Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#109
Pace65.4#288
Improvement+1.7#41

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#253
First Shot-5.9#331
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#43
Layup/Dunks-1.0#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows-6.4#359
Improvement+1.2#45

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#130
First Shot+3.2#85
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#297
Layups/Dunks-7.4#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#31
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#32
Freethrows+2.2#76
Improvement+0.5#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 16.4% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 70.4% 79.0% 56.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 87.6% 78.7%
Conference Champion 19.2% 22.2% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round14.1% 16.2% 10.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Neutral) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 19   @ Florida L 60-81 5%     0 - 1 -3.9 -4.5 -0.3
  Nov 11, 2024 133   @ Furman L 69-78 28%     0 - 2 -4.1 -5.3 +1.6
  Nov 14, 2024 314   South Carolina St. W 71-62 83%     1 - 2 -2.6 -7.6 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 23%     2 - 2 +16.4 +5.9 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 252   Mercer W 70-67 63%    
  Nov 30, 2024 54   @ Georgia L 62-76 11%    
  Dec 10, 2024 73   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-80 13%    
  Dec 14, 2024 188   East Tennessee St. W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 152   Lipscomb W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 336   @ Bellarmine W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 186   North Alabama W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 297   @ Queens W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 218   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 177   North Florida W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 327   @ Stetson W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 336   Bellarmine W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 13, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 186   @ North Alabama L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 218   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-64 45%    
  Feb 20, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 24, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 327   Stetson W 73-62 83%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 5.7 4.3 1.8 0.5 19.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.3 6.5 9.2 11.4 13.0 13.4 12.5 10.6 7.4 4.5 1.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.9% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 94.7% 4.3    3.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 77.2% 5.7    3.8 1.7 0.2
14-4 44.3% 4.7    1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 15.6% 1.9    0.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 12.0 5.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.8% 54.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 42.3% 42.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-2 4.5% 38.1% 38.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.8
15-3 7.4% 31.0% 31.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.1
14-4 10.6% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 8.1
13-5 12.5% 19.4% 19.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 10.1
12-6 13.4% 12.7% 12.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 11.7
11-7 13.0% 10.8% 10.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 11.6
10-8 11.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.7
9-9 9.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.9
8-10 6.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.3
7-11 4.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 4.3 4.0 1.5 85.6 0.0%