Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +12.5 42
Expected Predictive Rating +10.3 57
Pace 69.6 152
Improvement -0.7 214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #28 B A B B- F+
Defense B- #81 B- B- C B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 355 67% 21 -2.6 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 26 46% 27 +6.0 4
Three Pointers 40% 196 37% 52 +1.7 118
1st FG Attempt 1.12 50 +5.1 50
Second Chance 38.8% 13 1.15 43 0.45 14
Turnovers 14.5% 41
Freethrows 0.33 110 74% 143 0.24 105
Total Offense +9.1 28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 23% 363 59% 215 +8.7 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 1 41% 296 -8.6 365
Three Pointers 37% 284 32% 92 +2.9 65
1st FG Attempt 0.96 76 +3.1 78
Second Chance 29.0% 114 0.92 45 0.27 68
Turnovers 16.6% 200
Freethrows 0.26 42 73% 253 0.19 55
Total Defense +3.4 81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.9 351 -3.5 1
Shot Type Accuracy +7.2 15 +0.5 205
Possession Length 16.5 91 17.8 267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 42 0.16 119
Improvement -2.4 #307 +1.7 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 28% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14% 27% 9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 66% 86% 58%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 1% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 2% 1%
First Four9% 17% 7%
First Round10% 21% 6%
Second Round4% 9% 3%
Sweet Sixteen1% 3% 1%
Elite Eight0% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisville (Neutral) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 33 - 011 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 91% +6  57% 1 - 0 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ C- B+ C+ +1 D A+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 46 Washington W 78 - 69 66% +4  76% 2 - 0 A- +17 B- +5 A- D+ A- A +12 A A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 214 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 95% +10  96% 3 - 0 B- +7 A+ +14 B+ A+ B D- -8 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 61 Creighton W 81 - 74 64% +5  94% 4 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 F+ A+ B- B +5 C B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 20 St. John's L 81 - 96 31% -12  0% 4 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 C- A A+ F+ -9 F F+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 43 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 51% +4  72% 5 - 1 A +22 A+ +24 A+ B A+ C- -2 C- A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 254 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 96% +7  58% 6 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A+ C D- -8 B+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 86 @Memphis L 71 - 78 62% -2  19% 6 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +3 D B B+ C -1 A D F
 Wed, Dec 10 307 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 98% +16  93% 7 - 2 A +18 A- +10 B B+ B- B +6 A- B+ D-
 Fri, Dec 19 351 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 99% +29  96% 8 - 2 A+ +41 A+ +17 A+ C- C A+ +18 A+ C+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 264 Southern W 111 - 67 97% +15  87% 9 - 2 A+ +35 A+ +32 A+ A A+ B- +3 A F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 50 @TCU L 63 - 69 45% -7  0% 9 - 3 0 - 1 B- +8 C+ +2 D- B- A- B +5 A B B-
 Wed, Jan 7 8 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 31% -3  42% 9 - 4 0 - 2 B- +8 D -5 F A+ B+ A +12 A+ B+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 5 Houston L 55 - 77 25% -11  20% 9 - 5 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 C+ B D C -1 A- C D-
 Tue, Jan 13 59 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 51% +13  99% 10 - 5 1 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +26 A+ A+ C+ C+ +2 C+ D C
 Fri, Jan 16 12 @Kansas L 62 - 80 19% -11  4% 10 - 6 1 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +3 C+ B D+ C +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 16 Texas Tech L 73 - 92 39% -16  0% 10 - 7 1 - 5 C- -4 B +7 B+ A B- F -11 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 50 TCU L 90 - 97 67% -4  24% 10 - 8 1 - 6 C +1 A- +10 A+ A D D- -8 D+ A D+
