Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#139
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#152
Pace67.4#205
Improvement+4.5#25

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot+3.7#78
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#234
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#28
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement+2.4#59

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#221
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks+1.8#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#306
Freethrows+1.3#91
Improvement+2.1#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 18.0% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 22.4% 35.5% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.2% 18.0% 13.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 412 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 54   @ USC L 51-77 15%     0 - 1 -13.5 -14.1 -1.0
  Nov 07, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 8%     0 - 2 +4.6 +16.9 -13.4
  Nov 11, 2024 296   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 73%     0 - 3 -10.9 -7.9 -3.5
  Nov 14, 2024 280   Morehead St. W 76-62 84%     1 - 3 +4.9 -1.2 +5.8
  Nov 17, 2024 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 67%     2 - 3 +1.7 +2.9 -1.8
  Nov 25, 2024 289   Tennessee St. W 85-78 84%     3 - 3 -2.5 +1.2 -4.2
  Nov 27, 2024 147   Bryant W 84-76 61%     4 - 3 +6.6 +12.1 -5.3
  Dec 03, 2024 110   Lipscomb L 62-80 51%     4 - 4 -17.0 -8.0 -9.8
  Dec 12, 2024 230   @ Evansville W 75-67 61%     5 - 4 +6.6 +8.3 -1.3
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 85-63 95%     6 - 4 +5.1 +16.1 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2024 52   @ Indiana L 65-74 15%     6 - 5 +3.5 +0.4 +2.7
  Jan 01, 2025 221   @ Mercer L 94-99 OT 59%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -5.9 +5.6 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 81-68 88%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +1.4 +9.7 -7.4
  Jan 09, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro L 75-78 63%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -5.1 +10.4 -15.9
  Jan 12, 2025 302   VMI W 91-66 86%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +14.5 +22.7 -5.6
  Jan 15, 2025 151   Wofford W 83-81 OT 62%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +0.3 +7.9 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 165   @ Furman W 75-71 45%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +6.7 +5.5 +1.3
  Jan 23, 2025 109   Samford L 69-73 50%     10 - 8 4 - 3 -2.6 -1.5 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 152   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-63 43%     11 - 8 5 - 3 +11.2 -0.6 +11.8
  Jan 29, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina W 84-60 86%     12 - 8 6 - 3 +13.7 -1.1 +12.1
  Feb 01, 2025 221   Mercer W 93-84 75%     13 - 8 7 - 3 +3.2 +11.4 -8.9
  Feb 05, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 165   Furman W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 12, 2025 109   @ Samford L 76-81 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   East Tennessee St. W 75-72 64%    
  Feb 19, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 83-66 94%    
  Feb 22, 2025 358   The Citadel W 79-61 96%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 70-72 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   @ VMI W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.4 9.7 9.2 2.1 22.4 1st
2nd 0.8 12.9 13.5 2.1 29.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 6.4 12.3 1.5 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.3 2.5 14.6 4th
5th 0.3 5.1 3.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.4 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 2.2 9.4 21.0 29.1 24.7 11.3 2.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
14-4 81.7% 9.2    5.6 3.4 0.2
13-5 39.1% 9.7    1.7 4.8 2.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.7% 1.4    0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 9.3 8.5 3.5 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.5
14-4 11.3% 25.7% 25.7% 13.2 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.0 8.4
13-5 24.7% 19.8% 19.8% 13.8 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.6 19.8
12-6 29.1% 13.5% 13.5% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 25.2
11-7 21.0% 10.2% 10.2% 14.3 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.0 18.8
10-8 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.7
9-9 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
8-10 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.8 4.4 7.2 2.8 0.1 84.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.5 54.1 44.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%