IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-2.0	#191
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.9	#149

Pace	64.1	#310
Improvement	+1.1	#126

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#236	D-	C-	A-	C-	B
Defense	#153	C	D	C	A+	D+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	48%	#8	1.08	#270	+3.8	#62
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#196	0.76	#167	-0.4	#193
Three Pointers	33%	#333	0.80	#358	-7.9	#356
1st FG Attempt			0.93	#304	-4.5	#304
Freethrows	18.2	#158	66%	#344	12.0	#225
Second Chance	24.7%	#327	1.20	#27	0.30	#227
Turnovers					13.5%	#26
Total Offense					-2.4	#236

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	22%	#364	1.30	#329	+8.2	#6
2 Pt. Jumpers	7%	#365	0.83	#296	+4.7	#1
Three Pointers	71%	#1	0.95	#99	-13.0	#365
1st FG Attempt			1.02	#184	-0.1	#183
Freethrows	11.7	#4	77%	#350	9.0	#10
Second Chance	32.7%	#267	1.14	#291	0.37	#303
Turnovers					17.0%	#146
Total Defense					+0.4	#153

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.7%	#74	1.0%	#256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-10.4%	#334	-0.8%	#168
Possession Length	17.6	#200	18.3	#320
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.16	#218	0.15	#112
Improvement	-0.7	#223	+1.8	#74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.9%	11.8%	6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	14.0	14.2

.500 or above	98.9%	99.8%	98.5%
.500 or above in Conference	92.1%	98.3%	89.1%
Conference Champion	3.5%	7.4%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	7.9%	11.8%	6.0%
Second Round	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	6 - 5	6 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 4	19 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	166 @Toledo	W	76 - 74	33%	+9	1 - 0		+4	+8	A-	B-	C	-4	F	B	B
Thu, Nov 6	347 Alcorn St.	W	76 - 70	89%	-3	2 - 0		-9	-6	D	C	F	-3	F	A+	A+
Thu, Nov 13	322 Central Michigan	W	66 - 64	78%	+3	3 - 0		-8	-3	F	B-	B+	-5	B	F	C
Sat, Nov 15	364 Coppin St.	W	72 - 62	94%	+5	4 - 0		-10	-6	F	F	B	-3	A	F	F
Wed, Nov 19	216 @Jacksonville St.	W	71 - 65	43%	-6	5 - 0		+6	+3	C-	C-	A+	+3	C	B-	B-
Fri, Nov 21	117 @UAB	L	72 - 80	23%	-5	5 - 1		-2	+9	C+	D-	A+	-12	F	C	B
Sun, Nov 30	345 @Texas San Antonio	W	82 - 58	75%	+14	6 - 1		+15	+5	C-	C	C	+10	A+	C	F
Tue, Dec 2	133 New Mexico St.	W	77 - 75	36%	-1	7 - 1		+4	+8	D-	C	A+	-4	C+	C	A+
Fri, Dec 5	135 @East Tennessee St.	L	65 - 91	27%	-5	7 - 2		-21	-4	C	F	A	-18	C	F	F
Sun, Dec 14	127 North Texas	L	57 - 58	46%	-4	7 - 3		-2	-6	F	A-	A+	+4	A+	F	A-
Wed, Dec 17	361 @Louisiana Monroe	W	96 - 92 2OT	84%	-7	8 - 3	1 - 0	-9	-3	D	C	F	-7	F	F	A+
Sat, Dec 20	263 @Texas St.	L	65 - 67	52%	+6	8 - 4	1 - 1	-5	-3	F	D	B	-2	A	F	C
Wed, Dec 31	312 @Louisiana	W	63 - 58	65%	+2	9 - 4	2 - 1	-1	+6	D-	B-	D-	-6	C	F	D-
Sat, Jan 3	112 @Troy	L	49 - 59	21%	-5	9 - 5	2 - 2	-4	-12	F	D	C	+6	A+	B+	C-
Sat, Jan 10	251 Georgia Southern	W	87 - 71	72%	+9	10 - 5	3 - 2	+8	+6	A+	F	C	+2	B+	B-	D+
Thu, Jan 15	145 Arkansas St.	W	91 - 87 OT	50%	+0	11 - 5	4 - 2	+2	+3	D	D-	A+	-2	C	C	A
Sat, Jan 17	312 Louisiana	L	56 - 59	83%	-1	11 - 6	4 - 3	-15	-8	F	B-	A	-8	D	D+	F
Thu, Jan 22	231 @James Madison	W	90 - 83	46%	+2	12 - 6	5 - 3	+6	+8	F	A+	A+	-2	F	D	A+
Sat, Jan 24	163 @Marshall	L	70 - 75	33%
Thu, Jan 29	252 Coastal Carolina	W	72 - 66	71%
Sat, Jan 31	273 Georgia St.	W	72 - 65	75%
Wed, Feb 4	206 @Appalachian St.	L	64 - 66	41%
Sat, Feb 7	201 Buffalo	W	74 - 70	63%
Thu, Feb 12	244 @Southern Miss	L	69 - 70	48%
Sat, Feb 14	145 @Arkansas St.	L	73 - 79	29%
Thu, Feb 19	263 Texas St.	W	71 - 64	73%
Sat, Feb 21	112 Troy	L	69 - 71	41%
Wed, Feb 25	361 Louisiana Monroe	W	82 - 65	94%
Fri, Feb 27	244 Southern Miss	W	72 - 66	70%
Totals						18 - 11	11 - 7	-2	-2	D-	C-	A-	+0	C	D	C

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.2	1.6	0.5				3.5	1st
2nd												1.1	6.1	6.3	1.6	0.1				15.2	2nd
3rd											0.7	8.5	10.4	2.4	0.0					22.0	3rd
4th										0.1	5.5	11.0	2.4	0.1						19.0	4th
5th										1.1	9.3	2.9	0.1							13.3	5th
6th									0.0	4.0	5.2	0.2								9.4	6th
7th									0.4	5.4	0.9	0.0								6.8	7th
8th								0.0	1.6	2.7	0.1									4.4	8th
9th								0.2	2.3	0.5										3.1	9th
10th							0.0	0.7	1.3	0.0										2.1	10th
11th						0.0	0.1	0.7	0.1											0.9	11th
12th						0.0	0.1	0.2												0.3	12th
13th						0.0	0.0													0.0	13th
14th																					14th

Total						0.0	0.3	1.8	5.8	13.8	21.7	23.6	19.2	10.0	3.3	0.5					Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	86.8%	0.5	0.3	0.2
14-4	48.2%	1.6	0.6	0.8	0.1
13-5	12.4%	1.2	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.0
12-6	1.4%	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.5%	3.5	1.1	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	0.5%	41.5%	41.5%		12.8												0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3
14-4	3.3%	26.6%	26.6%		13.6												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.1		2.4
13-5	10.0%	19.7%	19.7%		14.0												0.0	0.5	1.0	0.4	0.0	8.0
12-6	19.2%	13.7%	13.7%		14.2												0.0	0.3	1.4	0.9	0.0	16.6
11-7	23.6%	6.2%	6.2%		14.4												0.0	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.0	22.1
10-8	21.7%	2.6%	2.6%		14.7													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.0	21.1
9-9	13.8%	1.0%	1.0%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.0	13.7
8-10	5.8%	1.2%	1.2%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	5.7
7-11	1.8%	0.3%	0.3%		15.0															0.0		1.8
6-12	0.3%																					0.3
5-13	0.0%																					0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	7.9%	7.9%	0.0%	14.1																	92.1	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	12.7												38.9	52.8	8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%