 Wed, Jan 28 45 @Cincinnati L 57 - 67 42% -9  0% 10 - 9 1 - 7 C+ +5 D -5 D+ C A A- +9 A- B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 56 @West Virginia W 63 - 53 48% +5  92% 11 - 9 2 - 7 A+ +23 B +7 B+ A F A+ +18 A+ A- A
 Wed, Feb 4 77 Colorado W 86 - 67 78% +17  96% 12 - 9 3 - 7 A+ +23 A +13 A A+ B+ A +11 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 8 @Iowa St. L 69 - 72 15% -4  13% 12 - 10 3 - 8 A +21 A+ +15 C A+ A+ B +6 C A A+
 Tue, Feb 10 21 BYU L 94 - 99 42% -2  39% 12 - 11 3 - 9 B +10 A+ +17 A+ B+ C- D- -8 D+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 14 11 Louisville L 79 - 86 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 101 @Kansas St. W 85 - 81 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 69 Arizona St. W 84 - 77 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 76 - 85 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 52 @Central Florida L 82 - 83 46%
 Wed, Mar 4 5 @Houston L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Mar 7 110 Utah W 86 - 74 86%
Totals 15 - 15 6 - 12 +13 A- +9 B A B B- +3 B- B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A- B A- 29% 30% 40% F+ B A- B+ A B B- C+ B- B- C- D+ B- C 23% 40% 37% A+ B- C+ B B- C B C- B
1.22 67% 46% 37% +7 -2 1.12 39% 1.2 .45 15% .33 74% .24 1.04 59% 41% 32% +1 -3 0.96 29% 0.9 .27 17% .26 73% .24
Nov
3		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 20% 33% 47% F A+ C+ D C- B+ A+ F+ A C+ F D D- F 19% 37% 44% A+ D A+ F A+ D B+ F B-
1.24 100% 39% 42% +15 -3 1.25 33% 0.8 .25 14% .48 66% .31 1.04 82% 41% 38% +9 -4 1.12 6% 2.5 .16 15% .17 91% .15
Nov
9		 Washington B- A+ A+ D- A+ 16% 43% 41% F A- D C+ D+ A- A+ C A+ A C- F A+ B 15% 56% 30% A+ A C- A+ A+ B- B A+ A-
1.09 88% 50% 29% +7 -5 1.06 21% 1.0 .21 13% .46 69% .32 0.97 63% 50% 19% +1 -6 0.91 38% 0.6 .24 17% .25 67% .17
Nov
14		 Tarleton St. A+ A A+ A- A+ 15% 33% 52% F B+ B- A+ A+ B D+ A+ B- D- F F C F 10% 71% 18% A+ F F A+ F A+ B+ F B-
1.29 71% 63% 40% +15 -3 1.25 36% 1.9 .68 21% .34 85% .29 1.11 100% 54% 33% +16 -9 1.16 60% 0.8 .47 29% .27 86% .23
Nov
24		 Creighton A- F D+ B- F+ 42% 33% 25% C- F+ A+ A A+ B- A- A- A- B B+ D+ F+ C+ 38% 13% 48% D C B A- B+ A A F B
1.20 39% 33% 36% -9 -1 0.82 52% 1.2 .64 15% .28 75% .21 1.09 55% 43% 40% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.9 .23 19% .18 90% .16
Nov
25		 St. John's A F+ B D C- 42% 22% 36% C C- A+ D- A A+ C A+ B+ F+ D+ C F F 48% 15% 37% C F A+ F F+ C B B+ B+
1.13 43% 42% 30% -7 0 0.87 51% 0.8 .39 15% .28 88% .25 1.34 62% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.9 .55 14% .36 68% .24
Nov
26		 San Diego St. A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 12% 45% A- A+ B- B+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ C- D- B- D- C- 31% 27% 42% C+ C- A+ B A+ D B- F C
1.29 71% 50% 36% +9 +1 1.22 30% 1.0 .30 13% .49 73% .36 1.15 71% 33% 39% +6 -1 1.11 19% 1.0 .19 14% .28 82% .23
Dec
2		 Sacramento St. A+ A+ A+ F A+ 33% 35% 33% F A+ A+ A A+ C A+ C+ A+ D- F B B+ B- 8% 45% 47% A+ B+ F F F B- F F F
1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44 1.16 75% 30% 29% -5 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41
Dec
6		 Memphis C+ D+ F D D 26% 26% 48% D D A D+ B B+ A+ D+ A C B- D A+ A 44% 31% 25% B A D C- D F F D- F
1.00 54% 23% 29% -8 -2 0.82 42% 0.8 .35 18% .43 68% .29 1.10 54% 41% 14% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .48 13% .40 76% .31
Dec
10		 Norfolk St. A- A+ D+ A A 29% 37% 34% F B B B- B+ B- D+ A+ C+ B F C+ A+ C- 8% 72% 21% A+ A- A- B- B+ D- F+ D+ F+
1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26 0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28
Dec
19		 Alcorn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 29% 35% F A+ A F C- C B- A+ A A+ F A+ F+ A 10% 65% 25% A+ A+ C- B+ C+ D+ A+ F A
1.45 90% 63% 47% +26 -1 1.51 48% 0.9 .43 18% .36 87% .31 0.72 83% 15% 40% -10 -8 0.67 26% 0.7 .19 18% .11 86% .09
Dec
21		 Southern A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 19% 35% 46% F A+ A C+ A A+ B- C+ B- B- F C+ A+ B 7% 61% 31% A+ A B- F F F+ A A+ A+
1.59 82% 45% 54% +21 -3 1.37 42% 1.1 .48 6% .39 77% .30 0.96 75% 33% 24% -6 -7 0.74 29% 1.6 .45 13% .23 57% .13
Jan
3		 TCU C+ F+ A+ F F+ 43% 17% 39% B D- A D B- A- A A+ A+ B A+ C+ D- A 41% 22% 37% B- A F A+ B B- F A- D
