Baylor
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +11.1 #52
Pace 69.3 #168
Improvement -2.5 #296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #24 B A+ A- B- F
Defense #91 B- B- C A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 1.34 #23 -2.2 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #26 0.85 #55 +5.3 #9
Three Pointers 39% #214 1.12 #47 +1.2 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #61 +4.3 #61
Freethrows 19.4 #96 72% #185 14.1 #111
Second Chance 40.3% #7 1.12 #91 0.45 #16
Turnovers 13.7% #34
Total Offense +9.0 #24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #363 1.21 #250 +7.9 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #1 0.81 #272 -7.6 #365
Three Pointers 38% #258 0.98 #136 +2.0 #116
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #104 +2.4 #105
Freethrows 13.5 #18 73% #222 9.9 #22
Second Chance 29.6% #136 0.97 #77 0.29 #101
Turnovers 16.0% #210
Total Defense +3.1 #91

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.8% #351 -6.5% #1
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.7% #22 2.0% #218
Possession Length 16.6 #109 17.7 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #30 0.18 #198
Improvement -3.1 #337 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.4% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 42.6% 22.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.3% 42.3% 22.3%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.5
.500 or above 74.2% 82.6% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.3% 23.3% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.4% 9.2%
First Four10.5% 11.5% 8.6%
First Round30.9% 37.4% 18.8%
Second Round15.3% 18.8% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 4.9% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 45 - 12
Quad 24 - 29 - 14
Quad 32 - 011 - 15
Quad 46 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 96 - 81 95% +6  1 - 0 +9 +12 A+ D+ B -5 F A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 47 Washington W 78 - 69 66% +4  2 - 0 +17 +7 A D A +10 A- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 189 Tarleton St. W 94 - 81 93% +10  3 - 0 +8 +15 B+ A+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 44 Creighton W 81 - 74 53% +5  4 - 0 +18 +14 F A+ C+ +4 C A- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 18 St. John's L 81 - 96 31% -12  4 - 1 +2 +15 C A- A+ -12 F F C
 Wed, Nov 26 46 San Diego St. W 91 - 81 54% +4  5 - 1 +21 +25 A+ B- A+ -4 C- A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 290 Sacramento St. W 110 - 88 97% +7  6 - 1 +12 +23 A+ A+ C -13 B- F B
 Sat, Dec 6 92 @Memphis L 71 - 78 63% -2  6 - 2 +2 +5 D- B- B -3 A+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 291 Norfolk St. W 97 - 67 97% +16  7 - 2 +20 +13 B+ B+ C+ +4 A A- D-
 Fri, Dec 19 347 Alcorn St. W 113 - 56 99% +29  8 - 2 +42 +21 A+ C C- +14 A+ B- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 246 Southern W 111 - 67 96% +15  9 - 2 +36 +37 A+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 45 @TCU L 63 - 69 42% -7  9 - 3 0 - 1 +8 +5 F A+ A +3 A+ A- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 8 Iowa St. L 60 - 70 31% -3  9 - 4 0 - 2 +7 -3 F A+ A +10 A+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 4 Houston L 55 - 77 27% -11  9 - 5 0 - 3 -3 -0 C+ B D+ -6 B+ C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 61 @Oklahoma St. W 94 - 79 51% +13  10 - 5 1 - 3 +27 +28 A+ A+ C -1 B- C- C+
 Fri, Jan 16 19 @Kansas L 62 - 80 22% -11  10 - 6 1 - 4 +2 +4 C+ B D -3 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 15 Texas Tech L 73 - 92 39% -16  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +9 B A+ B- -14 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 45 TCU W 77 - 73 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 49 @Cincinnati L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 52 @West Virginia L 71 - 72 45%
 Wed, Feb 4 78 Colorado W 84 - 76 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 8 @Iowa St. L 72 - 83 15%
 Tue, Feb 10 12 BYU L 78 - 82 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 13 Louisville L 79 - 85 28%
 Tue, Feb 17 85 @Kansas St. W 84 - 82 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 88 Arizona St. W 86 - 77 79%
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Arizona L 77 - 85 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 @Central Florida L 80 - 81 45%
 Wed, Mar 4 4 @Houston L 65 - 78 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 104 Utah W 86 - 75 84%
Totals 16 - 14 7 - 11 +12 +9 B A+ A- +3 B- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.1 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.6 5.2 4.6 0.5 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.2 4.7 7.9 1.5 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 2.4 9.2 3.3 0.1 15.0 10th
11th 0.6 7.9 6.0 0.5 0.0 15.0 11th
12th 0.2 3.8 7.8 1.2 13.0 12th
13th 0.0 1.1 5.6 2.3 0.1 9.1 13th
14th 0.3 2.9 2.7 0.2 6.1 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.7 13.0 20.8 21.7 17.8 10.8 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.4% 98.9% 2.9% 96.0% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
10-8 4.8% 98.6% 1.9% 96.8% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 98.6%
9-9 10.8% 91.7% 0.8% 91.0% 8.5 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.9 91.7%
8-10 17.8% 64.6% 0.5% 64.1% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.6 3.9 0.0 6.3 64.4%
7-11 21.7% 28.7% 0.4% 28.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.1 0.2 15.5 28.5%
6-12 20.8% 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 19.4 6.8%
5-13 13.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.0 0.5%
4-14 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 6.7
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 35.6% 0.4% 35.1% 9.1 64.4 35.3%