansas 20.2%   14 - 10 11 - 2 -2.0      -0.9 188 -1.0 208 69.8 146 -1.5 187 +2.5 2
218 Queens 13.8%   13 - 12 9 - 4 -3.0      +3.7 86 -6.7 341 71.4 110 -3.7 228 -3.2 4
243 Florida Gulf Coast 6.7%   9 - 15 5 - 8 -4.6      -1.8 214 -2.8 261 69.5 155 -7.2 279 -8.6 8
267 Eastern Kentucky 3.7%   7 - 17 5 - 8 -6.0      +0.2 155 -6.2 335 68.5 190 -8.3 301 -8.5 7
283 Bellarmine 3.4%   9 - 14 6 - 7 -7.0      +2.7 103 -9.7 364 64.0 306 -7.0 274 -7.3 5
308 Jacksonville 1.1%   7 - 17 4 - 9 -8.9      -5.5 315 -3.4 283 61.7 345 -9.1 307 -10.3 10
317 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 13 6 - 7 -9.6      -4.2 285 -5.4 326 70.5 130 -7.4 288 -8.4 6
333 Stetson 0.4%   7 - 17 5 - 8 -10.9      -4.9 301 -6.1 332 68.3 194 -9.3 310 -8.7 9
344 North Alabama 0.0%   5 - 17 2 - 11 -12.2      -5.1 307 -7.0 345 64.8 282 -11.6 337 -16.9 12
345 North Florida 0.2%   4 - 20 4 - 9 -12.2      -0.5 167 -11.7 365 76.0 27 -13.4 346 -10.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 190 Central Arkansas 72 344 North Alabama 65   
Wed, Feb 11 283 Bellarmine 76 190 Central Arkansas 84   
Wed, Feb 11 152 Austin Peay 95 218 Queens 87   
Wed, Feb 11 308 Jacksonville 62 333 Stetson 67   
Wed, Feb 11 267 Eastern Kentucky 61 187 Lipscomb 75   
Wed, Feb 11 344 North Alabama 73 317 West Georgia 82   
Wed, Feb 11 243 Florida Gulf Coast 90 345 North Florida 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 187 Lipscomb 82 218 Queens 84 57%   
Sat, Feb 14 152 Austin Peay 83 283 Bellarmine 73 83%   
Sat, Feb 14 190 Central Arkansas 82 317 West Georgia 71 84%   
Sat, Feb 14 308 Jacksonville 81 345 North Florida 75 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 243 Florida Gulf Coast 80 333 Stetson 71 81%   
Sun, Feb 15 267 Eastern Kentucky 77 344 North Alabama 74 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.1 90.3 9.3 0.3 0.0
Lipscomb 3.2 0.8 16.4 49.9 32.6 0.3 0.1
Central Arkansas 1.9 23.0 65.8 9.6 1.7
Queens 3.2 0.8 17.1 41.0 40.7 0.4 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0 0.0 2.4 49.6 22.9 11.3 6.7 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.7 0.1 1.7 28.4 21.8 17.7 14.1 10.5 4.9 0.9 0.0
Bellarmine 6.2 0.2 2.6 35.2 25.6 18.1 10.3 6.1 2.0 0.0
Jacksonville 8.7 0.0 4.7 8.3 13.6 17.5 19.3 20.4 15.3 0.9
West Georgia 6.8 0.2 1.5 19.6 22.1 24.7 17.8 11.1 3.1 0.1
Stetson 8.1 0.2 9.6 12.5 15.2 17.7 17.9 19.0 7.9 0.2
North Alabama 11.8 0.2 0.3 1.3 2.1 13.8 82.3
North Florida 9.8 1.4 3.1 5.7 9.3 14.6 21.5 41.0 3.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 0.2 2.0 10.7 25.8 37.6 23.8
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.5 6.0 20.8 34.2 28.6 10.0
Central Arkansas 14 - 4 17 - 12 0.9 7.1 23.0 36.2 26.0 6.8
Queens 12 - 6 16 - 14 0.8 8.1 24.4 34.9 24.5 7.3
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 10 12 - 17 0.5 4.6 15.5 31.1 33.5 14.9
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 2.3 12.5 26.8 32.1 20.6 5.8
Bellarmine 8 - 10 11 - 17 6.9 23.5 34.8 24.9 8.7 1.3
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 3.1 15.5 33.5 31.8 13.8 2.4
West Georgia 8 - 10 12 - 16 11.2 36.6 33.9 14.9 3.2 0.3
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 9.8 30.5 33.8 19.5 5.6 0.8
North Alabama 3 - 15 6 - 21 18.2 36.1 30.3 12.3 2.9 0.3
North Florida 6 - 12 6 - 23 14.9 32.2 32.8 15.5 4.1 0.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 90.3% 76.4 13.1 0.8 0.0
Lipscomb 0.8% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0
Central Arkansas 23.0% 9.4 12.8 0.8 0.0
Queens 0.8% 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Alabama
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 1.4 8.6 16.3 6.1 0.2 67.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 5.5 8.5 2.7 82.2 0.0%
Central Arkansas 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.9 5.7 11.0 2.7 79.8 0.0%
Queens 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.3 5.8 6.5 86.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 5.4 93.3 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 3.7 96.3 0.0%
Bellarmine 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.4% 0.9 6.6 93.4
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 32.6% 0.0% 32.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 17.9% 0.3% 17.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 20.2% 0.3% 20.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 13.8% 2.0% 12.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.7% 4.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.7% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%