0.98 45% 50% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .32 17% .34 78% .26 1.07 40% 36% 39% -5 0 0.92 48% 0.7 .33 17% .43 65% .28
Jan
7		 Iowa St. D C F F F 15% 38% 48% F F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ F A+ A F C- A+ A+ 18% 53% 29% A+ A+ C+ B+ B+ B C- A C+
0.87 57% 17% 13% -23 -4 0.48 43% 1.2 .51 20% .53 59% .31 1.01 78% 38% 21% -1 -6 0.88 38% 0.9 .36 17% .35 60% .21
Jan
10		 Houston D+ A F A+ B+ 9% 43% 49% F C+ B- B B D A+ F A+ C F C- B B 7% 44% 48% A+ A- F A C D- B- A+ A-
0.89 67% 20% 41% -2 -5 0.89 31% 1.0 .31 26% .67 58% .39 1.24 100% 42% 31% +3 -5 0.96 49% 0.8 .40 8% .23 62% .14
Jan
13		 Oklahoma St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C+ D+ A C C+ B C+ D+ B 59% 6% 35% F C+ F+ C+ D C A+ A+ A+
1.38 65% 56% 52% +17 +1 1.38 36% 1.3 .48 18% .25 79% .20 1.16 53% 33% 37% -2 +3 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .21 58% .12
Jan
16		 Kansas C+ F D+ C C 34% 19% 47% B- C+ C+ A- B D+ D+ B C- C C F B C 45% 27% 29% C+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
0.94 39% 30% 32% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.0 .27 17% .18 70% .13 1.21 64% 53% 31% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.9 .18 6% .21 85% .18
Jan
20		 Texas Tech B A+ B+ C A+ 10% 51% 39% F B+ A- A A B- A F C F F F F F 10% 40% 50% A+ F A+ C+ A+ A- A- F B
1.08 100% 44% 32% +6 -6 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 16% .35 50% .18 1.37 80% 52% 62% +29 -5 1.50 22% 1.0 .22 19% .20 82% .17
Jan
24		 TCU A- A+ A+ B A+ 11% 43% 47% F A+ A+ C- A D A+ B A+ D- F F+ F F 8% 66% 26% A+ D+ A+ F A D+ F F F
1.14 100% 60% 36% +16 -5 1.23 40% 1.0 .40 23% .59 72% .42 1.22 100% 45% 46% +13 -8 1.12 19% 1.3 .26 14% .63 81% .51
Jan
28		 Cincinnati D C- C- F D- 47% 16% 37% A- D+ B- F+ C A F F F A- A+ F A- B 16% 33% 51% A+ A- A+ F B+ F+ B F C+
0.83 50% 38% 21% -11 +1 0.82 27% 0.9 .24 15% .15 56% .09 0.98 44% 50% 29% -2 -3 0.91 21% 1.3 .26 12% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 West Virginia B C A+ C+ B+ 43% 20% 37% B- B+ A A- A F F A- F A+ A A+ B- A+ 49% 10% 41% F+ A+ D+ A+ A- A D- C+ D
1.04 55% 44% 35% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.2 .40 23% .11 80% .09 0.88 47% 0% 31% -11 +2 0.85 34% 0.8 .29 22% .38 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Colorado A A+ A+ B+ A+ 9% 47% 45% F A C- A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A F C+ F C 9% 62% 30% A+ A- A+ A A+ C+ F+ A- D+
1.27 75% 55% 38% +12 -6 1.15 25% 2.2 .54 13% .42 80% .34 0.99 75% 38% 43% +5 -7 0.98 24% 0.8 .18 15% .40 70% .28
Feb
7		 Iowa St. A+ A+ D+ D- C+ 17% 25% 58% D+ C C A+ A+ A+ F+ D F+ B F D A C- 33% 28% 40% A C D- A+ A A+ D- B+ D+
1.10 75% 33% 29% -3 -2 0.92 26% 2.6 .68 14% .17 67% .11 1.15 93% 42% 29% +10 -1 1.19 45% 0.6 .29 22% .39 63% .25
Feb
10		 BYU A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 2% 62% 36% F A+ A C- B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D- F F A+ F 12% 59% 29% A+ D+ B- D- C- F D+ D- D-
1.27 100% 52% 47% +16 -8 1.19 36% 1.1 .39 18% .41 80% .33 1.34 100% 68% 18% +15 -7 1.19 35% 1.3 .47 7% .36 80% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 0.3 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 3.5 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 1.1 10.7 2.3 14.1 10th
11th 0.4 10.8 11.7 0.3 23.2 11th
12th 0.0 3.8 16.7 2.5 0.0 23.0 12th
13th 0.5 10.2 6.5 0.1 17.3 13th
14th 0.1 4.5 8.0 0.7 13.3 14th
15th 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.5 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.2 16th
Total 0.8 6.1 22.6 35.8 27.0 7.3 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.6% 87.1% 1.6% 85.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 86.9%
8-10 7.3% 63.9% 1.4% 62.5% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.3 0.0 2.6 63.4%
7-11 27.0% 25.1% 0.6% 24.5% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.1 5.0 0.2 20.2 24.7%
6-12 35.8% 5.7% 0.3% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 0.1 33.7 5.5%
5-13 22.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 22.4 0.7%
4-14 6.1% 6.1
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 0.4% 13.8% 10.4 85.8 13.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%